EUR/USD 1.15371
-0.410%
Gold 3441.96
1.632%
Oil 72.544
7.398%
USD/JPY 144.510
0.724%
GBP/USD 1.35457
-0.494%
GBP/JPY 195.752
0.256%
Browse More
  • English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
On June 16, CICC pointed out that in the first half of 2025, although policy uncertainty has increased significantly, the global economy as a whole is running smoothly, and other major central banks except the Federal Reserve continue to cut interest rates. In the second half of the year, the economic momentum of the United States and non-US regions will converge, mainly driven by the slowdown in the US economy. Non-US regions have certain advantages due to relatively loose monetary policies and room for repair of output gaps, but the extent of repair in the second half of the year is constrained by high policy uncertainty and the front-end of exports and growth in the first half of the year. Against this background, we are more optimistic about opportunities in non-US regions in the second half of the year, remain relatively optimistic about the European market, and increase the weight of emerging markets. However, we believe that the differentiation of regional performance may be smaller than in the first half of the year, and we recommend a balanced allocation.Market News: The Swiss Embassy, which represents US interests in Tehran, has been closed until further notice.According to Iranian media Rouydad24: In the early hours of Monday local time, the air defense system near the Pasteur Center area was activated. This area is the official residence of Irans supreme leader and president.On June 16, WuXi Biologics announced on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that on June 14, the companys board of directors was informed by one of the companys major shareholders that it had entered into a block transaction agreement with Morgan Stanley International plc, pursuant to which the placing agent has agreed to place 82,940,000 existing shares of the company held by Biologics Holdings (equivalent to approximately 2.04% of the total issued share capital of the company as of the date of this announcement) at a price of HK$26.60 per share to parties independent of and not connected with the company. Note: WuXi Biologics (02269.HK)s latest closing price is HK$28.On June 16, the article stated that protecting the rights of car owners is a must-answer question for the development of the automobile industry. Looking forward to the future of new energy vehicles, technological progress and consumer rights protection will surely move forward in tandem. All parties work together to build a comprehensive and multi-level rights protection network, so that consumers can buy and use cars with peace of mind, which will surely continue to inject confidence and motivation into the high-quality development of the new energy vehicle industry.

EUR/USD Recovers from 50-Day SMA as US NFP Report Is Released

Drake Hampton

Apr 01, 2022 10:17

Discussion Points Regarding the EUR/USD Rate

The EUR/USD is struggling to hold its gains from earlier this week after testing the 50-Day SMA (1.1173), and new data prints from the US may weigh on the currency, as the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is expected to show more improvement in the job market.

 

With the US NFP report on the horizon, the EUR/USD is reversing from its 50-day moving average.

 

EUR/USD falls from a new weekly high (1.1185) as European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Philip Lane calms speculation about a monetary policy shift, stating that "the degree of monetary policy stimulus put in place to address the pre-pandemic challenge of persistent below-target inflation can be gradually normalised towards a more neutral setting."

 

Lane continues, "the calibration of net purchases for the third quarter will be data-dependent and reflect our evolving assessment of the outlook," implying that the Governing Council is not in a hurry to normalize monetary policy, as the board member insists that "any adjustments to our interest rates will be gradual."

 

As a result, diverging monetary policy paths may continue to produce headwinds for EUR/USD as the Federal Reserve plans to implement a series of rate hikes over the coming months, and the NFP report may push the central bank to normalize monetary policy at a faster pace as the economy is expected to add 490K jobs in March.

 

image.png 

 

At the same time, the unemployment rate is expected to fall to 3.7 percent from 3.8 percent during the same period, the lowest reading since February 2020, and this development may force the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to adjust its exit strategy at the next interest rate decision on May 4, as the central bank "expects to begin reducing its holdings of Treasury securities, agency debt, and agency mortgage-backed securities at a coming meeting."

 

Until then, the EUR/USD may struggle to maintain its gain from the yearly low (1.0806) as the FOMC normalizes policy ahead of its European counterpart, while the retail mood tilt appears certain to continue, as traders have been net-long the pair since the middle of February.

 

image.png 

 

The number of traders net-long is 9.25 percent greater than yesterday and 10.55 percent lower than the previous week, while the number of traders net-short is 16.67 percent lower than yesterday and 1.78 percent lower than the previous week. The decrease in net-long interest has reduced crowding behavior, as 63.95 percent of traders were net-long EUR/USD earlier this week, while the decrease in net-short position comes as the currency manages to test the 50-Day SMA (1.1173).

 

Having said that, the EUR/USD may continue to pull back from the moving average as the US NFP report is expected to show further improvement in the labor market, and the advance from the yearly low (1.0806) may turn out to be a correction in the broader trend given the ECB and FOMC's diverging paths.

Suggestion