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August 10th - Data shows that Eurozone investor confidence returned to positive territory in August, marking its fourth consecutive month of increase, thanks to a significant improvement in current economic conditions and continued market confidence in the economic recovery. Sentix data indicates that the improvement was primarily driven by a significant rebound in investors assessment of the current situation, with expectations indicators also improving. Sentix added that the confidence shock triggered by the Iran war appears to have been partially absorbed, although high energy costs and weak orders continue to weigh on the outlook. Further stabilization of the German economy is expected, with stronger economic data and 0.2% growth in the second quarter helping the country avoid another recession.Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: We are in dialogue with all countries in the region on building trust and endogenous security mechanisms.The onshore yuan closed at 6.7442 against the US dollar at 16:30 on August 10, up 59 points from the previous trading day.The Eurozones Sentix investor confidence index for August was 0.9, compared to a forecast of -0.5 and a previous reading of -3.1.On August 10th, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia stated that its current baseline expectation is for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to maintain its current interest rate stance and continue using hawkish language. This combination of "holding steady but not turning dovish" means that the interest rate decision itself has limited guidance for the short-term movement of the Australian dollar. A more market-relevant signal is the expectation that the RBA will raise its unemployment rate forecast while simultaneously lowering its overall and core inflation forecasts. A substantial downward revision to the inflation forecast, even if the RBA maintains a pro-rate-hike stance in its rhetoric, would be interpreted by the market as opening the door to further easing. Further escalation of the Middle East conflict could lead to additional cost shifts in the third quarter, a factor of uncertainty that could force the RBA to adopt a more hawkish stance than simply supported by data.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU / USD will continue to fluctuate above $1,900 despite a decline in US Inflation

Daniel Rogers

Mar 15, 2023 11:43

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Gold price (XAU / USD) is not in danger despite U.S. inflation figures meeting expectations. Since Monday, the precious metal has been fluctuating continuously between $1,895 and $1,913. The release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) failed to produce a significant reaction in the Gold price; however, the upside bias appears to be solidified as wagers on lesser rate increases from the Federal Reserve (Fed) have increased.

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is protecting the critical support at 103.50, but it appears vulnerable to further losses as investors' risk appetite has dramatically increased. As market participants purchased S&P500 futures in response to higher odds of a smaller rate hike from Fed chair Jerome Powell, a likely recession in the US economy was postponed, signaling an uptick in optimism.

 

Contrary to the risk-on sentiment, demand for US Treasury bonds remained weak, causing 10-year US Treasury yields to rise above 3.68 percent.

 

The headline As anticipated, the US CPI increased by 0.4% on a monthly basis, and the annual figure decreased from 6.4% to 6.0%. In addition, the core CPI, which excludes crude and food prices, decreased to 5.5% from 5.6% previously. The Fed appears to be pleased with the persistence of a declining trend in US inflation.

 

In the future, investors will closely monitor the US Retail Sales (Feb) data. Monthly Retail Sales data is anticipated to decline by 0.3% compared to the previous release of a 3.0% increase. This indicates that the consumer spending rebound is over and the Fed is on course to achieve its inflation target of 2%.

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