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On January 27th, a study by the European Central Bank (ECB) found that a relatively controlled price shock could trigger a large-scale inflationary event if it spreads across closely connected networks of businesses. ECB economists Anton Nakoff and Michel Gascib, a researcher at the Barcelona Centre for International Economic Studies, wrote in an article published on the ECBs website on Tuesday that this is because shocks can have cascading effects through supply chains (the cost of one firms output is the input cost of another firm). They pointed out that when the shock is large, this cascading effect can be disproportionately amplified. Major disruptions (such as a sharp decline in productivity or a sustained surge in global commodity prices) can ripple through the entire economy. This finding helps explain why the eurozones inflation rate climbed above 10% after the Russia-Ukraine conflict caused energy costs to soar. ECB officials underestimated the impact on prices at the time.According to statistics from the Peoples Bank of China, as of the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, 275,000 technology-based SMEs received loan support, with a loan approval rate of 50.2%, 2 percentage points higher than at the end of last year. The outstanding balance of RMB and foreign currency loans to technology-based SMEs reached 3.63 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.8%, 13.6 percentage points higher than the growth rate of all loans. At the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, 265,400 high-tech enterprises received loan support, with a loan approval rate of 57.3%, 0.4 percentage points higher than at the end of last year. The outstanding balance of RMB and foreign currency loans to high-tech enterprises reached 18.61 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, 1.3 percentage points higher than the growth rate of all loans.German Economy Minister: Global uncertainty is high, and the alliances we once trusted are becoming fragile.According to statistics from the Peoples Bank of China, at the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, the outstanding balance of RMB real estate loans was RMB 51.95 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%, and a decrease of RMB 963.6 billion for the whole year. At the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, the outstanding balance of real estate development loans was RMB 13.16 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0%, and a decrease of RMB 357.5 billion for the whole year. The outstanding balance of personal housing loans was RMB 37.01 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, and a decrease of RMB 676.8 billion for the whole year.On January 27th, Deutsche Bank analysts pointed out that with a weakening dollar this year, gold reaching a price target of $6,000 per ounce is achievable. Based on its outperformance over the past two years, gold prices could even reach $6,900 per ounce. Furthermore, regarding silver, the bank believes that even if the gold-silver ratio corrects later, the absolute price of silver is likely to maintain its upward trend.

The S&P 500 index falls to 4520

Larissa Barlow

Apr 02, 2022 10:29

Tips

  • US equities were on track to register their third consecutive day of losses as investors increased their bets on Fed tightening.

  • The S&P 500 was down 0.2 percent at the time of writing at the 4520 range.

 

US markets were on track to post their third consecutive negative day on Friday, as solid US labor market data and an inflationary ISM Manufacturing PMI report heightened the probability of the Fed tightening at a faster pace this year and next. The S&P 500 was last trading in the 4520s, down approximately 0.1 percent on the day, having bounced between lows just above 4500 and highs near 4550. The index is on track to close the week with minor losses of approximately 0.4 percent and a decline of approximately 2.4 percent from Tuesday's highs.

 

The Nasdaq 100 index, which is strongly weighted toward technology and growth stocks, was a slight underperformer, shedding roughly 0.5 percent to fall back into the 14,700s, leaving the index more than 3.0 percent behind prior weekly highs in the 15,200s. However, the index is still on track to end the week in the green. On Friday, technology/growth names declined due to a big increase in US rates, particularly at the short end, following excellent US data, which increases the "opportunity cost" of owning stocks with low current earnings in comparison to their valuation.

 

Stocks with significantly greater current earnings in comparison to current values, or so-called value/cyclical stocks, which account for a larger portion of the Dow, did well on Friday. Indeed, the Dow was trading flat in the 34,600s, just over 2.0 percent below its weekly highs in the 35,300s. The S&P 500 CBOE Volatility Index (or VIX), frequently referred to as Wall Street's "fear gauge," decreased around a half-point to close to its long-term average of around 20.00. This leaves it only about 1.50 above previous lows, indicating that the present equity market is experiencing calmer waters. 

 

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