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May 21 – A survey released on Thursday showed that UK factory orders saw their biggest drop since September 2020 this month, while sales price expectations also rose sharply. This situation highlights the predicament facing the Bank of England. Data from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) showed that the UK industrial orders balance in May was -41, the lowest since September 2020; while the industrial price expectations balance was 38, the highest since February 2023. Cameron Martin, senior economist at the CBI, said that in an increasingly uncertain global environment, the Middle East conflict is causing energy costs to rise and triggering further supply chain disruptions, posing new challenges to manufacturers already facing weak demand. The Bank of England is currently closely monitoring the situation to determine whether it needs to raise interest rates to eliminate inflationary pressures caused by the energy price shock triggered by the war with Iran, or whether the decline in demand means that any rise in the overall inflation rate is only temporary.The UKs CBI industrial orders balance fell to -41 in May, the lowest level since September 2020. Meanwhile, the UKs CBI industrial price expectations balance rose to 38 in May, the highest level since February 2023.The UKs CBI industrial price expectations balance for May was 38, compared to 32 in the previous month.The UKs May CBI industrial orders balance was -41, compared to an expected -40 and a previous reading of -38.Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi: If it is necessary for us to be present in the fields of diplomacy, dialogue and negotiation for the benefit of the regime, we will be there with the same strength as the armed forces are in defending the country.

Gold price prediction: XAU/USD slips to $1,690 on Fed forecasts; US retail sales expected

Daniel Rogers

Sep 15, 2022 11:37

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Gold price (XAU/USD) has adopted a downward trend after falling below Wednesday's minimum of $1,693.67. The precious metal is falling nearing $1,690.00 as bears take control of rising probabilities for a massive Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike in the near future.

 

Earlier symptoms of weariness have dissipated as a result of Tuesday's higher-than-anticipated US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Despite declining gasoline costs, the headline US CPI was announced at 8.3%, which was higher than the 8.2% prediction. The investment community believed that inflation had begun to respond to the Federal Reserve's (Fed) raising interest rates and that a succession of declining price pressures would soon enable the Fed to adopt a 'neutral' stance.

 

However, a US inflation report that exceeded forecasts demonstrates that the road to a neutral monetary policy is far from complete. Moreover, predictions of a one percent rate increase are currently ascendant.

 

In today's session, the US Retail Sales report will be of paramount importance. The economic data estimates do not indicate any improvement in retail demand. This could be the outcome of a fall in consumer confidence in the economy.

 

The gold price has experienced a precipitous decline after demonstrating a textbook-style test and the collapse of a consolidation pattern. On an hourly scale, the consolidation formed within the region of $1,697.12-1,709.62. At $1,698.70, the yellow metal is trading below the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which increases the downside filters.

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