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On January 31st, Federal Reserve Chairman Mohamed Mussala stated on Friday that he was reluctant to support further interest rate cuts given that inflation had consistently remained above the Feds 2% target. Mussala said he agreed with the Feds decision this week to keep interest rates unchanged, arguing that the Feds target rate of 3.5% to 3.75% was no longer high enough to significantly dampen the economy. He believes that persistent price increases should prevent the Fed from lowering rates to support the economy. Mussala stated, "Given that inflation is above target and the risks to the economic outlook are broadly balanced, I dont think its appropriate to lower interest rates into an accommodative range at this time." Mussala also pointed out that attempting to alleviate labor market pressures by lowering short-term interest rates controlled by the Fed could be counterproductive. He said such a move could trigger concerns about future inflation and push up long-term interest rates, which are a key factor determining mortgage costs and business borrowing costs.Federal Reserves Mossallem: Economic tailwinds are expected to boost economic growth in 2026.Federal Reserves Mossala: The risk of a sharp decline in the job market has diminished.Federal Reserves Mossalim: Inflation is expected to fall to around 2%, but he believes it may remain above 2% for an extended period. Further rate cuts could exacerbate inflation expectations.Federal Reserve Chairman Mossallem: The economy is expected to continue to grow at an above-trend pace, driven by credit conditions and fiscal policy.

Forecast for the price of gold: XAU/USD tussles with $1,730 resistance before US inflation

Daniel Rogers

Sep 13, 2022 10:57

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As traders anticipate the crucial US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday, the price of gold (XAU/USD) grinds higher above a fortnight peak after a two-day advance to $1,725 per ounce. The market's optimism and anticipated preparations for today's inflation data may be responsible for the metal's most recent increases.

 

The market's cautious optimism appears to have been supported by rumors that Ukraine is succeeding in driving the Russian troops away from some of its conflict zones, even though this also increased concerns about Russia's strong response. The expectation of additional stimulus from powerful economies like China, the US, the UK, and Europe might be on the same lines. It's important to keep in mind that a Chinese holiday and a light schedule may have contributed to the XAU/recovery USD's because Beijing's lack of political or economic problems may have supported metal prices. In addition, recent news from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) that US gas prices have fallen for a 13th week in a row helped to relieve market pressure and encouraged a risk-taking attitude that was favorable to the gold price.

 

However, the recent easing of the headline economics and the inflation expectations seems to have pushed back the gold bears despite a light schedule, even though the policymakers from the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) remain hawkish elsewhere.

 

In the midst of these maneuvers, Wall Street posted another day of profits despite rising US Treasury yields, which at the time were up five basis points (bps) to 3.36%. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which fell for a second straight day to the lowest levels in a fortnight, eventually dipped to approximately 108.30, was affected by the same factors.

 

Moving on, the US CPI for August is critical in light of the most recent easing of pricing pressure. According to the projections, the headline figure will decline to -0.1% MoM from 0.0% the previous month, while the CPI excluding food and energy is expected to hold steady at 0.3% MoM. The US dollar may continue to decline if the inflation numbers are weaker, which might support the XAU/continued USD's gain.

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