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July 1st - The World Gold Council released its "2026 Global Gold Market Mid-Year Outlook" today. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the gold valuation framework indicates that gold will continue to serve as a barometer of the global macroeconomy, with three main possible scenarios. At current price levels, gold prices are largely in line with market consensus: the market expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at least once in 2026, most likely in October; the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank will all tighten policy; and US inflation is expected to peak in the second quarter, approaching 3.9%. If these conditions remain largely unchanged, gold prices may trade around $4,100/ounce this year, with a fluctuation range of approximately ±5%. If geopolitical or economic conditions deteriorate, or interest rate expectations shift, gold is expected to resume its upward trend; however, only sufficiently strong signals of a global economic slowdown could drive gold prices to break upwards. On the downside, a stronger dollar, larger-than-expected interest rate hikes, and a recovery in market risk appetite are the main obstacles to gold prices; if gold prices remain below $4,000/ounce, it could trigger further selling. However, based on historical performance, if gold prices fall by more than 10% from current levels, it could trigger "buy the dip" demand from long-term investors in multiple regions.White House National Economic Council Director Hassett: Raising interest rates would be a mistake.UK Maritime Trade Organization: A tanker reported that a small vessel approached it from its port aft side at a distance of 2 nautical miles. The crew is safe and the vessel is continuing its voyage.Ukrainian President Zelensky: I hope that during Irelands EU presidency, I can open up all areas of discussion in the negotiations for Ukraines accession to the EU.British Prime Minister Starmer: The £1 billion annual funding gap in defense spending has been covered by budget "spare space".

Gold price prediction: XAU/USD slips to $1,690 on Fed forecasts; US retail sales expected

Daniel Rogers

Sep 15, 2022 11:37

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Gold price (XAU/USD) has adopted a downward trend after falling below Wednesday's minimum of $1,693.67. The precious metal is falling nearing $1,690.00 as bears take control of rising probabilities for a massive Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike in the near future.

 

Earlier symptoms of weariness have dissipated as a result of Tuesday's higher-than-anticipated US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Despite declining gasoline costs, the headline US CPI was announced at 8.3%, which was higher than the 8.2% prediction. The investment community believed that inflation had begun to respond to the Federal Reserve's (Fed) raising interest rates and that a succession of declining price pressures would soon enable the Fed to adopt a 'neutral' stance.

 

However, a US inflation report that exceeded forecasts demonstrates that the road to a neutral monetary policy is far from complete. Moreover, predictions of a one percent rate increase are currently ascendant.

 

In today's session, the US Retail Sales report will be of paramount importance. The economic data estimates do not indicate any improvement in retail demand. This could be the outcome of a fall in consumer confidence in the economy.

 

The gold price has experienced a precipitous decline after demonstrating a textbook-style test and the collapse of a consolidation pattern. On an hourly scale, the consolidation formed within the region of $1,697.12-1,709.62. At $1,698.70, the yellow metal is trading below the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which increases the downside filters.

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