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On August 14th, Li Lecheng, Secretary of the Party Leadership Group and Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, recently visited Qinghai, Gansu, and Ningxia to investigate the development of the salt lake industry and the green and low-carbon development of industry. In Golmud City, Qinghai Province, Li Lecheng visited Qinghai Salt Lake Magnesium Industry, Potash Fertilizer, and Lithium Battery Company to investigate the production of integrated salt lake magnesium, potash fertilizer, and lithium salt projects. He emphasized the need for a scientifically planned development strategy for the salt lake industry, strengthened policy support and resource guarantees, optimization and strengthening of enterprises, promotion of resource integration and industrial synergy, tackling key core technologies in salt lake resource development, improving the efficiency of potassium, lithium, and magnesium resource development and utilization, and the level of deep processing, and creating a distinctive and advantageous industrial chain.On August 14th, Oxford Economics stated that Japans plan to cut the food consumption tax will widen the fiscal deficit and push up Japanese government bond yields. Economist Norihiro Yamaguchi wrote in a report that model calculations show the tax cuts will reduce Japans annual tax revenue by approximately 5 trillion yen, a loss that will be difficult to offset through other means. The institution expects some of the tax revenue loss to be offset by non-tax revenue and spending cuts, but assumes half of that will be financed through debt. The institution predicts Japans primary fiscal deficit will worsen to 3% of GDP, subsequently improving gradually from 2029 onwards as the debt-to-GDP ratio rises and fiscal consolidation intensifies. Oxford Economics projects that by the end of 2026, the yield on long-term Japanese government bonds will rise to approximately 3%, rather than remaining around 2.8%. Although the current reaction in the bond market is relatively limited, Oxford Economics believes that as more policy details emerge, the market will begin to gradually factor in the impact of the tax cuts on the fiscal situation.August 14th - According to foreign media reports, economists are now worried that the persistent high temperatures and lack of rainfall will increasingly drag down British economic activity. Currently, about two-thirds of England has officially entered a drought state, and newly appointed Prime Minister Andy Burnham convened an emergency meeting this week to discuss government measures to deal with the drought and wildfires. Increasing signs indicate that extreme heat is driving consumers away from high streets, impacting agricultural production, hindering construction, and dragging down labor productivity. An analysis by an agency on Friday showed that, so far, the heatwave has caused approximately £6 billion in losses to the British economy, equivalent to 0.2% of economic output. An economist stated, "The hot summer has brought yet another negative supply shock to the British economy. While the impact of the heatwave on GDP levels may only be temporary, the risk is that this heatwave could again push up prices in some sectors, thus creating new challenges for the Bank of England, which is already dealing with high inflation."A NATO military spokesperson stated that, following confirmation, an Italian Typhoon fighter jet eliminated the potential threat over an uninhabited area (regarding the earlier drone incident in Latvia).A NATO military spokesperson confirmed that NATO allied warplanes were scrambled due to a drone entering Latvian airspace.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU / USD will continue to fluctuate above $1,900 despite a decline in US Inflation

Daniel Rogers

Mar 15, 2023 11:43

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Gold price (XAU / USD) is not in danger despite U.S. inflation figures meeting expectations. Since Monday, the precious metal has been fluctuating continuously between $1,895 and $1,913. The release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) failed to produce a significant reaction in the Gold price; however, the upside bias appears to be solidified as wagers on lesser rate increases from the Federal Reserve (Fed) have increased.

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is protecting the critical support at 103.50, but it appears vulnerable to further losses as investors' risk appetite has dramatically increased. As market participants purchased S&P500 futures in response to higher odds of a smaller rate hike from Fed chair Jerome Powell, a likely recession in the US economy was postponed, signaling an uptick in optimism.

 

Contrary to the risk-on sentiment, demand for US Treasury bonds remained weak, causing 10-year US Treasury yields to rise above 3.68 percent.

 

The headline As anticipated, the US CPI increased by 0.4% on a monthly basis, and the annual figure decreased from 6.4% to 6.0%. In addition, the core CPI, which excludes crude and food prices, decreased to 5.5% from 5.6% previously. The Fed appears to be pleased with the persistence of a declining trend in US inflation.

 

In the future, investors will closely monitor the US Retail Sales (Feb) data. Monthly Retail Sales data is anticipated to decline by 0.3% compared to the previous release of a 3.0% increase. This indicates that the consumer spending rebound is over and the Fed is on course to achieve its inflation target of 2%.