EUR/USD
1.14102
0.359%
Gold
4092.59
0.961%
Oil
83.056
-6.198%
USD/JPY
163.561
-0.175%
GBP/USD
1.33560
0.264%
GBP/JPY
218.457
0.088%
Real-time News
On July 27, retired U.S. Air Force Colonel Cedric Leighton stated that Iran may have an advantage over the United States in sustaining a protracted conflict because Iran still maintains a large weapons stockpile, while the U.S. is depleting its advanced precision-guided munitions, replenishment of which could take years. Leighton stated, "Iran still possesses a large stockpile of missiles, drones, and rockets." He estimated that despite months of U.S. strikes, Tehran still retains approximately two-thirds of its original weapons stockpile. Leighton added that while the U.S. strikes successfully destroyed command and control centers, weapons systems, and military infrastructure, they did not diminish Irans ability to continue its attacks. He cited an estimate that over 1,400 Patriot interceptor missiles may have been used to date in the conflict with Iran; if this figure is accurate, the U.S. defenses in other regions could become vulnerable while it replenishes its stockpiles.On July 27th, Elmar Voelker, senior fixed income analyst at LBBW, stated in a report that investors may focus on the number of potential dissenting votes in the Federal Reserves interest rate decision on Wednesday. He said, "We believe there could be up to three dissenting votes, as a similar number of votes were cast against the Feds then accommodative forward guidance back in April." Voelker added that if the Fed unanimously decides to adopt a wait-and-see monetary policy stance, it would be a positive surprise for the bond market, as it would shake current market participants consensus that a September rate hike is almost a certainty.On July 27th, BlueBay Chief Investment Officer Mark Dowding stated in a report that investors have every reason to believe that Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh will tend to make hawkish statements and do everything possible to solidify his reputation as an inflation fighter, although he is unlikely to take any concrete action at present. He stated, "This could lead to a further flattening of the US yield curve in the short term." However, Dowding also pointed out that given the continued deterioration of the US fiscal situation and Trumps escalating spending on Middle East conflicts, these factors could eventually cause the yield curve to steepen again at some point in the future.July 27 – According to The Hill, U.S. Senator Bill Cassidy said on Sunday that it “seems unlikely” for Trump to end the war with Iran quickly, and suggested that Trump seek a path to peace from Congress. Cassidy stated, “I do think we need a more comprehensive national discussion about how to move forward. If the president can end this conflict quickly—which seems unlikely, but they still seem to be assuring us that it can be done. Well, that’s fine too.” Cassidy has consistently criticized Trump’s handling of the war, particularly its impact on the cost of living. In May, after failing to retain his Senate seat, Cassidy became one of four Republican senators supporting a war powers resolution that calls for Trump to withdraw U.S. troops deployed in Iran.July 27th - Economists predict that the Bank of England will take a hawkish stance at its meeting this week, but will keep interest rates unchanged, amid renewed Middle East conflict and soaring energy prices. Since the Monetary Policy Committees last meeting in June, the breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement has pushed global oil prices back to around $100 per barrel, and European natural gas prices have surged to their highest level since the beginning of the conflict. Oil prices could rise further if shipping routes in the Gulf region continue to be disrupted. The UK economy performed better than the Monetary Policy Committees expectations at the beginning of the conflict, with GDP growing by 0.7% in the three months to May. Currently, there are few signs that the energy shock will trigger more persistent price pressures. The CPI has been below expectations for three consecutive months, falling to 2.6% in June. Wage growth, a major source of inflationary pressure, has slowed, and food price increases have also declined. Economists say this will allow the Monetary Policy Committee to keep interest rates at 3.75% at Thursdays meeting, while signaling that the committee is prepared to tighten policy if energy prices rise sharply further, or if a one-off price shock begins to evolve into a more persistent problem.
