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On June 26, according to Irans Press TV, US President Trump has again ordered that all Iraqi oil revenues controlled by Iraq be deposited into accounts at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Executive Order 13303 was originally signed after the US military action against Iraq in 2003 and has been renewed annually since, always citing "national security" as the reason. The White House has not issued a press release on this matter, but Trump sent a formal notification to Congress on May 4 regarding the extension of the order. In the formal notification, Trump stated: "The various obstacles hindering the orderly reconstruction of Iraq, the restoration and maintenance of domestic peace and security, and the development of political, administrative, and economic institutions continue to pose an exceptionally significant threat to US national security and foreign policy. Therefore, this Executive Order must remain in effect beyond May 22, 2026."According to Iranian state television, three foreign oil tankers that attempted to pass through the Strait of Hormuz "without authorization" were forced to turn back after warnings from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy.A Reuters poll shows that for the first time since 2023, more economists are predicting that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates rather than cut them.A Reuters poll showed that 78 of the 102 economists surveyed expect the Federal Reserve to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% in 2026, compared to 72 of the 102 economists surveyed in early June.A Reuters poll: The median poll indicates that the Federal Reserve will keep the federal funds rate in the range of 3.50% to 3.75% until the end of 2027 (while a poll in early June indicated a rate cut).

Gold Price Prediction: XAU / USD will continue to fluctuate above $1,900 despite a decline in US Inflation

Daniel Rogers

Mar 15, 2023 11:43

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Gold price (XAU / USD) is not in danger despite U.S. inflation figures meeting expectations. Since Monday, the precious metal has been fluctuating continuously between $1,895 and $1,913. The release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) failed to produce a significant reaction in the Gold price; however, the upside bias appears to be solidified as wagers on lesser rate increases from the Federal Reserve (Fed) have increased.

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is protecting the critical support at 103.50, but it appears vulnerable to further losses as investors' risk appetite has dramatically increased. As market participants purchased S&P500 futures in response to higher odds of a smaller rate hike from Fed chair Jerome Powell, a likely recession in the US economy was postponed, signaling an uptick in optimism.

 

Contrary to the risk-on sentiment, demand for US Treasury bonds remained weak, causing 10-year US Treasury yields to rise above 3.68 percent.

 

The headline As anticipated, the US CPI increased by 0.4% on a monthly basis, and the annual figure decreased from 6.4% to 6.0%. In addition, the core CPI, which excludes crude and food prices, decreased to 5.5% from 5.6% previously. The Fed appears to be pleased with the persistence of a declining trend in US inflation.

 

In the future, investors will closely monitor the US Retail Sales (Feb) data. Monthly Retail Sales data is anticipated to decline by 0.3% compared to the previous release of a 3.0% increase. This indicates that the consumer spending rebound is over and the Fed is on course to achieve its inflation target of 2%.

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