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According to the Financial Times: Britain and the United States are about to reach a low-tariff trade agreement.On May 7, according to the results of the U.S. 10-year Treasury auction on Tuesday, the undergraduate loan interest rate in the United States for the 2025-26 academic year is expected to be 6.39%. The annual interest rate calculation formula is usually based on the yield of the May auction, plus 2.05 percentage points. The figure of 6.39% is slightly lower than last years 6.53%, but it is still close to the highest level since the Great Recession in 2008. Under federal law, the upper limit of the loan interest rate is 8.25%.Karen Manna of Federated Hermes said on May 7 that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell may not be able to satisfy investors thirst for clarity when he speaks to reporters after tomorrows interest rate decision. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, and Powell may face questions about the impact of tariffs on inflation and the economy. The final level of tariffs and their duration remain unknown, which limits Powells ability to provide more clear information. "Forecasting is always difficult, and it is almost impossible to make forecasts when the target is constantly changing." She expects this uncertainty to continue until the Feds June meeting unless there are substantial changes.Pakistans Defense Minister: Conflict between Pakistan and India is "imminent".On May 7, according to British officials and documents, Britain is pressuring the European Union to more clearly support Britains participation in a 150 billion euro defense fund, after the first draft of the proposed security agreement basically did not mention this request. British Prime Minister Starmers government hopes to have firmer words on defense industry cooperation and joint fight against illegal immigration. The two sides are striving to reach an agreement before the London summit scheduled for May 19. British officials said they will work with the European Union in the coming days to draft a final document to send a stronger message on the ambitions of defense industrial policy. Although the draft mentioned exploring the possibility of both sides participating in their respective defense plans, it did not mention Britains goal of obtaining a 150 billion euro fund, nor did it explain how to achieve this goal.

Silver Price Prediction: XAG/USD falls below the 200-day moving average after US Retail Sales

Alina Haynes

Feb 16, 2023 14:48

截屏2022-08-04 下午5.12.51_1024x576.png 

 

Silver price dropped for the second consecutive day, leaving the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $21.93 in the rearview mirror, as the Commerce Department reported that Retail Sales increased. The statistics supported a resurgence of the US Dollar (USD), putting downward pressure on Silver.

 

At the time of writing, the XAG/USD is trading at $21.50, having reached a peak of $21.87.

 

The XAG/USD exchange rate continues to decline, driven down by the strength of the US dollar, which, supported by rising US Treasury bond yields, advances 0.64 percent to 103.93 on the US Dollar Index. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield has increased by three and a half basis points to 3.772%, which is negative for the non-yielding metal.

 

After two consecutive months of decline, January retail sales in the United States increased by an astounding 3.0% month-over-month versus expectations of 1.8%. The majority of the increase in sales can be linked to a tight labor market, which continues to create robust pay growth, while rising fuel prices may have contributed to a rise in revenues at service stations.

 

Recent Industrial Production (IP) in the United States remained constant, as reported by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), but output was weaker than anticipated due to increasing borrowing rates in the manufacturing industry.

 

The US Federal Reserve may continue to tighten monetary conditions, with markets anticipating two additional 25-bps rate hikes, which would push the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) to the range of 5.00% to 5.250%.

 

A spate of Fed members remarked on Tuesday that the Fed is not done raising interest rates and echoed Fed Chair Powell's statement that rates will remain "higher for longer."

 

Consequently, Silver prices will stay under pressure, as a robust US Dollar will continue to harm the white metal. Silver could experience a rise once the Federal Reserve halts its tightening cycle, as it is expected to do so until 2024. Nonetheless, a hawkish Fed would boost the US Dollar's short-term prospects, which would impact on Silver.

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