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On April 27th, European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers made it clear that they value maintaining flexibility in policy options ahead of this weeks policy decision. The market has reacted accordingly, lowering its rate hike expectations to approximately 20%. However, this probability is expected to rise to around 63% by the June meeting. Looking at the full year, traders are currently pricing in a rate hike of approximately 58 basis points, roughly equivalent to two subsequent 25 basis point hikes, which is Goldman Sachs current baseline scenario. Goldman Sachs believes that given the unresolved situation in the Middle East, the ECB is unlikely to take action this week, as policymakers want to preserve policy space while assessing the second-round effects of inflation. The press conference is expected to maintain the tone of recent communications, with ECB President Lagarde potentially stating that the Governing Council will monitor the second-round effects and is prepared to act to ensure inflation returns to 2% in the medium term. Regarding the future policy path, Goldman Sachs expects the ECB to implement two 25 basis point rate hikes in the coming months, the first in June, followed by a move to raise the deposit rate to 2.50% in September.On April 27th, at the 2026 Beijing International Automotive Exhibition, Unisoc and ADAYO jointly released a new generation AI cockpit platform equipped with the A8880 chip, which achieves a significant leap in CPU, GPU computing power and graphics rendering capabilities.On April 27th, Commerzbank analyst Thu Lan Nguyen stated in a report that market expectations for interest rate hikes by the Bank of England and the European Central Bank appear excessive ahead of meetings later this week, thus putting the pound and euro at risk. LSEG data shows that money market pricing indicates the Bank of England and the European Central Bank will keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday but will raise them twice before the end of the year. "We are particularly skeptical of market expectations regarding the ECB and the Bank of England," Nguyen said. She stated that there is considerable room for these expectations to be reassessed, and therefore, exchange rates could experience significant volatility.On April 27th, a Counterpoint Research report showed that global smartphone SoC shipments declined by 8% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026. The ongoing memory shortage is not only impacting new product development for smartphone original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and SoC suppliers, but also prompting them to optimize their product portfolios. The high-end smartphone market performed relatively steadily, with most of the cost increases already passed on to end consumers. Meanwhile, the entry-level market is gradually adopting lower-cost, older chipsets to maintain price competitiveness. Qualcomm and MediaTek both experienced double-digit declines in shipments. In contrast, Apple, Samsung, Google, and Unisoc achieved positive growth. Apple, Samsung, and Google benefited from their supply chain integration capabilities, mitigating the impact of the current memory shortage to some extent.On April 27, the draft revision of the Law on State-Owned Assets of Enterprises was submitted to the 22nd session of the Standing Committee of the 14th National Peoples Congress for its first review. The revision adheres to the leadership of the Party, a problem-oriented approach, the principle of balancing development and security, and the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability. The draft revises 71 articles and adds 32 new articles, comprising nine chapters and 109 articles, comprehensively revising the existing law. Major revisions include improving the modern enterprise system with Chinese characteristics, improving the management and supervision system for state-owned assets of enterprises, clarifying the principle of classified management, and improving the management system for state-owned capital gains. The Law on State-Owned Assets of Enterprises stipulates the basic system for the management and supervision of state-owned assets of enterprises in my country. Since its implementation on May 1, 2009, it has provided strong legal protection for the reform and development of state-owned assets and enterprises. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, my countrys development environment faces profound and complex changes. Revising and improving the Law on State-Owned Assets of Enterprises, using legislation to guide and guarantee the reform and development of state-owned assets and enterprises, and strengthening the rule of law in the management and supervision of state-owned assets, is of great significance for ensuring the sustained and healthy development of the state-owned economy.

Forecast for the price of gold: XAU/USD tussles with $1,730 resistance before US inflation

Daniel Rogers

Sep 13, 2022 10:57

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As traders anticipate the crucial US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday, the price of gold (XAU/USD) grinds higher above a fortnight peak after a two-day advance to $1,725 per ounce. The market's optimism and anticipated preparations for today's inflation data may be responsible for the metal's most recent increases.

 

The market's cautious optimism appears to have been supported by rumors that Ukraine is succeeding in driving the Russian troops away from some of its conflict zones, even though this also increased concerns about Russia's strong response. The expectation of additional stimulus from powerful economies like China, the US, the UK, and Europe might be on the same lines. It's important to keep in mind that a Chinese holiday and a light schedule may have contributed to the XAU/recovery USD's because Beijing's lack of political or economic problems may have supported metal prices. In addition, recent news from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) that US gas prices have fallen for a 13th week in a row helped to relieve market pressure and encouraged a risk-taking attitude that was favorable to the gold price.

 

However, the recent easing of the headline economics and the inflation expectations seems to have pushed back the gold bears despite a light schedule, even though the policymakers from the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) remain hawkish elsewhere.

 

In the midst of these maneuvers, Wall Street posted another day of profits despite rising US Treasury yields, which at the time were up five basis points (bps) to 3.36%. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which fell for a second straight day to the lowest levels in a fortnight, eventually dipped to approximately 108.30, was affected by the same factors.

 

Moving on, the US CPI for August is critical in light of the most recent easing of pricing pressure. According to the projections, the headline figure will decline to -0.1% MoM from 0.0% the previous month, while the CPI excluding food and energy is expected to hold steady at 0.3% MoM. The US dollar may continue to decline if the inflation numbers are weaker, which might support the XAU/continued USD's gain.

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