EUR/USD 1.16003
-0.071%
Gold 5163.36
1.599%
Oil 88.959
14.426%
USD/JPY 157.784
0.149%
GBP/USD 1.33892
0.237%
GBP/JPY 211.265
0.403%
Browse More
  • English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
March 7th - According to foreign media reports, a growing number of energy industry executives and traders are warning that with each day the war continues, the world is one step closer to a crisis – some predict oil prices could reach $100 a barrel within days. Despite a surge in oil and gas prices this week, they remain well below the highs reached shortly after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. On Friday, the initial calm in the crude oil market dissipated, with international oil prices surging above $90 a barrel. Nevertheless, executives from four major trading firms predict that oil prices could reach $100 within days unless the situation eases. The physical energy market is already showing signs of pressure, with refinery cuts in the Middle East and Asia causing prices for products such as diesel and jet fuel to soar. McNally, president of consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group, said, "Once the market realizes that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will last for weeks rather than a temporary interruption, we expect Brent crude prices to reach $100 a barrel or even higher in the coming days to weeks."The Israel Defense Forces said it has detected another round of ballistic missile launches by Iran.On March 7th, Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammark stated on Friday that she believes there is no need to adjust the monetary policy stance in the current economic environment where inflation remains excessively high. In her prepared remarks at the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum in New York City, Hammark said that given the Feds need to balance high inflation and a weak labor market, these factors, coupled with last years interest rate cuts, place current monetary policy in a favorable position, and the central banks interest rate target has a neutral impact on the economy. Hammark stated, "Based on my baseline scenario, I think policy should remain on hold for a considerable period, awaiting evidence of declining inflation and further stabilization in the labor market." She added, "However, its easy to imagine other scenarios, so I think there are two-way risks to interest rates."Federal Reserves Hamack: Inflation is a far more extensive issue than tariffs.Federal Reserves Hamak: We remain committed to achieving the Feds employment and inflation goals.

Forecast for the price of gold: Buyers of XAU/USD approach $1,800 on a weaker DXY ahead of US inflation

Alina Haynes

Aug 09, 2022 15:27

 截屏2022-06-07 下午5.14.47.png

 

The price of gold (XAU/USD) rose recently on the strength of a weaker US dollar and softer yields before rounding up to $1,790 on Tuesday during the first Asian session. The key started the week's trading on a strong note but fell by the end of the day, thus the metal's rising trajectory also borrowed ideas from equities.

 

US Dollar Index (DXY) followed Treasury rates to maintain Friday's significant gains, giving the greenback measure its first positive weekly result in three weeks. However, the US 10-year Treasury yields decreased by over seven basis points (bps) to 2.75 percent at the latest, following a 14-bps run-up on Sunday, while the DXY reported a 0.19 percent daily loss to 106.37 by Monday's conclusion.

 

The market's possible indifference to the US-China disputes over Taiwan and China's strong July trade figures may also work in the purchasers' favor. Despite this, the dragon country continues to conduct military exercises close to the Taiwan border, despite recent US signals to the contrary. China's trade statistics for July are also included. Compared to predictions of $90 billion and $97.94 billion, the overall trade balance increased to $101.26 billion. More information indicates that imports fell to 2.3 percent compared to 3.7 percent predicted and 1.0 percent prior, and exports rose by 18 percent, below expectations of 15 percent and 17.9 percent, respectively.

 

However, it's important to note that rising hawkish Fed bets and the Fed's policymakers' support for the rapid rate hikes put the XAU/USD bulls under pressure. Despite this, following the positive US jobs report for July, interest rate futures indicated a 73 percent possibility of a 75 basis point rate hike by the Fed in September. The headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased to 528K, exceeding the 250K expectation and the 398K previously upwardly revised. Additionally, the unemployment rate decreased slightly to 3.5 percent from the predicted and previous readings of 3.6 percent.

 

Following the release of the data, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly stated over the weekend that the Fed's fight against inflation was far from over. The policymaker also stated that a 50 bps increase was unquestionably in the cards. We must have an open mind. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman echoed this sentiment when she stated that the Fed "should consider additional 75 basis-point interest rate hikes at upcoming meetings in order to bring excessive inflation back down to the central bank's target."

 

Future gold buyers may benefit from the weakening US dollar as well as the technical information provided below. The US Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs for the second quarter will be crucial to monitor (Q2). Forecasts indicate that US Nonfarm Productivity may increase to -4.6 percent from -7.3 percent before, while Unit Labor Costs may decrease to 9.5 percent from 12.6 percent previously. Additionally, news about Russia and Taiwan will be crucial for obtaining precise instructions.

 

The price of gold not only recovered from a crucial short-term support line, but also crossed the 50-DMA for the first time since late April on a daily closure. In order to inspire confidence in purchasers, the rising rise takes cues from the higher RSI (14), which is not overbought, as well as positive MACD signals.

 

Having said that, the XAU/USD buyers are prepared to push through the $1,802 Fibonacci retracement of the April-July slide to reprise the monthly high near the $1,800 mark.

 

But beyond that, a downward-sloping resistance line from mid-June, near $1,827, would pose a problem for the gold bulls. The metal's short-term downside might be constrained by the 50-DMA and the aforementioned support line, which are respectively located near $1,786 and $1,780.

 

The 21-DMA and the 23.6 percent Fibonacci retracement level, which are located at $1,755 and $1,741 in that order, could then catch the attention of the XAU/USD sellers. Overall, the price of gold seems poised to build on recent gains and move closer to the 1.5-month-old resistance line.


Suggestion