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Angola plans to launch its next round of oil licensing bidding in the fourth quarter to maintain crude oil production above 1 million barrels per day (bpd). This bidding round will be the final under a multi-year strategy launched in 2019 to grant 50 oilfield development rights to Africas third-largest crude producer. "Our goal is to achieve 1 million bpd next year," Minerals, Oil, and Gas Minister Diamantino Azevedo said in a statement on Sunday. "Most of our countrys oilfields have mature wells, and the solution is to find new reservoirs." This round of bidding is part of the governments efforts to attract investment in the oil industry. In July, Angolas daily crude oil production fell below 1 million bpd for the first time since its exit from OPEC in 2023.On September 7, OPEC+ agreed to increase production again in October. Amid weakening global demand, the Saudi-led OPEC group is pressing ahead with a six-month plan to regain market share. This decision will put pressure on oil prices, further confirming that Saudi Arabia has given up on pursuing higher prices and is focused on increasing revenue by restoring as much idle production as possible. Eight OPEC members, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE, said they will increase production by a total of 137,000 barrels per day next month. However, analysts say only Saudi Arabia and the UAE will be able to increase supply because most other members are already close to their production capacity limits. People familiar with the matter said that for Saudi Arabia, the political and economic costs of maintaining production cuts are too high. By quickly restoring production, Riyadh will also be able to assess the production capacity of each member country for possible future renegotiation of quotas.With a September Federal Reserve rate cut all but certain, options traders are widely betting on a stable stock market ahead of Thursdays CPI data. However, this bet could be risky if the data shows rising inflation. The markets rationale for a rate cut is straightforward: US job growth is stagnant and the economy needs stimulus. Fridays weak jobs data reinforced this expectation, prompting investors to fully price in a 25 basis point rate cut from the Fed next week. The markets reaction has been muted: US stocks fell slightly on Friday, and the fear gauge edged up slightly, but remains well below the critical 20 level, where it has mostly remained since June. Looking ahead, options traders are betting on a roughly 0.7% two-way move in the S&P 500 following Thursdays CPI release, below the 1% average realized move over the past year. However, this trade ignores a key risk: what if inflation figures significantly exceed expectations? "Its a very delicate balance right now," said Eric Teal, chief investment officer of Comerica Wealth Management. "Any data thats very positive or very negative could change the market outlook."On September 7, U.S. Treasury Secretary Jeffrey Bessant stated that the United States and Europe are discussing a new round of sanctions and secondary tariffs against Russia, hoping that the "collapse" of the Russian economy will prompt Putin to engage in peace talks with Ukraine. "We are ready to increase pressure on Russia, but we need the cooperation of our European partners," Bessant said. He also stated that President Trump and Vice President Cyril Vance spoke with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Friday, and that von der Leyen subsequently discussed sanctions with Bessant.Israel Airports Authority: The first flight from Ramon Airport to Tel Aviv will take off soon.

The Japanese Yen at the Pump Again, as PMI Friday commences. Where can I buy USD/JPY?

Larissa Barlow

Apr 02, 2022 09:54

Tips 

  • The Japanese Yen resumed its unbroken downward march.

  • In a rather calm session, APAC equities were mixed.

  • Prior to the US non-farm payrolls, a series of PMIs will be released.

 

The Japanese yen fell more today, but the other G-10 currencies remained relatively stable. It was left to its own devices in the absence of any commentary/jawboning from Bank of Japan (BOJ) officials.

 

Japan's Jibun Bank PMI increased from 54.1 last month to 54.1, while China's Caixin PMI fell short of expectations at 48.1.

 

APAC equities markets remained quiet following a more than 1.5 percent decline in Wall Street's three major indices. Hong Kong and Japan ended slightly down, the Chinese mainland ended slightly higher, and the Australian share market ended flat heading into the weekend.

 

Crude oil appears to be vulnerable, with the WTI futures contract trading below US$ 100 a barrel. Brent is currently trading at roughly US$ 104.50. Gold has been relatively stable, selling about US$ 1,937 an ounce.

 

Government bond yields have increased marginally in Asia, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury note nearing 2.4 percent. The carefully studied 2-10's segment of that curve momentarily dropped into negative territory and remains close to inversion at 0.005 percent.

 

Following European PMIs and the Eurozone's aggregate CPI figure, the US will receive March non-farm payrolls data, with predictions of 490,000 jobs added, according to a Bloomberg survey. Later this week, the US and Canadian PMIs will be issued, followed by the ISM manufacturing survey for the United States.

 

Additionally, a number of ECB and Fed speakers will cross the wires.

Technical Analysis of the USD/JPY

USD/JPY began the week on a strong note, surging to its highest level since 2015.

 

The August 2015 and June 2015 peaks of 125.28 and 125.86, respectively, fell barely shy of the 125.108 record. These levels may continue to act as a barrier.

 

The explosion in volatility can be observed in the breadth of the Bollinger Band based on the 21-day simple moving average (SMA), which expanded considerably throughout the move.

 

It has since returned within the band's confines, initially testing support at the 10-day SMA at 121.317, which held. If tried again, that level may provide support.

 

As expected, all short, medium, and long-term SMAs are pointing upward. A persistent move below the 10-day SMA may provide insight into whether or not that momentum is about to stall.

 

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