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According to The Information: A U.S. government framework requires AI labs to share models up to 90 days before their release; the government may sign an executive order as early as Thursday to establish the framework.On May 21, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting revealed that regarding the outlook for monetary policy, participants generally agreed that persistently high inflation and uncertainty surrounding the duration and economic impact of the Middle East conflict might necessitate maintaining the current policy stance for a longer period than expected. Some participants emphasized that a reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate might be appropriate once clear signs emerge that the downward trend in inflation has steadily resumed, or signs of further weakness in the labor market appear. However, most participants noted that if inflation persists above 2%, some tightening measures might be necessary. To address this scenario, many participants expressed a desire to remove language from the post-meeting statement that suggested a possible shift towards easing in future interest rate decisions. Participants pointed out that monetary policy is not static, and future policy decisions will depend on the specific circumstances of each meeting.On May 21, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting revealed that participants expected high energy prices to continue to exert upward pressure on overall inflation in the near term. Participants generally anticipated that the impact of tariffs on core goods inflation would gradually diminish throughout the year. However, some participants noted that tariff rates could potentially rise further above current levels, leading to greater upward pressure on inflation. Some participants emphasized that after several consecutive years of inflation exceeding 2%, high inflation could have a greater impact on wage and price-setting decisions. Almost all participants noted that the Middle East conflict could persist for a long time, or even after the conflict ends, oil and other commodity prices could remain high for longer than expected. In this scenario, participants expected that supply chain disruptions, high energy prices, or the passing on of rising input costs to other prices would continue to push up inflation. The vast majority of participants indicated that the risk of inflation returning to the Committees 2% target level might be increased, potentially taking longer than previously anticipated.On May 21, Federal Reserve staff maintained that the uncertainty surrounding forecasts remained high, given the potential economic consequences of the Middle East conflict and the application of artificial intelligence. Overall, the risks to employment and real GDP growth forecasts were considered skewed to the downside. Risks to inflation forecasts were considered skewed to the upside: inflation had been well above 2% for the past five years, the Middle East conflict could lead to further inflationary pressures, and upward price pressures were emerging in some categories that appeared unrelated to tariffs or energy prices. Therefore, staff believed that inflation could persist longer than expected, a significant risk.May 21 - Federal Reserve meeting minutes revealed that staffs inflation forecasts for this year are higher than those from the March meeting, reflecting the latest data, rising energy prices, and other impacts of the Middle East conflict, factors expected to push up consumer price inflation. Inflation is expected to slow after the first half of this year as the economic impacts of various conflict-related factors gradually subside and the transmission of tariff increases to inflation weakens; by the end of next year, the inflation rate is projected to be close to 2%.

The Australian Dollar's Future Could Be Revived by the RBA. Is it Better to Hike or Not to Hike?

Drake Hampton

Apr 02, 2022 09:48

Tips

  • On the back of robust commodities, the Australian dollar is testing previous highs.

  • The RBA may be on track for a May rate hike if CPI surprises to the upside.

  • Central banks intervene when transient inflation becomes entrenched.

 

The Australian Dollar has been bumping up against resistance levels, despite the fact that the Australian economy's basic fundamentals remain robust.

 

The currency is supported by a backdrop of rising commodity prices and a relatively solid national balance sheet.

 

By historical measures, the Australian dollar has depreciated since the float in 1983, while the terms of trade have remained multigenerational highs. This has a beneficial effect on the home economy.

 

Australia has enjoyed extraordinary prosperity since the RBA was authorized with an inflation targeting framework in 1993. While political parties of all stripes would like to claim credit for the positive outcome, the reality is that the central bank's prudent management has been critical in preserving the nation's riches and economic health.

 

The RBA is expected to encounter a hurdle at its May 3rd monetary policy meeting, but it is one they have faced previously. Australian CPI data will be released on April 27th, and all indicators are that it will likely shoot the lights out. Prior to May 21st, a federal election will be place.

 

The market is pricing in a slim possibility of a May hike but a significant probability of the first rate hike in June. The RBA said following its February meeting that it will wait until the first-quarter CPI statistic is released before making a rate decision.

 

The market appears to believe the RBA will postpone its decision until after the election. They increased rates right before an election in 2007. If the CPI rises above a certain level, history shows they will act.

 

Complicating matters is the US Federal Reserve's egregious policy blunder. The argument that inflation caused by 'cost push' is 'transitory' has been disproved.

 

The RBA has the track record and playbook to contain inflation before it reaches 'eye watering' levels. May's meeting could very well be 'live' for a CPI-dependent rate hike.

 

With a more hawkish RBA, the Australian dollar might trade above long-term norms.

 

Since The 1983 Float, The AUD/USD Has Regressed.

 

AUD/USD Regression Since The Float In 1983

 

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