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Money markets expect a 40% chance of the European Central Bank cutting interest rates before December, compared to only a 30% chance before the release of US CPI data.The China Earthquake Networks Center officially reported that a magnitude 3.2 earthquake occurred at 22:24 on February 13 in Shaya County, Aksu Prefecture, Xinjiang (40.53 degrees north latitude, 83.42 degrees east longitude), with a focal depth of 16 kilometers.February 13th - Phil Orlando, Chief Equity Strategist at Federated Investors, stated that the better-than-expected US January inflation report, especially at the nominal level, is good news for the Fed and supports our long-term view that the Fed will be able to cut rates three times in about a year as leadership transitions from Powell to Warsh. Why did the market fall on Wednesday despite strong labor market data? Because the market perceived this as detrimental to the Feds path to lower rates—the January labor market data was far stronger than expected. With this mornings data showing better-than-expected inflation, we believe the downward trend in inflation will continue. Bonds and stocks at least knee-jerked higher, and the market expects this to provide a reasonable justification for the Fed to lower rates in the long term, which is good news.Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: "Europe will not send representatives to the negotiations between the US, Russia, and Ukraine in Geneva."February 13th - Regan Capital analyst Skyler Weinand stated that weak US inflation data in January will not increase the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in the coming months, due to stronger-than-expected labor market data released earlier this week – 130,000 new jobs were added in January, and the unemployment rate was 4.3%. The Fed "simply cannot cut rates right now, given that the economy has just created six-figure jobs." Weinand expects the Senate to confirm Warsh as Fed Chair, succeeding Powell, but doubts his ability to build consensus on rate cuts. "We may not see any changes to the Feds policy rate this year." The CME FedWatch Tool shows that investors are currently pricing in at least two rate cuts this year.

WTI struggles at $87 as recession worries probe OPEC's forecast and supply deficit fears intensify

Daniel Rogers

Sep 14, 2022 11:42

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After reverting from the weekly high, WTI crude oil traders seek clear direction around $87.50 during Wednesday's Asian session. However, the present hesitation in the price of black gold may be attributable to the mixed concerns regarding the demand-supply matrix.

 

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) indicated in a monthly report that oil consumption will climb by 3,1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2022 and by 2,7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023, which is unchanged from last month. Despite obstacles such as rising prices, the news also highlighted indications that major economies were performing better than projected.

 

The news that the United States intends to replenish its emergency oil reserves, as well as the German and European move to control Russian oil and gas prices, could also be favorable for energy prices. In addition, rumors that the Western oil deal with Iran is a long way off are bolstering fears of a supply bottleneck and should have helped energy bulls.

 

Tuesday's US inflation statistics revived concerns about the Federal Reserve's fast rate hike and exacerbated recession concerns. Also acting as downward drivers for WTI crude oil are expectations of economic slowdown due to China and Russia-related concerns.

 

In spite of this, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August increased by 8.3% year-over-year, surpassing market expectations by 0.1%. However, the monthly data increased to 0.1%, exceeding the -0.1% projected and the 0.0% shown in previous assessments. The core CPI, or CPI excluding food and energy, likewise exceeded the 6.1% consensus and 5.9% prior to printing at 6.3% for the month in question.

 

It should be mentioned that the weekly prints of the American Petroleum Institute's (API) industry inventory report also contributed to the commodity's downfall. The API Weekly Crude Oil Stock climbed to 6,035 million during the week ending September 9, up from 3,645,000 the previous week.

 

In the future, the price of black gold may stay under pressure due to a stronger US dollar and economic troubles. Before today's official weekly inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, however, the supply crisis concerns could test the bears (EIA). Thursday's US Retail Sales for the month of August and Friday's preliminary reading of the September Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will also warrant close attention.

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