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According to the Financial Times: Britain and the United States are about to reach a low-tariff trade agreement.On May 7, according to the results of the U.S. 10-year Treasury auction on Tuesday, the undergraduate loan interest rate in the United States for the 2025-26 academic year is expected to be 6.39%. The annual interest rate calculation formula is usually based on the yield of the May auction, plus 2.05 percentage points. The figure of 6.39% is slightly lower than last years 6.53%, but it is still close to the highest level since the Great Recession in 2008. Under federal law, the upper limit of the loan interest rate is 8.25%.Karen Manna of Federated Hermes said on May 7 that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell may not be able to satisfy investors thirst for clarity when he speaks to reporters after tomorrows interest rate decision. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, and Powell may face questions about the impact of tariffs on inflation and the economy. The final level of tariffs and their duration remain unknown, which limits Powells ability to provide more clear information. "Forecasting is always difficult, and it is almost impossible to make forecasts when the target is constantly changing." She expects this uncertainty to continue until the Feds June meeting unless there are substantial changes.Pakistans Defense Minister: Conflict between Pakistan and India is "imminent".On May 7, according to British officials and documents, Britain is pressuring the European Union to more clearly support Britains participation in a 150 billion euro defense fund, after the first draft of the proposed security agreement basically did not mention this request. British Prime Minister Starmers government hopes to have firmer words on defense industry cooperation and joint fight against illegal immigration. The two sides are striving to reach an agreement before the London summit scheduled for May 19. British officials said they will work with the European Union in the coming days to draft a final document to send a stronger message on the ambitions of defense industrial policy. Although the draft mentioned exploring the possibility of both sides participating in their respective defense plans, it did not mention Britains goal of obtaining a 150 billion euro fund, nor did it explain how to achieve this goal.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD nears $1,850 resistance on China, yields favor DXY decline

Daniel Rogers

Feb 16, 2023 14:42

 截屏2023-01-19 下午3.43.28.png

 

Gold price (XAU/USD) shows modest increases near $1,840 as traders lick their wounds during Thursday's early slow activity. In doing so, the precious metal recovers from its largest daily decline in two weeks by drawing cues from cautious market optimism and a weakening U.S. dollar.

 

However, news reports concerning China and the U.S. debt ceiling appear to have supported the recent improvement in the risk profile. Consequently, Chinese President Xi Jinping crossed wires while demonstrating his willingness to expand industrial and investment cooperation with Asia. According to Chinese official media, he was followed by optimistic remarks from Chinese Finance Minister Liu Kun, who stated that 2023 fiscal revenue will increase this year, albeit at a moderate rate. Moreover, the chatter surrounding the US debt-ceiling crisis, as warned by the US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) on Wednesday according to Reuters, appeared to have raised hopes for a speedier resolution of the major issue in the coming days and probed the upward movement of US Treasury bond yields.

 

It should be noted that the World Gold Council's (WGC) update indicating China's massive Gold imports in 2022, the largest since 2018, appeared to have stabilized the XAU/USD exchange rate, particularly following the previous day's decline.

 

The US data-driven hawkish Fed bias and a rise in US Treasury bond yields appear to present the greatest threat to Gold buyers.

 

In this context, S&P 500 Futures post modest gains around 4,165 while extending yesterday's gains, while US 10-year Treasury note rates retreat following Wednesday's surge to a 1.5-month high, falling two basis points to approximately 3.78% as of press time. In spite of this, the US Dollar Index (DXY) fell 0.20% to 103.65 at the latest, after reaching a 1.5-month high the day before.

 

For new impetus, gold traders should focus on secondary US statistics about the housing market, industrial activity, and producer prices.


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