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January 8th - The European Central Bank released its inflation survey report: In November, consumers expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months remained unchanged at 1.2%. Expectations for nominal spending growth over the next 12 months fell to 3.4% from 3.5% in October, with respondents in the three lowest income brackets showing slightly higher spending growth expectations than those in the two highest income brackets. Economic growth expectations for the next 12 months became more negative, falling to -1.3% in November from -1.1% in October. Expectations for the unemployment rate over the next 12 months fell to 10.9% in November from 11.0% in October. As in previous months, low-income households had the highest expectations for the unemployment rate over the next 12 months (13.4%), while high-income households had the lowest (9.4%). Consumers still expect the future unemployment rate to be only slightly higher than the perceived current unemployment rate (10.4%), indicating a generally stable labor market outlook.On January 8th, the European Central Bank released its inflation survey report: In November, the median inflation expectation for the next 12 months remained unchanged from October at 2.8%. Inflation expectations for the next three years remained unchanged at 2.5%, and similarly, inflation expectations for the next five years remained unchanged at 2.2%. Furthermore, uncertainty regarding inflation expectations for the next 12 months also remained stable in November. The average perceived inflation rate and short-term inflation expectations reported by respondents in lower-income groups remained slightly higher than those in higher-income groups, a trend that has persisted since 2023. However, the overall trends in perceived inflation and inflation expectations remained relatively consistent across different income groups. The perceived and expected inflation rates of younger respondents (18-34 years old) continued to be lower than those of older respondents (35-54 years old and 55-70 years old).On January 8th, Country Garden (02007.HK) announced that it had completed the early cash repayment of three bonds on December 26, 2025, and the bonds resumed trading on January 9th. The three bonds are "H20 Country Garden 4", "H20 Country Garden 3" and "H19 Country Garden 3".The European Central Banks 3-year CPI forecast for the Eurozone in November is 2.5%, unchanged from the previous reading of 2.50%.The European Central Banks 1-year CPI forecast for the Eurozone in November is 2.8%, down from the previous forecast of 2.7% and the previous reading of 2.80%.

Gold price prediction: XAU/USD slips to $1,690 on Fed forecasts; US retail sales expected

Daniel Rogers

Sep 15, 2022 11:37

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Gold price (XAU/USD) has adopted a downward trend after falling below Wednesday's minimum of $1,693.67. The precious metal is falling nearing $1,690.00 as bears take control of rising probabilities for a massive Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike in the near future.

 

Earlier symptoms of weariness have dissipated as a result of Tuesday's higher-than-anticipated US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Despite declining gasoline costs, the headline US CPI was announced at 8.3%, which was higher than the 8.2% prediction. The investment community believed that inflation had begun to respond to the Federal Reserve's (Fed) raising interest rates and that a succession of declining price pressures would soon enable the Fed to adopt a 'neutral' stance.

 

However, a US inflation report that exceeded forecasts demonstrates that the road to a neutral monetary policy is far from complete. Moreover, predictions of a one percent rate increase are currently ascendant.

 

In today's session, the US Retail Sales report will be of paramount importance. The economic data estimates do not indicate any improvement in retail demand. This could be the outcome of a fall in consumer confidence in the economy.

 

The gold price has experienced a precipitous decline after demonstrating a textbook-style test and the collapse of a consolidation pattern. On an hourly scale, the consolidation formed within the region of $1,697.12-1,709.62. At $1,698.70, the yellow metal is trading below the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which increases the downside filters.