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Chart: Speculative Sentiment Index on Friday, June 12, 2026Trump halts strikes against Iran, says peace agreement to be signed "in the coming days," causing international oil prices to plummet. A quick chart shows the pre-market conversion of domestic and international crude oil prices.According to Futures News on June 12, as of 8:30 AM Beijing time, spot platinum rose 0.56% and spot palladium rose 1.50%.June 12 (Futures News) – Since the second quarter, gold prices have continued to decline, and market pessimism has spread. Signals from the options market indicate that some traders are betting that this decline will continue for the next two years. 1. According to ThinkOrSwim and SpotGamma data, approximately $200 million in premiums were traded in the GLD options market on Wednesday, of which $130 million was related to put options. Of the top 10 contracts by trading volume, 8 were put options, and more than half of the put option premiums were traded at or above the ask price, indicating that these contracts were primarily bought. The second most traded option contract was a put contract expiring in June 2028 with a strike price of $240, priced at $11.50 per contract – this is a deep bearish bet, meaning traders expect the GLD ETF (SPDR Gold Trust) to fall by approximately 40% over the next two years. 2. Market participants told Futures Daily that the recent decline in gold prices is not due to the collapse of the long-term bull market foundation, but rather to the concentrated release of short-term macroeconomic negative factors, among which the change in expectations for the Federal Reserves monetary policy is the core negative factor. 3. Lin Zhenlong, senior precious metals analyst at Shanjin Futures, added that the core reason for the more than 20% drop in gold prices since the beginning of the year is a phased shift in market pricing power, rather than a failure of long-term logic. Long-term supporting factors such as central bank gold purchases and de-dollarization remain unchanged, but the short-term trading focus has completely shifted to interest rates. The increase in US Treasury yields and the strengthening of the US dollar have raised the cost of holding gold, triggering a sell-off by bulls. Currently, the impact of real interest rates on gold prices far exceeds traditional supporting factors such as safe-haven assets. In the medium to long term, the supporting logic for a long-term bull market in gold remains solid. However, before a substantial shift in Federal Reserve policy and confirmation that US Treasury yields have peaked, gold is unlikely to start a trend of upward movement and will most likely continue to fluctuate and consolidate at the bottom. (This content and opinion are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.)Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 1.8%, German DAX futures rose 1.7%, and UK FTSE futures rose 0.9%.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU / USD will continue to fluctuate above $1,900 despite a decline in US Inflation

Daniel Rogers

Mar 15, 2023 11:43

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Gold price (XAU / USD) is not in danger despite U.S. inflation figures meeting expectations. Since Monday, the precious metal has been fluctuating continuously between $1,895 and $1,913. The release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) failed to produce a significant reaction in the Gold price; however, the upside bias appears to be solidified as wagers on lesser rate increases from the Federal Reserve (Fed) have increased.

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is protecting the critical support at 103.50, but it appears vulnerable to further losses as investors' risk appetite has dramatically increased. As market participants purchased S&P500 futures in response to higher odds of a smaller rate hike from Fed chair Jerome Powell, a likely recession in the US economy was postponed, signaling an uptick in optimism.

 

Contrary to the risk-on sentiment, demand for US Treasury bonds remained weak, causing 10-year US Treasury yields to rise above 3.68 percent.

 

The headline As anticipated, the US CPI increased by 0.4% on a monthly basis, and the annual figure decreased from 6.4% to 6.0%. In addition, the core CPI, which excludes crude and food prices, decreased to 5.5% from 5.6% previously. The Fed appears to be pleased with the persistence of a declining trend in US inflation.

 

In the future, investors will closely monitor the US Retail Sales (Feb) data. Monthly Retail Sales data is anticipated to decline by 0.3% compared to the previous release of a 3.0% increase. This indicates that the consumer spending rebound is over and the Fed is on course to achieve its inflation target of 2%.

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