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US-Iran-US Conflict: ① Iran 1. Iranian Ambassador to Russia: The US is not taking the US-Iran negotiations seriously. 2. US media: Mojtaba issues orders via letters; decision-making power may have been delegated to the Revolutionary Guard. 3. Despite the US blockade, Iran continues to load oil onto tankers. 4. Iranian Vice President says Iran will retaliate severely against attacks on Iranian energy facilities. 5. Iranian parliamentary officials: Foreign Ministers visit to Pakistan will not involve nuclear talks. 6. Iranian Ministry of Defense: Iran still controls the Strait of Hormuz. 7. Pakistani sources: The plane carrying Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi arrived at the Nur-Khan Air Base near Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan. 8. Iranian media: Araqchi has no scheduled meetings with the US, but will use Pakistan as an intermediary to convey messages to the US. ② US 1. Given the risk of the current US-Iran ceasefire breaking down, the US military is studying new operational plans, including striking Iranian military forces in the Strait of Hormuz area. 2. US Central Command: The blockade against ships entering and leaving Iranian ports continues. To date, the US military has forced 34 ships to change course. 3. US Defense Secretary: Another aircraft carrier joins the blockade of Iran. 4. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Kane: Iran attacked five merchant ships and seized two of them. 5. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Kane: The US will continue to intercept Iranian ships in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. 6. The White House extends shipping waivers to August to alleviate oil shortages. 7. White House: Witkov and Kushner will travel to Pakistan on Saturday morning; Vance will remain in the country on standby. 8. Two sources say the US envoys meeting with Araghchi may take place on Monday, before which Kushner and Witkov will hold separate bilateral talks with Pakistani mediators. ③ Israel 1. Reportedly, Israel conducted airstrikes in Deir Amez, southern Lebanon. 2. Israeli Defense Minister says: Waiting for the US to agree to "completely eliminate the Iranian regime." 3. Israeli Defense Minister reportedly has identified targets for strikes against Iran should the conflict resume. 4. Israel launched airstrikes on several locations in southern Lebanon, killing two people. ⑤ Strait of Hormuz 1. Iran granted transit fee exemptions to Russia and other "friendly" countries in the Strait of Hormuz. 2. US media: Sources say Iran laid more mines in the Strait of Hormuz this week. 3. Iran says hundreds of ships are waiting for passage permits in the Strait of Hormuz. 4. Malaysia is discussing with Iran allowing two oil tankers to pass through Iranian waters. 5. US Defense Secretary acknowledges significant restrictions on shipping in the Strait and warns Iran that laying mines would violate the ceasefire agreement. ⑥ Ceasefire Negotiations 1. Iranian parliamentary official Ayman Shamsayei: Ghalibaf has not resigned and is still diligently fulfilling his duties. Related rumors are being spread for the purpose of disrupting public opinion. 2. According to Irans Tasnim News Agency: Iran and the United States will not hold talks during Foreign Minister Araghchis visit. 3. US media: There are no indications that US Vice President Vance is about to depart for Pakistan. 4. According to Middle Eastern media Al Asharq: A US delegation will arrive in Islamabad within 36 hours to prepare for the second round of talks. 5. The Iranian Foreign Minister will visit Pakistan and two other countries; there are no indications that a second round of US-Iran talks will be held. 6. Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi: The purpose of this trip is to coordinate with partners. 7. The US Defense Secretary said Iran still has a chance to reach an agreement, but "it is impossible to obtain nuclear weapons." 8. According to Irans Tasnim News Agency: Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi will travel abroad as the head of a diplomatic delegation. 9. According to CNN: US special envoys Witkov and Kushner will participate in talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi. 10. Pakistan: The trilateral talks will be assessed after Pakistan meets with Araqchi. ④ Other situations: 1. Kuwait International Airport airspace has reopened. 2. Saudi Arabias alternative oil export routes have not yet been able to maintain full capacity. 3. Spokesperson for the British Prime Minister: British Prime Minister Starmer will not be pressured on the issue of war with Iran. 4. The first shipments from the US following the conflict with Iran may arrive in Japan on Sunday. 5. Israeli airstrikes in several parts of the Gaza Strip have killed 12 people.On April 25, Ibrahim Aziz, chairman of the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee of the Iranian Islamic Parliament, posted on social media early that morning that Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchis visit to Pakistan was solely for discussing bilateral relations and he was not authorized to handle any matters related to the nuclear negotiations. Aziz stated that the nuclear issue remains one of Irans red lines.Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman: There are no plans for a meeting between Iran and the United States at the moment, and Irans observations will be relayed to Pakistan.According to the Associated Press, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessenter ruled out the possibility of extending the oil waivers for Iran and Russia.Market news: A U.S. judge dismissed fraud allegations brought by Elon Musk against OpenAI and its founder Altman, and plans to continue the trial on other allegations against Musk.

Forecast for the price of gold: XAU/USD upward to $1,745 with positive RSI divergence and weaker USD

Daniel Rogers

Sep 09, 2022 17:13

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Around $1,720 is where the gold price (XAU/USD) is currently leading early on Friday morning in Europe. In doing so, the yellow metal applauds widespread US dollar weakening and cautious market confidence. Technical signs can work in the buyers' advantage.

 

By press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY) had pared its largest daily loss in a month and was still near the one-week low. In doing so, the greenback indicator fails to support the aggressive remarks made by Fed Chair Jerome Powell the day before while emphasizing the stronger sentiment in the market.

 

Market confidence is influenced by tougher remarks made late Thursday by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, which indicate that US-China trade relations are expected to improve. Recent stronger US statistics and optimism that global central bankers can combat inflation-driven blow with a comprehensive strategy and higher rates also appeared to have helped the market's sentiment. It should be noted that discussions about potential difficulties for Chinese technology companies and unfavorable inflation data for China recently seemed to test the XAU/USD bulls.

 

The US 10-year Treasury yields, which are indicative of the mood, are behind after a good day at around 3.32%, while the S&P 500 Futures tracks Wall Street's advances at about 4,020. The stocks in the Asia-Pacific region are also still firmer, it should be noted, as cautious optimism grows during a sluggish session.

 

The XAU/USD prices are probably going to finish the week on a high note given the risk-on mindset and depressed US dollar. The final round of Fedspeak before the blackout period, which begins this weekend, should nevertheless be paid heed to for new inspiration. Conversations on US inflation ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) statistics the following week will be crucial.