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Domestic News: 1. The State Taxation Administration clarified the threshold for value-added tax (VAT) collection and management. 2. Wang Yi held strategic communication with Sergei Shoigu, Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation. 3. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC): Investors should closely monitor changes in precious metal prices and reasonably control their position size. 4. The first-month performance reports of emerging electric vehicle manufacturers in the new year are released. Xiaomi, Wenjie, and HarmonyOS performed well, while BYDs production and sales both declined. 5. Guotou Silver LOF: Trading will be suspended from the opening of the market on February 2nd until 10:30 am on the same day. The daily price fluctuation limit after resumption of trading will be 10%. 6. China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom announced: The scope of application of VAT on telecommunications services has been adjusted, and the tax rate has increased to 9%, which will affect the companys revenue and profits. International News: 1. The Speaker of the Iranian Parliament announced that the armies of European countries will be considered "terrorist organizations." 2. US media: The Speaker of the US House of Representatives said he is confident that the partial government shutdown will end by Tuesday. 3. Zelensky: A new round of trilateral talks between Ukraine, the US, and Russia will be held on February 4th and 5th. 4. Saudi stocks suffered their biggest drop since June last year due to geopolitical factors and a gold price plunge. 5. Indias budget: 400 billion rupees will be allocated to support the semiconductor manufacturing industry. 6. Indias stock market held a special trading session on Sunday due to the budget, with metal stocks and ETFs suffering heavy losses. 7. OPEC+ statement: Eight member countries will maintain their original plan to suspend increases in oil production in March. 8. US-Iran situation—① It is reported that high-ranking US and Israeli military officials held intensive talks this weekend to discuss a strike against Iran. ② Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei stated that if the US launches a war this time, it will trigger a regional conflict. ③ Iranian officials: Media reports about the Revolutionary Guard planning military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz are incorrect. ④ US media: The US military is strengthening its air defense deployment in the Middle East to prepare for potential action against Iran.OPEC+ Statement: The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) reiterated the importance of full compliance with oil production targets.On February 1st, OPEC+ held an online meeting to assess the global market situation and outlook. The eight participating countries reaffirmed the decision made on November 2nd, 2025, to suspend increased production in March 2026 due to seasonal factors. The eight countries reiterated that the previous production cut of 1.65 million barrels per day may be partially or fully restored depending on market developments, and this will be done gradually. Countries will continue to closely monitor and assess market conditions, and while continuing efforts to maintain market stability, reiterated the importance of a cautious approach and sufficient flexibility to continue suspending (increased production) or canceling additional (production cuts), including the voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day announced in November 2023. The organization will hold its next meeting on March 1st, 2026.OPEC+ statement: Reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining market stability, and stated that the global economic outlook is stable and the current oil market fundamentals are healthy with low inventory levels.OPEC+ statement: The eight member countries will maintain their original plan to suspend increasing oil production in March.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD nears $1,850 resistance on China, yields favor DXY decline

Daniel Rogers

Feb 16, 2023 14:42

 截屏2023-01-19 下午3.43.28.png

 

Gold price (XAU/USD) shows modest increases near $1,840 as traders lick their wounds during Thursday's early slow activity. In doing so, the precious metal recovers from its largest daily decline in two weeks by drawing cues from cautious market optimism and a weakening U.S. dollar.

 

However, news reports concerning China and the U.S. debt ceiling appear to have supported the recent improvement in the risk profile. Consequently, Chinese President Xi Jinping crossed wires while demonstrating his willingness to expand industrial and investment cooperation with Asia. According to Chinese official media, he was followed by optimistic remarks from Chinese Finance Minister Liu Kun, who stated that 2023 fiscal revenue will increase this year, albeit at a moderate rate. Moreover, the chatter surrounding the US debt-ceiling crisis, as warned by the US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) on Wednesday according to Reuters, appeared to have raised hopes for a speedier resolution of the major issue in the coming days and probed the upward movement of US Treasury bond yields.

 

It should be noted that the World Gold Council's (WGC) update indicating China's massive Gold imports in 2022, the largest since 2018, appeared to have stabilized the XAU/USD exchange rate, particularly following the previous day's decline.

 

The US data-driven hawkish Fed bias and a rise in US Treasury bond yields appear to present the greatest threat to Gold buyers.

 

In this context, S&P 500 Futures post modest gains around 4,165 while extending yesterday's gains, while US 10-year Treasury note rates retreat following Wednesday's surge to a 1.5-month high, falling two basis points to approximately 3.78% as of press time. In spite of this, the US Dollar Index (DXY) fell 0.20% to 103.65 at the latest, after reaching a 1.5-month high the day before.

 

For new impetus, gold traders should focus on secondary US statistics about the housing market, industrial activity, and producer prices.


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