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Forecast for the price of gold: Buyers of XAU/USD approach $1,800 on a weaker DXY ahead of US inflation

Alina Haynes

Aug 09, 2022 15:27

 截屏2022-06-07 下午5.14.47.png

 

The price of gold (XAU/USD) rose recently on the strength of a weaker US dollar and softer yields before rounding up to $1,790 on Tuesday during the first Asian session. The key started the week's trading on a strong note but fell by the end of the day, thus the metal's rising trajectory also borrowed ideas from equities.

 

US Dollar Index (DXY) followed Treasury rates to maintain Friday's significant gains, giving the greenback measure its first positive weekly result in three weeks. However, the US 10-year Treasury yields decreased by over seven basis points (bps) to 2.75 percent at the latest, following a 14-bps run-up on Sunday, while the DXY reported a 0.19 percent daily loss to 106.37 by Monday's conclusion.

 

The market's possible indifference to the US-China disputes over Taiwan and China's strong July trade figures may also work in the purchasers' favor. Despite this, the dragon country continues to conduct military exercises close to the Taiwan border, despite recent US signals to the contrary. China's trade statistics for July are also included. Compared to predictions of $90 billion and $97.94 billion, the overall trade balance increased to $101.26 billion. More information indicates that imports fell to 2.3 percent compared to 3.7 percent predicted and 1.0 percent prior, and exports rose by 18 percent, below expectations of 15 percent and 17.9 percent, respectively.

 

However, it's important to note that rising hawkish Fed bets and the Fed's policymakers' support for the rapid rate hikes put the XAU/USD bulls under pressure. Despite this, following the positive US jobs report for July, interest rate futures indicated a 73 percent possibility of a 75 basis point rate hike by the Fed in September. The headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased to 528K, exceeding the 250K expectation and the 398K previously upwardly revised. Additionally, the unemployment rate decreased slightly to 3.5 percent from the predicted and previous readings of 3.6 percent.

 

Following the release of the data, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly stated over the weekend that the Fed's fight against inflation was far from over. The policymaker also stated that a 50 bps increase was unquestionably in the cards. We must have an open mind. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman echoed this sentiment when she stated that the Fed "should consider additional 75 basis-point interest rate hikes at upcoming meetings in order to bring excessive inflation back down to the central bank's target."

 

Future gold buyers may benefit from the weakening US dollar as well as the technical information provided below. The US Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs for the second quarter will be crucial to monitor (Q2). Forecasts indicate that US Nonfarm Productivity may increase to -4.6 percent from -7.3 percent before, while Unit Labor Costs may decrease to 9.5 percent from 12.6 percent previously. Additionally, news about Russia and Taiwan will be crucial for obtaining precise instructions.

 

The price of gold not only recovered from a crucial short-term support line, but also crossed the 50-DMA for the first time since late April on a daily closure. In order to inspire confidence in purchasers, the rising rise takes cues from the higher RSI (14), which is not overbought, as well as positive MACD signals.

 

Having said that, the XAU/USD buyers are prepared to push through the $1,802 Fibonacci retracement of the April-July slide to reprise the monthly high near the $1,800 mark.

 

But beyond that, a downward-sloping resistance line from mid-June, near $1,827, would pose a problem for the gold bulls. The metal's short-term downside might be constrained by the 50-DMA and the aforementioned support line, which are respectively located near $1,786 and $1,780.

 

The 21-DMA and the 23.6 percent Fibonacci retracement level, which are located at $1,755 and $1,741 in that order, could then catch the attention of the XAU/USD sellers. Overall, the price of gold seems poised to build on recent gains and move closer to the 1.5-month-old resistance line.


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