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On February 8, the median U.S. 1-year inflation forecast rose to its highest level since November 2023. Capital Economics assistant economist Ruben Gargallo Abergus wrote: "This at least adds another reason for the Fed to remain cautious and suspend the easing cycle for a while." Higher inflation expectations are not the only inflation headwinds the Fed is currently facing. Wage growth continued to exceed expectations in January, which could push up inflation in the service sector. Economists expect Fed officials to keep interest rates unchanged at the March 18-19 policy meeting, and may even extend the suspension of rate cuts at the June meeting.The Israeli military says it has struck a Hamas weapons depot in Syria.According to Iranian state media reports, Irans Supreme Leader Khamenei met with visiting senior Hamas leaders in Tehran.On February 8, four large model application products under Baidu Smart Cloud, namely Keyue, Xiling, Yijian and Zhenzhi, were officially launched with access to the new version of the DeepSeek model.On February 8, according to Nikkei Chinese, Japans soaring food prices are dragging down personal consumption. The results of the household survey of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications of Japan showed that consumer spending in 2024 actually decreased by 1.1% year-on-year. The "Engel coefficient", which indicates the proportion of food in consumer spending, is 28.3%, a 43-year high. Monthly spending in December 2024 actually increased by 2.7%, and consumption showed a recovery trend. From the perspective of the composition of consumer spending in 2024, the negative factors that actually contributed the most to consumer spending are transportation and communications, which actually decreased by 4.1% year-on-year. Due to the exposure of certification violations by some Japanese automakers, automobile production was suspended for a time, affecting consumption.

WTI struggles at $87 as recession worries probe OPEC's forecast and supply deficit fears intensify

Daniel Rogers

Sep 14, 2022 11:42

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After reverting from the weekly high, WTI crude oil traders seek clear direction around $87.50 during Wednesday's Asian session. However, the present hesitation in the price of black gold may be attributable to the mixed concerns regarding the demand-supply matrix.

 

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) indicated in a monthly report that oil consumption will climb by 3,1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2022 and by 2,7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023, which is unchanged from last month. Despite obstacles such as rising prices, the news also highlighted indications that major economies were performing better than projected.

 

The news that the United States intends to replenish its emergency oil reserves, as well as the German and European move to control Russian oil and gas prices, could also be favorable for energy prices. In addition, rumors that the Western oil deal with Iran is a long way off are bolstering fears of a supply bottleneck and should have helped energy bulls.

 

Tuesday's US inflation statistics revived concerns about the Federal Reserve's fast rate hike and exacerbated recession concerns. Also acting as downward drivers for WTI crude oil are expectations of economic slowdown due to China and Russia-related concerns.

 

In spite of this, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August increased by 8.3% year-over-year, surpassing market expectations by 0.1%. However, the monthly data increased to 0.1%, exceeding the -0.1% projected and the 0.0% shown in previous assessments. The core CPI, or CPI excluding food and energy, likewise exceeded the 6.1% consensus and 5.9% prior to printing at 6.3% for the month in question.

 

It should be mentioned that the weekly prints of the American Petroleum Institute's (API) industry inventory report also contributed to the commodity's downfall. The API Weekly Crude Oil Stock climbed to 6,035 million during the week ending September 9, up from 3,645,000 the previous week.

 

In the future, the price of black gold may stay under pressure due to a stronger US dollar and economic troubles. Before today's official weekly inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, however, the supply crisis concerns could test the bears (EIA). Thursday's US Retail Sales for the month of August and Friday's preliminary reading of the September Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will also warrant close attention.

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