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March 24 – The head of Irans National Emergency Management Organization stated on the 24th that attacks launched by the United States and Israel since the outbreak of this round of conflict have resulted in the deaths of 208 minors under the age of 18 in Iran. Among them, 168 students were killed in an attack on a girls school in Minab, southern Iran. Furthermore, 13 of the dead were under the age of 5, the youngest being only 3 days old.On March 24th, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Aleksandar Vujicic (who will become ECB Vice President in June) stated that the ECB must maintain "a high degree of flexibility and vigilance" to control prices, as the risk of stagflation stemming from the Iran war is looming. Vujic indicated that officials will likely soon know whether the impact of the conflict will necessitate an interest rate hike. However, he also warned that recent developments suggest a growing danger of persistently rising consumer prices coupled with weak economic expansion. "We are not currently seeing stagflation, but the risks are moving in that direction. How far we go in this trend is difficult to predict. There will be a lot of new data and information released before the April meeting; in the current situation, everything is being updated in real time."Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda: We pledge to provide policy guidance aimed at achieving stable inflation and wage growth.Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda: Although food prices may temporarily decline, the impact of freezing food sales tax in the short term on inflation expectations may be limited.ECB Governing Council member Vujicic: The ECB must be wary of the risk of stagflation.

Forecast for the price of gold: XAU/USD tussles with $1,730 resistance before US inflation

Daniel Rogers

Sep 13, 2022 10:57

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As traders anticipate the crucial US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday, the price of gold (XAU/USD) grinds higher above a fortnight peak after a two-day advance to $1,725 per ounce. The market's optimism and anticipated preparations for today's inflation data may be responsible for the metal's most recent increases.

 

The market's cautious optimism appears to have been supported by rumors that Ukraine is succeeding in driving the Russian troops away from some of its conflict zones, even though this also increased concerns about Russia's strong response. The expectation of additional stimulus from powerful economies like China, the US, the UK, and Europe might be on the same lines. It's important to keep in mind that a Chinese holiday and a light schedule may have contributed to the XAU/recovery USD's because Beijing's lack of political or economic problems may have supported metal prices. In addition, recent news from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) that US gas prices have fallen for a 13th week in a row helped to relieve market pressure and encouraged a risk-taking attitude that was favorable to the gold price.

 

However, the recent easing of the headline economics and the inflation expectations seems to have pushed back the gold bears despite a light schedule, even though the policymakers from the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) remain hawkish elsewhere.

 

In the midst of these maneuvers, Wall Street posted another day of profits despite rising US Treasury yields, which at the time were up five basis points (bps) to 3.36%. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which fell for a second straight day to the lowest levels in a fortnight, eventually dipped to approximately 108.30, was affected by the same factors.

 

Moving on, the US CPI for August is critical in light of the most recent easing of pricing pressure. According to the projections, the headline figure will decline to -0.1% MoM from 0.0% the previous month, while the CPI excluding food and energy is expected to hold steady at 0.3% MoM. The US dollar may continue to decline if the inflation numbers are weaker, which might support the XAU/continued USD's gain.

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