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On February 19th, Nick Timiraos, often referred to as the "Federal Reserve mouthpiece," wrote an article on the Fed meeting minutes, stating that sometimes what the Fed doesnt mention is more interesting. In every meeting last year (up to December), staff projected that inflation would return to 2% by 2027. In December, this projection was pushed back to 2028. However, the January meeting minutes did not specify a concrete timeframe for when inflation would reach 2%. Instead, the minutes indicated that the projected figure was "slightly higher, but balanced" compared to the December projection, and that inflation was expected to return to its "previous downward trend" as the impact of tariffs was expected to end by mid-year. However, the key phrase from the December minutes ("and to reach 2% by 2028") was absent from the January minutes.February 19th - Today (February 19th) is the third day of the Lunar New Year, the fifth day of the Spring Festival holiday. The national railway system is expected to transport 13.4 million passengers today, with 747 additional passenger trains planned. Regarding ticket sales, tickets for March 5th (the seventeenth day of the first lunar month) went on sale today.The yield on Japans 20-year government bonds rose 1 basis point to 2.98%.1. All three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.26% to 49,662.66 points, the S&P 500 rose 0.56% to 6,881.31 points, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.78% to 22,753.63 points. Goldman Sachs and Salesforce rose nearly 2%, leading the Dow Jones. The Wind U.S. Tech Big Seven Index rose 0.77%, Amazon rose nearly 2%, and Nvidia rose more than 1%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 0.04%, Canadian Solar rose nearly 4%, and 21Vianet fell more than 9%. 2. All three major European stock indexes closed higher. The German DAX rose 1.12% to 25,278.21 points, the French CAC40 rose 0.81% to 8,429.03 points, and the UK FTSE 100 rose 1.23% to 10,686.18 points. 3. The WTI crude oil futures contract closed up 4.3% at $64.94 per barrel; the Brent crude oil futures contract rose 4.15% to $70.22 per barrel. 4. International precious metals futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures rising 1.84% to $4996.10 per ounce and COMEX silver futures rising 4.88% to $77.13 per ounce.In January, the RMB accounted for 3.13% of global payments via SWIFT, up from 2.73% in the previous month.

Gold price prediction: XAU/USD slips to $1,690 on Fed forecasts; US retail sales expected

Daniel Rogers

Sep 15, 2022 11:37

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Gold price (XAU/USD) has adopted a downward trend after falling below Wednesday's minimum of $1,693.67. The precious metal is falling nearing $1,690.00 as bears take control of rising probabilities for a massive Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike in the near future.

 

Earlier symptoms of weariness have dissipated as a result of Tuesday's higher-than-anticipated US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Despite declining gasoline costs, the headline US CPI was announced at 8.3%, which was higher than the 8.2% prediction. The investment community believed that inflation had begun to respond to the Federal Reserve's (Fed) raising interest rates and that a succession of declining price pressures would soon enable the Fed to adopt a 'neutral' stance.

 

However, a US inflation report that exceeded forecasts demonstrates that the road to a neutral monetary policy is far from complete. Moreover, predictions of a one percent rate increase are currently ascendant.

 

In today's session, the US Retail Sales report will be of paramount importance. The economic data estimates do not indicate any improvement in retail demand. This could be the outcome of a fall in consumer confidence in the economy.

 

The gold price has experienced a precipitous decline after demonstrating a textbook-style test and the collapse of a consolidation pattern. On an hourly scale, the consolidation formed within the region of $1,697.12-1,709.62. At $1,698.70, the yellow metal is trading below the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which increases the downside filters.