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Market news: Apple (AAPL.O) has raised the price of its AppleCare+ service. The monthly plan for Mac and iPad will increase by 50 cents, and the annual plan will increase by $5. This only affects new users.July 16 - The Indian government announced adjustments to windfall profits taxes on petroleum products, effective July 16. Specifically, the windfall profits tax on diesel exports will increase from 8.5 rupees per liter to 15.5 rupees per liter, and the export tax on aviation turbine fuel will increase from 7.5 rupees per liter to 14.5 rupees per liter; while the export tax on gasoline will decrease from 4 rupees per liter to 2.5 rupees per liter.July 16th - The Federal Reserves Beige Book showed that overall U.S. price levels rose moderately. Of the 12 Fed districts, 9 reported moderate price increases, 2 reported stronger increases, and 1 reported a smaller increase, with the overall increase remaining flat or slowing compared to the previous period. The report stated that rising energy, transportation, and raw material costs pushed up business input costs, with some businesses attributing the pressure to the Middle East conflict and tariffs. Consumer prices continued to rise, squeezing the profit margins of some businesses. Market opinions are divided regarding future inflation trends; some expect inflation to remain at current levels, while others believe that declining fuel prices may alleviate the pressure.July 16th - The Federal Reserves Beige Book showed that the U.S. job market maintained overall growth. Of the 12 Fed districts, five saw modest, moderate, or significant job growth, while seven remained largely unchanged, an improvement from the previous period where only one district reported job growth. The report stated that employment increased in several sectors, including manufacturing, construction, and retail, but recruiting skilled workers and technicians remained difficult. Job losses occurred in some districts, but the declines were limited. Regarding wages, most districts saw modest to moderate wage growth, with some increases related to companies competing for skilled labor. Furthermore, a few districts saw companies increasingly utilizing artificial intelligence for recruitment screening or to improve employee productivity.July 16th - The Federal Reserves Beige Book showed that U.S. economic activity grew slightly to moderately in 11 of the 12 Fed districts during the period from the end of May to June, with the overall growth rate roughly the same as the previous period. The report stated that factors such as high oil prices dampened some consumption, with consumers reducing spending on non-essential items and turning to lower-priced goods. Tourism saw some recovery, with World Cup-related travel providing a boost to some regions. Manufacturing maintained moderate growth, with orders increasing in data centers, machinery, and defense. Construction and real estate activity improved slightly, with data center construction being a bright spot. In addition, drilling activity in the energy sector increased, financial conditions were generally stable, and commercial and consumer lending rose moderately. However, agriculture was affected by declining commodity prices, rising costs, and tighter credit. Most respondents expected the economy to continue expanding in the coming months, but significant uncertainty remained regarding the outlook for fuel costs.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU / USD will continue to fluctuate above $1,900 despite a decline in US Inflation

Daniel Rogers

Mar 15, 2023 11:43

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Gold price (XAU / USD) is not in danger despite U.S. inflation figures meeting expectations. Since Monday, the precious metal has been fluctuating continuously between $1,895 and $1,913. The release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) failed to produce a significant reaction in the Gold price; however, the upside bias appears to be solidified as wagers on lesser rate increases from the Federal Reserve (Fed) have increased.

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is protecting the critical support at 103.50, but it appears vulnerable to further losses as investors' risk appetite has dramatically increased. As market participants purchased S&P500 futures in response to higher odds of a smaller rate hike from Fed chair Jerome Powell, a likely recession in the US economy was postponed, signaling an uptick in optimism.

 

Contrary to the risk-on sentiment, demand for US Treasury bonds remained weak, causing 10-year US Treasury yields to rise above 3.68 percent.

 

The headline As anticipated, the US CPI increased by 0.4% on a monthly basis, and the annual figure decreased from 6.4% to 6.0%. In addition, the core CPI, which excludes crude and food prices, decreased to 5.5% from 5.6% previously. The Fed appears to be pleased with the persistence of a declining trend in US inflation.

 

In the future, investors will closely monitor the US Retail Sales (Feb) data. Monthly Retail Sales data is anticipated to decline by 0.3% compared to the previous release of a 3.0% increase. This indicates that the consumer spending rebound is over and the Fed is on course to achieve its inflation target of 2%.

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