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On March 21st, HSBC stated that the Federal Reserve maintained its policy rate at 3.50%-3.75% at its March meeting, hinting at a "wait-and-see" approach. Persistent inflation and rising geopolitical risks have created uncertainty for the Fed. We maintain our previous view that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in 2026 and 2027. Inflation risks have increased, particularly due to soaring energy prices, while labor market risks have slightly decreased. Energy price volatility and geopolitical risks should continue to support safe-haven demand and a stronger dollar.Iraq says Iranian natural gas supplies have resumed, with a daily supply of 5 million cubic meters.On March 21, Brazilian President Lula da Silva stated during a visit to an oil refinery in Minas Gerais state on March 20 that the escalating conflict in the Middle East necessitates that Petrobras and the government "establish strategic oil reserves" to cope with any potential consequences of the conflict. He warned that if the war continues, and if the United States were to destroy the Strait of Hormuz, the oil crisis "will only worsen." Previously, on March 12, the Brazilian government announced the exemption of import and sales taxes on diesel fuel, while imposing a 12% export tax on crude oil to mitigate the spillover risks from the Middle East situation.On March 21, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment held a symposium on supporting the green and low-carbon development of private enterprises. Minister Huang Runqiu emphasized the need to further increase support, optimize institutional supply and policy environment, and continuously improve the green development level of private enterprises. He stressed the importance of deepening market mechanism construction, optimizing the allocation of resource and environmental factors, fully leveraging the carbon pricing function, and continuously deepening the reform of emissions trading to provide a more fair, transparent, and predictable market environment for the green transformation of private enterprises. He also emphasized strengthening fiscal and tax policy guidance, innovating the use of fiscal funds, implementing and improving green tax policies, optimizing green pricing mechanisms, and promoting the reduction of transformation costs for private enterprises. Furthermore, he called for vigorously developing green finance, improving the collaborative promotion mechanism for green and low-carbon projects, innovating investment and financing models, improving green finance standards, and guiding more financial resources to precisely support the green and low-carbon development of private enterprises. He stressed the need to standardize corporate environmental information disclosure and credit evaluation, promote the interconnection of environmental information, and provide more comprehensive credit enhancement services for private enterprises. Finally, he emphasized strengthening the empowerment of technological innovation, encouraging participation in national science and technology programs, promoting the establishment of departmental special funds, actively supporting the application and promotion of new technologies, and continuously stimulating the endogenous driving force for the green transformation of private enterprises.An Iranian military spokesman said the United States and Israel are targeting civilian and passenger ships in the Gulf region and warned of retaliatory action.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU / USD will continue to fluctuate above $1,900 despite a decline in US Inflation

Daniel Rogers

Mar 15, 2023 11:43

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Gold price (XAU / USD) is not in danger despite U.S. inflation figures meeting expectations. Since Monday, the precious metal has been fluctuating continuously between $1,895 and $1,913. The release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) failed to produce a significant reaction in the Gold price; however, the upside bias appears to be solidified as wagers on lesser rate increases from the Federal Reserve (Fed) have increased.

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is protecting the critical support at 103.50, but it appears vulnerable to further losses as investors' risk appetite has dramatically increased. As market participants purchased S&P500 futures in response to higher odds of a smaller rate hike from Fed chair Jerome Powell, a likely recession in the US economy was postponed, signaling an uptick in optimism.

 

Contrary to the risk-on sentiment, demand for US Treasury bonds remained weak, causing 10-year US Treasury yields to rise above 3.68 percent.

 

The headline As anticipated, the US CPI increased by 0.4% on a monthly basis, and the annual figure decreased from 6.4% to 6.0%. In addition, the core CPI, which excludes crude and food prices, decreased to 5.5% from 5.6% previously. The Fed appears to be pleased with the persistence of a declining trend in US inflation.

 

In the future, investors will closely monitor the US Retail Sales (Feb) data. Monthly Retail Sales data is anticipated to decline by 0.3% compared to the previous release of a 3.0% increase. This indicates that the consumer spending rebound is over and the Fed is on course to achieve its inflation target of 2%.

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