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June 16th - On Monday, local time, the spot delivery price of natural gas at the Wahaha Hub in Texas, a key indicator of shale basin prices, was 35 cents per million British thermal units (MMBtu), marking its first positive close since February and ending a 131-day streak of prices below zero. High temperatures, increased production following maintenance of some pipelines, and recent signs of expansion of key pipelines all contributed to the price increase. This positive news is a good sign for producers such as Pemlin Resources and Devon Energy, which had previously shut down some wells with extremely high gas-to-oil ratios to avoid further financial strain.On June 16th, PGIM, a US asset management firm, held a fringe view that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates three times this year to curb an overheated economy, before reversing the rate hikes in 2027. The firm had previously predicted a rate cut by the Fed this year in April. PGIM stated that the US economy is "exceptionally strong" and inflation remains persistently high, necessitating a new strategy. Given this backdrop, and considering the Feds failure to achieve its 2% target for five consecutive years, PGIM expects the Fed to raise rates three times this year to bolster its credibility and anchor inflation expectations. PGIM stated, "If the rate hikes are described as a precautionary measure to address supply-side inflation and recent volatility in long-term Treasury bonds, then Warsh will gain political support." However, PGIM indicated that it expects the Fed to "reverse these rate hikes relatively quickly, implementing three rate cuts in 2027 and another in 2028, ultimately reaching a rate of 3.375%—below current levels and potentially close to the neutral rate."June 16 - According to Irans PressTV, sources revealed that at least three Iranian oil tankers and two cargo ships carrying essential supplies have successfully broken through the US naval blockade. These vessels continued their voyages on Monday evening local time, marking the first practical victory of the newly reached memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States. According to sources, these ships, which had been stranded for months under the US blockade, have successfully navigated international waters. This comes less than 24 hours after the US and Iran reached the memorandum of understanding, which calls for an immediate end to the illegal US naval blockade of Iran as part of a comprehensive ceasefire.According to The Information, Qualcomm (QCOM.O) is in talks to acquire Tenstorrent to expand its artificial intelligence chip capabilities.According to Iranian television reports, three oil tankers and two ships carrying essential Iranian supplies have broken through the US naval blockade.

Gold price prediction: XAU/USD slips to $1,690 on Fed forecasts; US retail sales expected

Daniel Rogers

Sep 15, 2022 11:37

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Gold price (XAU/USD) has adopted a downward trend after falling below Wednesday's minimum of $1,693.67. The precious metal is falling nearing $1,690.00 as bears take control of rising probabilities for a massive Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike in the near future.

 

Earlier symptoms of weariness have dissipated as a result of Tuesday's higher-than-anticipated US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Despite declining gasoline costs, the headline US CPI was announced at 8.3%, which was higher than the 8.2% prediction. The investment community believed that inflation had begun to respond to the Federal Reserve's (Fed) raising interest rates and that a succession of declining price pressures would soon enable the Fed to adopt a 'neutral' stance.

 

However, a US inflation report that exceeded forecasts demonstrates that the road to a neutral monetary policy is far from complete. Moreover, predictions of a one percent rate increase are currently ascendant.

 

In today's session, the US Retail Sales report will be of paramount importance. The economic data estimates do not indicate any improvement in retail demand. This could be the outcome of a fall in consumer confidence in the economy.

 

The gold price has experienced a precipitous decline after demonstrating a textbook-style test and the collapse of a consolidation pattern. On an hourly scale, the consolidation formed within the region of $1,697.12-1,709.62. At $1,698.70, the yellow metal is trading below the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which increases the downside filters.