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Futures News, April 9th: 1. Heavy rainfall and severe convective weather are expected in southern Jianghuai and northern Jiangnan regions. From April 9th to 10th, moderate to heavy rain is expected in parts of southern Jianghuai and northern Jiangnan, with localized torrential rain or extremely heavy rain, accompanied by short-term heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, strong winds, or hail. ② The Central Meteorological Observatory continued to issue a blue rainstorm warning and a yellow convective weather warning at 06:00 on April 9th. It is expected that from 08:00 on April 9th to 08:00 on April 10th, heavy rain is expected in parts of southern Anhui, southern Jiangsu, southeastern Hubei, northeastern Hunan, northern Jiangxi, and northern Zhejiang, with torrential rain in parts of southern Anhui, northern Jiangxi, and northern Zhejiang, and localized extremely heavy rain (100-110 mm). These areas will also experience short-term heavy rainfall (maximum hourly rainfall of 20-40 mm, locally exceeding 50 mm). 1. Thunderstorms with winds of level 8 or higher, or hail, are expected in parts of eastern Jianghan Plain and northern Jiangnan region. Parts of southeastern Hubei, northern Jiangxi, and northeastern Hunan will experience thunderstorms with winds of level 10 or higher, with maximum wind speeds reaching level 11 or higher. The possibility of tornadoes cannot be ruled out in some areas. 2. Heavy rainfall occurred in Argentina and Brazil. Yesterday, moderate to heavy rain occurred in eastern Argentina, southern Brazil, Uruguay, southern Paraguay, the southeastern coast of the United States, northern Palestine, Indonesia, and Malaysia, with some areas experiencing torrential rain or extremely heavy rain. In addition, moderate to heavy snow or sleet occurred in southern Canada, the Great Lakes region, the Labrador Peninsula, Iceland, Norway, Finland, central Russia, and northern Inner Mongolia, with some areas experiencing blizzards or extremely heavy snow. 3. Blizzards occurred in central and southern Russia and the Far East. Over the next three days, affected by a cold vortex, moderate to heavy snow or sleet is expected in parts of southern Central Siberia, the Far East, northern Mongolia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and high-altitude areas of central Afghanistan, with some areas experiencing heavy to blizzard conditions and localized blizzards.According to data from shipping intelligence company Kpler, no oil tankers have passed through the Strait of Hormuz since the ceasefire was reached yesterday; the four vessels that have passed through were all dry cargo ships.On April 9th, Futures News reported that, according to foreign media, soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed slightly higher on Wednesday, with the benchmark contract rising 0.3%, mainly reflecting market optimism regarding the talks. However, the two-week temporary ceasefire agreement reached between the US and Iran, coupled with a sharp drop in crude oil futures, limited the upside potential for the soybean market. Nevertheless, market expectations that rising fertilizer costs will incentivize US farmers to expand soybean planting areas put some pressure on soybean prices. The market awaits the US Department of Agricultures monthly supply and demand report and weekly export sales data to be released on Thursday. Analysts expect US net soybean sales for the week ending April 2nd to be between 200,000 and 650,000 tons. In comparison, last weeks US net soybean sales for the 2025/26 marketing year were 353,300 tons.On April 9th, Futures News reported that, according to foreign media, Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn futures closed slightly lower on Wednesday, with the benchmark contract down about 0.4%, mainly reflecting the plunge in international crude oil prices and favorable spring planting conditions. However, strong ethanol production may reduce corn planting area this year, limiting the downside potential of the corn market. The two-week temporary ceasefire agreement reached between the US and Iran led to a sharp drop in international crude oil futures, which dragged down the corn market. In addition, the start of spring planting in the southern US, with no major weather concerns, has also exacerbated the weakness in corn prices. According to the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), most of the Corn Belt is likely to receive rainfall this weekend, with estimated rainfall of 0.75 inches or more from eastern Kansas to Michigan. However, given high fertilizer costs, the corn market needs to maintain a certain premium to stimulate corn planting, which has provided some support for prices.South Korea will announce follow-up policy measures regarding the fuel price cap at 7 p.m. local time on Thursday.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU / USD will continue to fluctuate above $1,900 despite a decline in US Inflation

Daniel Rogers

Mar 15, 2023 11:43

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Gold price (XAU / USD) is not in danger despite U.S. inflation figures meeting expectations. Since Monday, the precious metal has been fluctuating continuously between $1,895 and $1,913. The release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) failed to produce a significant reaction in the Gold price; however, the upside bias appears to be solidified as wagers on lesser rate increases from the Federal Reserve (Fed) have increased.

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is protecting the critical support at 103.50, but it appears vulnerable to further losses as investors' risk appetite has dramatically increased. As market participants purchased S&P500 futures in response to higher odds of a smaller rate hike from Fed chair Jerome Powell, a likely recession in the US economy was postponed, signaling an uptick in optimism.

 

Contrary to the risk-on sentiment, demand for US Treasury bonds remained weak, causing 10-year US Treasury yields to rise above 3.68 percent.

 

The headline As anticipated, the US CPI increased by 0.4% on a monthly basis, and the annual figure decreased from 6.4% to 6.0%. In addition, the core CPI, which excludes crude and food prices, decreased to 5.5% from 5.6% previously. The Fed appears to be pleased with the persistence of a declining trend in US inflation.

 

In the future, investors will closely monitor the US Retail Sales (Feb) data. Monthly Retail Sales data is anticipated to decline by 0.3% compared to the previous release of a 3.0% increase. This indicates that the consumer spending rebound is over and the Fed is on course to achieve its inflation target of 2%.