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On November 22nd, Nick Timiraos, a well-known voice within the Federal Reserve, wrote that Trump stated this week that he expects interest rates to fall significantly after appointing a new Fed chairman next May. However, internal opposition to a December rate cut is growing, meaning his wish may be difficult to fulfill. Whether Powell chooses to hold rates steady or cut rates in December, he faces the most severe internal resistance in his nearly eight-year term. This division could extend into next year, meaning that even a change of chairman does not guarantee more rate cuts. Some worry that if Trump fails to achieve his goal, he may resort to more aggressive measures to weaken the central banks independence in exchange for rate cuts. For over 30 years, Fed chairs have sought the broadest possible consensus on interest rate decisions, with no decision passed by a narrow majority. But the December meeting is highly likely to see three or more dissenting votes. Evercore ISI economist Krishna Guha stated, "We are witnessing a breakdown in the decision-making process, and next year we may see a serious split within the committee. (December) feels like a preview of 2026." This suggests an unprecedented prospect: monetary policy outcomes may be decided by a very rare, narrow majority (rather than the long-standing tradition of pursuing broad consensus), and the new chairman appointed by Trump may not be able to control the situation every time.US Vice President Vance: Any peace plan between Russia and Ukraine should minimize the possibility of renewed war. There is a misconception that victory will be easily achieved simply by providing more funds, more weapons, or imposing more sanctions.US Vice President Vance: Any peace plan between Russia and Ukraine should stop the killings while preserving Ukraines sovereignty. Any plan should be mutually acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine.November 22 – According to the China State Railway Group, from January to October this year, the national railway system transported a total of 3.378 billion tons of freight, a year-on-year increase of 3%, setting a new record for the same period. In the first ten months, freight products continued to be optimized. The "single bill of lading" logistics product for rail-sea intermodal transport booked 30,000 TEUs, and the national railway system transported a total of 14.258 million TEUs of rail-sea intermodal container cargo, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%. Cross-border freight transport remained stable and smooth. From January to October, the China-Europe and China-Central Asia freight trains operated a total of 28,000 trains, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%; the China-Laos Railway cross-border freight trains transported a total of 4.52 million tons of cargo, a year-on-year increase of 14%; and the Western Land-Sea New Corridor freight trains transported a total of 1.2 million TEUs of containers, a year-on-year increase of 64%, promoting international trade and economic exchanges.On November 22, U.S. District Judge William ORick issued a temporary injunction on November 21, local time, blocking the Trump administration from imposing new conditions and cutting funding to the Department of Homeland Security in more than 20 cities and counties in California, Washington, and Arizona. The judge ruled that the Trump administrations attempts to force local governments to cooperate with immigration enforcement, terminate diversity programs, and restrict benefits for undocumented immigrants through executive orders may violate federal law. Plaintiffs, including Santa Clara County, California, stated that the funds involved exceed $350 million and are intended for disaster preparedness, emergency services, and security for major events. Following the injunction, the federal government is temporarily prohibited from freezing or recovering the funds under the new conditions.

Forecast for Gold Price: XAU/USD licks US inflation-related wounds near $1,700

Alina Haynes

Sep 14, 2022 11:39

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Gold price (XAU/USD) is under pressure near $1,700 as bears take a pause following the largest daily decline in two weeks due to US inflation. However, it should be noted that a lack of important data/events appeared to limit bullion's quick movements throughout Wednesday's Asian session.

 

Tuesday's US inflation statistics rekindled fears about the Federal Reserve's fast rate hike and exacerbated recession concerns. Also acting as factors for a decline in the XAU/USD are geopolitical concerns over China and Russia.

 

In August, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) surpassed market expectations by increasing 8.3% year-over-year (YOY), compared to 8.8% previously. However, the monthly data increased to 0.1%, exceeding the -0.1% anticipated and 0.0% previous estimates. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, likewise exceeded the 6.1% consensus and 5.9% prior to printing at 6.3% for the month in question.

 

Following the release of US inflation statistics, wagers on the Fed's next move became further aggressive, with a 75 basis point (bps) raise next week appearing nearly probable. There is a 25% possibility that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce a complete 1% hike in the benchmark Fed rate at its meeting on September 21.

 

It should be mentioned that the yield inversion expanded after US inflation data and fueled recession concerns, which in turn weighed on the XAU/USD values due to the pair's reputation as a risk-barometer. However, following the release of the data, rates on 10-year US Treasury notes rose to 3.412% and those on 2-year bonds rose to 3.76%, from roughly 3.411% and 3.745%, respectively. In addition, the US stock market experienced its largest daily decline in over two years following the announcement of the US CPI, which thrilled metal bearish.

 

In addition to the rush toward deeper ties with China, US Vice President Joe Biden's efforts to raise China's troubles contribute to Sino-American tensions. In addition, worries that Russia will retaliate harshly after retreating from certain regions of Ukraine weighed on market mood and the price of gold.

 

A light schedule ahead of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) may keep XAU/USD on the precarious floor, but bears are likely to maintain control until Thursday's US Retail Sales for the month of August and Friday's preliminary reading of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for September.

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