EUR/USD 1.15532
0.802%
Gold 4673.07
3.593%
Oil 97.395
-4.456%
USD/JPY 158.745
-0.607%
GBP/USD 1.32254
0.319%
GBP/JPY 209.951
-0.286%
Browse More
  • English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
Microsoft (MSFT.O) plunged 23% in the first quarter, leading its technology peers and the Nasdaq index in its worst quarterly performance since the 2008 financial crisis.April 1st - U.S. stocks closed higher on Tuesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.48%, the S&P 500 gained 2.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 3.8%. Nvidia (NVDA.O) surged over 5%, Pinduoduo (PDD.O) climbed 3.8%, Intel (INTC.O) rose 7%, and Tesla (TSLA.O) gained over 4%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed up 2.7%, with NIO (NIO.N) rising 9% and Baidu (BIDU.O) gaining over 4%.On April 1, U.S. District Judge Richard Leon of the District of Columbia ordered the Trump administration to halt the White House banquet hall renovation project on March 31 until congressional authorization is obtained. In his opinion, Leon wrote, "The President of the United States is the steward of the White House, acting as its guardian for the future First Family; however, he is not the owner of the White House." The National Trust for Historic Preservation, a U.S. heritage preservation organization, sued President Trump and several federal agencies on December 12 last year, demanding a halt to the ongoing White House banquet hall renovation project and stating that the project was illegal.On April 1st, oil prices fell as Iran and the United States expressed their willingness to seek a solution to the conflict that has disrupted global energy transport, partially eliminating a long-standing price risk premium in the market. According to a statement from the Iranian presidents office cited by Euronews, the Iranian president stated that Iran is willing to end the war if its demands are met. This comes after the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump told aides he was willing to end the war without reopening the Strait of Hormuz. However, traders remain concerned that the impending solution will not eliminate the numerous disruptions already existing in the global energy system. Shaya Hosseinzadeh, chief investment officer at OnyxPoint Global Management, stated, "Even if this conflict were resolved tomorrow, it would take weeks or even months to restore oil supplies. And price signals do not fully reflect the reality."April 1 – The White House stated on Tuesday that the U.S. military is prepared to thwart any attack by Iran in response to threats made by Irans Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) against U.S. businesses in the Middle East. "The U.S. military has always been and is prepared to deter any attack from Iran, as evidenced by the 90% decrease in the regimes ballistic missile and drone strikes," a White House official said. The IRGC reportedly announced earlier on Tuesday that it would begin operations targeting U.S. businesses in the region starting April 1 in retaliation for attacks against Iran.

EUR/USD Recovers from 50-Day SMA as US NFP Report Is Released

Drake Hampton

Apr 01, 2022 10:17

Discussion Points Regarding the EUR/USD Rate

The EUR/USD is struggling to hold its gains from earlier this week after testing the 50-Day SMA (1.1173), and new data prints from the US may weigh on the currency, as the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is expected to show more improvement in the job market.

 

With the US NFP report on the horizon, the EUR/USD is reversing from its 50-day moving average.

 

EUR/USD falls from a new weekly high (1.1185) as European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Philip Lane calms speculation about a monetary policy shift, stating that "the degree of monetary policy stimulus put in place to address the pre-pandemic challenge of persistent below-target inflation can be gradually normalised towards a more neutral setting."

 

Lane continues, "the calibration of net purchases for the third quarter will be data-dependent and reflect our evolving assessment of the outlook," implying that the Governing Council is not in a hurry to normalize monetary policy, as the board member insists that "any adjustments to our interest rates will be gradual."

 

As a result, diverging monetary policy paths may continue to produce headwinds for EUR/USD as the Federal Reserve plans to implement a series of rate hikes over the coming months, and the NFP report may push the central bank to normalize monetary policy at a faster pace as the economy is expected to add 490K jobs in March.

 

image.png 

 

At the same time, the unemployment rate is expected to fall to 3.7 percent from 3.8 percent during the same period, the lowest reading since February 2020, and this development may force the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to adjust its exit strategy at the next interest rate decision on May 4, as the central bank "expects to begin reducing its holdings of Treasury securities, agency debt, and agency mortgage-backed securities at a coming meeting."

 

Until then, the EUR/USD may struggle to maintain its gain from the yearly low (1.0806) as the FOMC normalizes policy ahead of its European counterpart, while the retail mood tilt appears certain to continue, as traders have been net-long the pair since the middle of February.

 

image.png 

 

The number of traders net-long is 9.25 percent greater than yesterday and 10.55 percent lower than the previous week, while the number of traders net-short is 16.67 percent lower than yesterday and 1.78 percent lower than the previous week. The decrease in net-long interest has reduced crowding behavior, as 63.95 percent of traders were net-long EUR/USD earlier this week, while the decrease in net-short position comes as the currency manages to test the 50-Day SMA (1.1173).

 

Having said that, the EUR/USD may continue to pull back from the moving average as the US NFP report is expected to show further improvement in the labor market, and the advance from the yearly low (1.0806) may turn out to be a correction in the broader trend given the ECB and FOMC's diverging paths.

Suggestion