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On December 8th, Oppenheimer Asset Managements Chief Investment Strategist, John Stoltzfus, predicted that the S&P 500 will rise 18% to 8100 points in 2026, driven by continued double-digit earnings per share growth. The team stated in a report, "Our optimistic outlook for the S&P 500 is based on multiple factors, including the continued resilience of U.S. economic data and the better-than-expected performance of S&P 500 companies for most of this year." Data shows that Stoltzfuss 2026 target is currently the highest among strategists forecasts. The average target for the end of 2026 is currently 7315 points, compared to 6870 points at the close last Friday.Tesla (TSLA.O) shares fell more than 1% in pre-market trading after Morgan Stanley downgraded its rating from overweight to neutral.Morgan Stanley downgraded Ferrari (RACE.N) from Overweight to Hold, and lowered its price target from $520 to $425.On December 8th, analysts at BNY Mellon noted in a report that the market has fully priced in a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month. However, a growing consensus suggests that this will be a hawkish cut, meaning further monetary easing will depend on whether economic data released in March and June 2026 weakens or inflation falls further. The analysts also pointed out that the upcoming change of Fed chair poses a risk, as the market will assess the policy inclinations of the new leadership. Furthermore, the FOMC will release its dot plot, which is likely to confirm recent disagreements within the committee regarding policy stance. Significant divergence in committee members views on the policy direction in 2026 is expected, reflecting the two-way economic risks we anticipate.On December 8th, Netflix (NFLX.O) rose 0.9% in pre-market trading, while Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD.O) fell 1.9%, after Trump stated that the proposed $72 billion sale of Warner Bros. to Netflix "could be problematic." Trump indicated on Sunday that if the acquisition went through, Netflixs market share would be too large, and stated that he would be involved in the decision-making process for the deal. Richard Hunter, head of markets at Interactive Investor, said antitrust concerns are looming over the deal, which could delay its completion to the later end of the 12- to 18-month guidance range given by Warner Discovery and Netflix.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) clings to 98.000 despite a gloomy mood and a need for safe havens

Larissa Barlow

Apr 01, 2022 10:11

  • The US Dollar Index closed March with a 1.65% rise, boosted by a bearish market attitude.

  • A protracted confrontation between Russia and Ukraine could benefit safe-haven assets.

  • Money market futures have priced in a 69.9 percent possibility of the Fed raising interest rates by 50 basis points at its May meeting.

  • DXY Price Prediction: The bias is upward, but a breach below 97.802 might allow for additional losses.

 

The US Dollar Index, usually known as DXY, is a measure of the value of the US dollar versus a basket of six currencies. It closed March positively, with a monthly gain of 1.65 percent, its best since November of 2021. At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index was at 98.348.

 

On the last trading day of March, the market was in a bad mood. Failure to reach a significant settlement in the Russia-Ukraine crisis leaves investors on edge, enhancing the dollar's prospects. Furthermore, money market futures forecast the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 50 basis points at its May and June meetings, keeping the US dollar on the rise.

 

The US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation, increased by 6.4 percent year on year in February, exceeding the previous 6 percent reading. Meanwhile, Core PCE, which excludes volatile items, increased by 5.4 percent year on year, exceeding the 5.5 percent predicted by analysts.

 

Simultaneously, the US Department of Labor released Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 26. The final result was 202K, which was more than the 197K predicted.

DXY Price Prediction: Technical Outlook

The US Dollar Index remains bullish, but is consolidating in the 97.800-99.418 zone. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages (DMAs) remain below the price with an upward slope, indicating that the uptrend is still in place.

 

On the upside, the DXY's first resistance level is 99.000. If the latter is breached, the YTD high of 99.418 will be revealed, followed by the crucial 100.00 barrier.

 

The DXY first support, on the other hand, would be 98.000. A definitive breach would reveal 97.802, which, if broken, would clear the road to 96.000, but it would encounter some obstacles on the way down. The 50-DMA at 97.196 would be the next level of support, followed by 96.000.


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