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1. WTI crude oil futures trading volume was 1,033,142 lots, a decrease of 79,938 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 2,091,639 lots, an increase of 11,778 lots from the previous trading day. 2. Brent crude oil futures trading volume was 250,347 lots, a decrease of 2,621 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 239,842 lots, a decrease of 23,281 lots from the previous trading day. 3. Natural gas futures trading volume was 742,856 lots, a decrease of 1,166,358 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 1,655,969 lots, a decrease of 54,203 lots from the previous trading day.February 4th - Amundi Wealth Management stated that the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged on Thursday, but lower-than-expected inflation could lead to a rate cut later this year. The company noted, "The risk of lower-than-expected inflation at the start of the year reinforces our view that the ECB may cut rates again to 1.75% later this year." According to data from the London Stock Exchange Group, the money market has not yet priced in any ECB rate cut expectations this year. Currently, the ECBs deposit facility rate is 2.00%.On February 4th, Norwegian energy giant Aquino reported a 32% year-on-year decline in fourth-quarter profits due to falling oil prices. As the first major European energy company to release its quarterly earnings report, Aquinos results may set the tone for the upcoming earnings season. Previously, crude oil prices declined amid ample supply. The companys adjusted operating profit after tax shrank to $1.55 billion from $2.29 billion in the same period last year, below the average analyst expectation of $1.59 billion. The company announced a share buyback program of up to $1.5 billion in 2026. Last year, crude oil prices experienced their largest annual drop since 2020, and a large-scale oversupply is expected to continue to weigh on prices in 2026. European natural gas prices also fell sharply last year due to a surge in seaborne supply. Within Aquino, increased production mitigated the impact of falling prices, with both its Norwegian and overseas oil fields increasing output.Japans Ministry of Finance: An agreement has been reached in principle with the Philippines on a new tax treaty.The yield on 40-year Japanese government bonds rose 1.5 basis points to 3.940%.

Forecast for the price of gold: XAU/USD tussles with $1,730 resistance before US inflation

Daniel Rogers

Sep 13, 2022 10:57

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As traders anticipate the crucial US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday, the price of gold (XAU/USD) grinds higher above a fortnight peak after a two-day advance to $1,725 per ounce. The market's optimism and anticipated preparations for today's inflation data may be responsible for the metal's most recent increases.

 

The market's cautious optimism appears to have been supported by rumors that Ukraine is succeeding in driving the Russian troops away from some of its conflict zones, even though this also increased concerns about Russia's strong response. The expectation of additional stimulus from powerful economies like China, the US, the UK, and Europe might be on the same lines. It's important to keep in mind that a Chinese holiday and a light schedule may have contributed to the XAU/recovery USD's because Beijing's lack of political or economic problems may have supported metal prices. In addition, recent news from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) that US gas prices have fallen for a 13th week in a row helped to relieve market pressure and encouraged a risk-taking attitude that was favorable to the gold price.

 

However, the recent easing of the headline economics and the inflation expectations seems to have pushed back the gold bears despite a light schedule, even though the policymakers from the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) remain hawkish elsewhere.

 

In the midst of these maneuvers, Wall Street posted another day of profits despite rising US Treasury yields, which at the time were up five basis points (bps) to 3.36%. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which fell for a second straight day to the lowest levels in a fortnight, eventually dipped to approximately 108.30, was affected by the same factors.

 

Moving on, the US CPI for August is critical in light of the most recent easing of pricing pressure. According to the projections, the headline figure will decline to -0.1% MoM from 0.0% the previous month, while the CPI excluding food and energy is expected to hold steady at 0.3% MoM. The US dollar may continue to decline if the inflation numbers are weaker, which might support the XAU/continued USD's gain.

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