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May 6th - Bond traders are increasing their bets that the Federal Reserves next policy move will likely be a rate hike rather than a rate cut. Swap contracts linked to central bank interest rate decisions currently show that the market expects a greater than 50% probability of a Fed rate hike before April next year, prior to any rate cut. More and more traders are also increasing their positions to hedge against the risk of a rising probability of a rate hike before the end of the year. This shift in market conditions comes as policymakers appear increasingly divided on the interest rate outlook. Lawrence Gillum, chief fixed income strategist at LPL Financial, believes that the possibility of a rate cut this year still exists, but this probability will gradually decrease as the conflict with Iran continues. He stated, "Theres no doubt that Warshs path forward will be challenging."Lucid Group (LCID.O) executives: Due to geopolitical conflicts, there were some delays in the delivery of equipment to the Saudi factory, but the team has successfully mitigated the situation.According to the UAEs national news agency, the UAE president received phone calls from several leaders, including Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, who condemned Irans attack on the UAE and expressed their support for the measures the UAE has taken to maintain security.AMD (AMD.O) shares rose more than 11% in after-hours trading.ChatGPT has announced its availability as a plugin for Excel and Google Sheets. ChatGPT states that it helps analyze messy data, write formulas, update spreadsheets, and explain the steps involved—all without leaving the spreadsheet interface. The service will be powered by GPT-5.5.

WTI struggles at $87 as recession worries probe OPEC's forecast and supply deficit fears intensify

Daniel Rogers

Sep 14, 2022 11:42

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After reverting from the weekly high, WTI crude oil traders seek clear direction around $87.50 during Wednesday's Asian session. However, the present hesitation in the price of black gold may be attributable to the mixed concerns regarding the demand-supply matrix.

 

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) indicated in a monthly report that oil consumption will climb by 3,1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2022 and by 2,7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023, which is unchanged from last month. Despite obstacles such as rising prices, the news also highlighted indications that major economies were performing better than projected.

 

The news that the United States intends to replenish its emergency oil reserves, as well as the German and European move to control Russian oil and gas prices, could also be favorable for energy prices. In addition, rumors that the Western oil deal with Iran is a long way off are bolstering fears of a supply bottleneck and should have helped energy bulls.

 

Tuesday's US inflation statistics revived concerns about the Federal Reserve's fast rate hike and exacerbated recession concerns. Also acting as downward drivers for WTI crude oil are expectations of economic slowdown due to China and Russia-related concerns.

 

In spite of this, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August increased by 8.3% year-over-year, surpassing market expectations by 0.1%. However, the monthly data increased to 0.1%, exceeding the -0.1% projected and the 0.0% shown in previous assessments. The core CPI, or CPI excluding food and energy, likewise exceeded the 6.1% consensus and 5.9% prior to printing at 6.3% for the month in question.

 

It should be mentioned that the weekly prints of the American Petroleum Institute's (API) industry inventory report also contributed to the commodity's downfall. The API Weekly Crude Oil Stock climbed to 6,035 million during the week ending September 9, up from 3,645,000 the previous week.

 

In the future, the price of black gold may stay under pressure due to a stronger US dollar and economic troubles. Before today's official weekly inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, however, the supply crisis concerns could test the bears (EIA). Thursday's US Retail Sales for the month of August and Friday's preliminary reading of the September Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will also warrant close attention.

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