EUR/USD
1.15425
-0.363%
Gold
3446.21
1.757%
Oil
71.988
6.575%
USD/JPY
144.419
0.661%
GBP/USD
1.35515
-0.452%
GBP/JPY
195.715
0.237%
Real-time News
Futures June 16 news, the escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict has caused market concerns about crude oil supply, but the risk of supply disruption is relatively controllable. Although Israel began to selectively attack Iranian energy facilities on June 15, the damage caused was limited and Irans crude oil supply has not been affected for the time being. In addition, OPEC+ has begun to increase production in April. OPEC+ has about 5 million barrels per day of idle production capacity, and the rate of increase may further accelerate. The core risk of the oil market next is whether Iran will block the Strait of Hormuz. Judging from the current situation, the conflict between the two sides has begun to ease last weekend, and the international community called on both sides to start negotiations. In the short term, the two sides are likely to control the scale of the conflict, and oil prices may fluctuate in the range of 70 to 80 US dollars per barrel. As the conflict eases, the market returns to fundamental pricing, oil prices will squeeze out the geopolitical risk premium, and the price center will gradually move down to around 60 US dollars per barrel. Judging from Irans actions on the Strait of Hormuz, Iran is more likely to put pressure on the United States and Israel through the Strait, but the probability of completely blocking the Strait is small. Therefore, Iran is more likely to selectively harass specific ships or deter through military activities.Futures News on June 16: This round of escalation of the Middle East conflict is different from the past. In October 2024, Israel attacked Iran, but the target did not involve nuclear facilities and energy facilities. The attack on Irans uranium enrichment facilities and refineries this time has greatly reduced the probability of a short-term cooling of the situation in the Middle East. In the previous five rounds of negotiations between the United States and Iran, the fundamental differences between the two sides were not resolved. The cancellation of the US-Iran peace talks last weekend also showed that the short-term negotiations have reached a deadlock, and the possibility of a phased escalation of conflicts and new US sanctions against Iran is increasing. The escalation of the Middle East conflict has a greater short-term impact on crude oil supply, and the long-term impact is relatively controllable. First, Irans export rhythm has been disrupted before, and the pace of most buyers receiving Iranian crude oil has slowed down significantly. Unless Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, the reduction in Iranian supply in the later period can be compensated by OPEC+ production increases within three months. Second, the pace of OPEC+ production increases is expected to accelerate in the later period, refineries willingness to stock up will decline, and the geopolitical risk premium will gradually decline.On June 16, ANZ Bank pointed out in a report to clients that the Federal Reserve will most likely keep the federal funds target rate unchanged at this weeks meeting. Although the latest macroeconomic data show that the job market has cooled, it remains relatively resilient. The bank believes that the stability of the job market gives the Fed time to pay attention to the upcoming inflation report at a time of rising tariffs and rising inflation uncertainty. ANZ Bank expects that Fed Chairman Powell will continue to emphasize patience, pointing out that monetary policy is in good shape and can respond appropriately to developments.On June 16, CICC pointed out that in the first half of 2025, although policy uncertainty has increased significantly, the global economy as a whole is running smoothly, and other major central banks except the Federal Reserve continue to cut interest rates. In the second half of the year, the economic momentum of the United States and non-US regions will converge, mainly driven by the slowdown in the US economy. Non-US regions have certain advantages due to relatively loose monetary policies and room for repair of output gaps, but the extent of repair in the second half of the year is constrained by high policy uncertainty and the front-end of exports and growth in the first half of the year. Against this background, we are more optimistic about opportunities in non-US regions in the second half of the year, remain relatively optimistic about the European market, and increase the weight of emerging markets. However, we believe that the differentiation of regional performance may be smaller than in the first half of the year, and we recommend a balanced allocation.Market News: The Swiss Embassy, which represents US interests in Tehran, has been closed until further notice.
