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News on May 6th, recently, FOF issuance has once again seen a "small hit". Including the previous two cases, there have been three "small hits" of FOF since April. There are both channel boosting factors and market recovery factors. In the first quarter, the number of newly issued FOFs increased by 166.67% month-on-month, and the scale of fundraising increased by 1346.12% month-on-month. As of the end of the first quarter, the total scale of individual pension Y share funds exceeded the "10 billion" mark for the first time. From what the reporter has learned recently, the personal pension business of some financial institutions has operational flaws in terms of handling procedures and information systems, and there have been situations such as "no information on retirees can be found, and retirees cannot withdraw the balance of their personal pension accounts". This means that the quality of work of relevant institutions in exchanging personal pension data needs to be improved.On May 6, market research firm Counterpoint Research estimated that global XR headset screen shipments will increase by 6% year-on-year in 2025, among which AR glasses shipments will increase significantly by 42%, far exceeding VR devices (2.5%), becoming the fastest growing segment.On May 6, the Office of the Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Defense Forces issued a notice announcing the extension of the temporary ceasefire from May 6 to May 31. The notice stated that the Myanmar Defense Forces continued to extend the temporary ceasefire in order to fully promote disaster relief and reconstruction, safeguard national interests, and help establish lasting, real peace and national stability.On May 6, IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong said: "Gold prices started the week with a strong rise as investors returned to safe-haven assets to hedge portfolio volatility caused by tariff concerns reignited by US President Donald Trump. Any dovish signal from the Federal Reserve is likely to provide further support for gold and strengthen its overall upward momentum."On May 6, Goldman Sachs published a research report stating that Standard Chartered Group (02888.HK)s first quarter profit exceeded expectations by 17%; net interest income (NII) was in line with expectations; pre-tax profit was 5% higher than market expectations; credit impairment was 7% lower than market forecasts; pre-tax profit (PBT) was 10% higher than market forecasts; basic return rate (ROTE) reached 16.4%, 300 basis points higher than market forecasts; core tier 1 capital ratio (CET1%) was in line with expectations. Goldman Sachs raised Standard Chartereds earnings per share forecast for fiscal year 2025 by 6%; the forecasts for fiscal years 2026 to 2028 were raised by 2%, 2% and 1% respectively, and the target price for H shares was set at HK$111, with a neutral rating.

The Australian Dollar's Future Could Be Revived by the RBA. Is it Better to Hike or Not to Hike?

Drake Hampton

Apr 02, 2022 09:48

Tips

  • On the back of robust commodities, the Australian dollar is testing previous highs.

  • The RBA may be on track for a May rate hike if CPI surprises to the upside.

  • Central banks intervene when transient inflation becomes entrenched.

 

The Australian Dollar has been bumping up against resistance levels, despite the fact that the Australian economy's basic fundamentals remain robust.

 

The currency is supported by a backdrop of rising commodity prices and a relatively solid national balance sheet.

 

By historical measures, the Australian dollar has depreciated since the float in 1983, while the terms of trade have remained multigenerational highs. This has a beneficial effect on the home economy.

 

Australia has enjoyed extraordinary prosperity since the RBA was authorized with an inflation targeting framework in 1993. While political parties of all stripes would like to claim credit for the positive outcome, the reality is that the central bank's prudent management has been critical in preserving the nation's riches and economic health.

 

The RBA is expected to encounter a hurdle at its May 3rd monetary policy meeting, but it is one they have faced previously. Australian CPI data will be released on April 27th, and all indicators are that it will likely shoot the lights out. Prior to May 21st, a federal election will be place.

 

The market is pricing in a slim possibility of a May hike but a significant probability of the first rate hike in June. The RBA said following its February meeting that it will wait until the first-quarter CPI statistic is released before making a rate decision.

 

The market appears to believe the RBA will postpone its decision until after the election. They increased rates right before an election in 2007. If the CPI rises above a certain level, history shows they will act.

 

Complicating matters is the US Federal Reserve's egregious policy blunder. The argument that inflation caused by 'cost push' is 'transitory' has been disproved.

 

The RBA has the track record and playbook to contain inflation before it reaches 'eye watering' levels. May's meeting could very well be 'live' for a CPI-dependent rate hike.

 

With a more hawkish RBA, the Australian dollar might trade above long-term norms.

 

Since The 1983 Float, The AUD/USD Has Regressed.

 

AUD/USD Regression Since The Float In 1983

 

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