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Futures Commentary by Everbright Futures: On September 14th, COMEX gold opened lower and continued to decline, dipping below 4300 points during the session, closing at $4340.0 per ounce, a drop of 1.56%. Domestic SHFE gold opened lower but rallied in the night session, slightly recovering the gap from the lower opening, closing at 933.98 yuan/gram, a drop of 1.10%. The core logic behind the market decline was the "double whammy" of soaring oil prices and rising US Treasury yields. On Monday, Brent crude broke through $108 per barrel, WTI stabilized above $100, and the Middle East geopolitical conflict took another turn—a key Saudi oil pipeline was attacked and shut down, Houthi rebels attacked Saudi energy facilities, and the scheduled meeting on shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz in Oman was postponed, bringing diplomatic efforts to a standstill. The surge in oil prices directly pushed up inflation expectations, suggesting that major central banks around the world may tighten monetary policy to control inflation. Previously released data from last Friday showed that the US August CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month, and the core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, both exceeding expectations and further reinforcing the logic of interest rate hikes. US Treasury yields are another major obstacle for gold. The 10-year US Treasury yield briefly broke through 5% during the session, reaching a new high since 2023. At the same time, the US dollar index rose to around 99.5, putting additional pressure on dollar-denominated gold. Looking ahead, in the short term, given the unstable geopolitical situation, gold prices may continue their weak and volatile trend. The outcome of the Federal Reserves interest rate meeting and the wording of its policy statement early Thursday morning will likely be the key variable determining whether gold prices can stabilize. If interest rates are raised but the statement does not signal continued tightening, the market may see this as "the bad news is out," and gold may see a window of opportunity for recovery; conversely, if the Fed maintains a hawkish tone, coupled with US Treasury yields remaining above 5%, gold prices may further decline.On September 15th, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry." The plan proposes to consolidate the advantages of the energy electronics industry. It will continue to promote the coordinated development of energy electronics technologies such as photovoltaics, energy storage, terminals, and communications. It will further promote the iterative upgrading of high-efficiency crystalline silicon photovoltaic cell technology, develop next-generation high-efficiency photovoltaic cell technologies and supporting equipment and materials such as perovskite tandem cells, research and promote highly reliable and intelligent photovoltaic modules and intelligent operation and maintenance technologies for photovoltaic systems, and expand "photovoltaic+" application scenarios. It will enhance the innovation capabilities of the entire new battery industry chain, consolidate the competitive advantage of lithium batteries, continue to promote the industrialization of solid-state batteries, sodium batteries, flow batteries, fuel cells, etc., promote the intelligent, green, and integrated development of new batteries, and support the application of new batteries in scenarios such as smart terminals, new energy vehicles, ships, aviation, intelligent robots, construction machinery, and agricultural equipment. It will accelerate the research and development and supply of key power electronics technologies, improve the supply capacity of key core devices and components, and enhance the efficient integration and precise control level of energy storage systems.On September 15th, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry." The plan proposes to promote the research and industrialization of the fifth-generation Reduced Instruction Set Computing (RISC-V) chip and support its application in fields such as artificial intelligence and embedded systems. It also emphasizes deepening collaborative innovation between chips and modules, and strengthening the collaborative design and optimization of algorithms and hardware architecture. The plan aims to consolidate the competitive advantage of communication equipment and accelerate breakthroughs in technologies and products such as high-end data communication, optical communication, mobile communication, satellite communication, and next-generation short-range wireless communication. Furthermore, it promotes the intelligent upgrading of industrial control equipment and constructs an integrated industrial computing system encompassing computing, control, sensing, and transmission. The plan also promotes the high-end development and application of laser equipment, achieving breakthroughs in technologies such as high-performance lasers, ultra-precision laser processing, and precision optomechanical systems. Finally, it guides the digital, integrated, and intelligent development of radar equipment and accelerates its application in emerging fields such as intelligent driving and the low-altitude economy. Finally, it accelerates technological breakthroughs in transfer equipment, improves its flexibility and intelligence, and expands its application to meet the needs of next-generation intelligent manufacturing.Polish Armed Forces: Military air operations have been launched in Polish airspace as Russia launches drone attacks against Ukraine.On September 15th, Judge Thaler of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Boston ruled on September 14th to block the U.S. federal government from implementing a new rule that would limit the length of time foreign students and journalists can stay in the United States without applying for an extension. This new rule was originally scheduled to take effect today (September 15th). Thaler pointed out that the Department of Homeland Securitys rationale for issuing this policy was "extremely weak." The agency had previously cited national security needs and the need to prevent fraud in the visa program as justification. However, Thaler noted that the Department of Homeland Security failed to fulfill its legal obligations in formulating the policy—neither responding to concerns that the policy change might raise nor considering other less burdensome alternatives.

Gold price prediction: XAU/USD slips to $1,690 on Fed forecasts; US retail sales expected

Daniel Rogers

Sep 15, 2022 11:37

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Gold price (XAU/USD) has adopted a downward trend after falling below Wednesday's minimum of $1,693.67. The precious metal is falling nearing $1,690.00 as bears take control of rising probabilities for a massive Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike in the near future.

 

Earlier symptoms of weariness have dissipated as a result of Tuesday's higher-than-anticipated US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Despite declining gasoline costs, the headline US CPI was announced at 8.3%, which was higher than the 8.2% prediction. The investment community believed that inflation had begun to respond to the Federal Reserve's (Fed) raising interest rates and that a succession of declining price pressures would soon enable the Fed to adopt a 'neutral' stance.

 

However, a US inflation report that exceeded forecasts demonstrates that the road to a neutral monetary policy is far from complete. Moreover, predictions of a one percent rate increase are currently ascendant.

 

In today's session, the US Retail Sales report will be of paramount importance. The economic data estimates do not indicate any improvement in retail demand. This could be the outcome of a fall in consumer confidence in the economy.

 

The gold price has experienced a precipitous decline after demonstrating a textbook-style test and the collapse of a consolidation pattern. On an hourly scale, the consolidation formed within the region of $1,697.12-1,709.62. At $1,698.70, the yellow metal is trading below the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which increases the downside filters.