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March 9th - The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted shipping, forcing Saudi Arabia to divert its crude oil shipments to the Red Sea. Saudi Aramco recently launched a rare tender to supply approximately 4.6 million barrels of crude oil for immediate delivery, encompassing ultra-light, heavy, and its flagship Arab Light grade. This tender in the spot market reflects the pressure it faces. Because it typically sells only through long-term contracts, Saudi Aramco is unable to sell most of its oil through conventional channels and is instead transporting a record volume of crude to Yanbu port on the Red Sea via pipeline. Bloomberg vessel tracking data shows that its western terminal shipments have surged to approximately 2.3 million barrels per day this month, about 50% higher than any month since the end of 2016. Traders say the prices in these tenders represent a premium over the official selling prices for their respective grades in March. These official prices were set a month ago, well before the current Middle East conflict began.March 9th - According to foreign media reports, Saudi Aramco has provided spot crude oil supplies through a series of rare tenders due to the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz forcing cargoes to be diverted via the Red Sea. According to informed traders, the company recently offered approximately 4.6 million barrels of crude oil across three grades – Arab Extra Light, Arab Heavy, and Arab Light.Market news: Saudi Aramco has provided immediate crude oil supplies through a series of rare tenders.March 9th - As the escalating conflict in the Middle East pushes up global oil prices, the South Korean government has taken emergency measures. South Korean President Lee Jae-myung, at an emergency economic meeting on Monday, called for the "swift introduction and bold implementation of a maximum oil price system" to curb excessive price increases. Lee made these remarks as international oil prices approached $120 per barrel, a new high since 2022. Production cuts by Middle Eastern oil-producing countries, the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and the USs threats to escalate the conflict have put continuous pressure on the energy market. South Korea relies almost entirely on energy imports, with approximately 70% of its oil transported through the Strait of Hormuz. This proposed oil price cap mechanism would be the first time South Korea has used such measures in nearly 30 years, aiming to mitigate the impact of geopolitical instability on its domestic energy supply chain.March 9th - According to the Financial Times, G7 finance ministers will hold an emergency meeting on Monday to discuss the possibility of jointly releasing emergency oil reserves under the coordination of the International Energy Agency (IEA). This meeting aims to address the surge in oil prices following the conflict in the Gulf region. Sources familiar with the matter revealed that the G7 finance ministers and IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol will hold a teleconference at 8:30 AM New York time (8:30 PM Beijing time) to discuss the impact of the war with Iran. Sources also indicated that three G7 countries, including the United States, have so far expressed support for the idea. The 32 member countries of the IEA hold strategic reserves as part of a collective emergency system established to address the oil price crisis. One source stated that some US officials believe a joint release of 300 to 400 million barrels of oil reserves would be appropriate, equivalent to 25% to 30% of the total reserves of 1.2 billion barrels.

Daily Fundamental Natural Gas Price Forecast - Tropical Storm Nicole Anticipated to Offset Cold Weather Demand

Alina Haynes

Nov 10, 2022 18:24

 截屏2022-11-08 下午5.39.10_1024x576.png

 

Wednesday's closing price for natural gas futures was lower due to projections for less chilly weather in late November amid persistent volatility. The market reached a one-month high on Monday, but two days later it was hitting a one-week low.

 

In addition to forecasts of milder weather, traders reacted to a severe tropical storm approaching the Southeast. It is anticipated to induce power interruptions and, as a result, reduce demand across a wide region.

 

You should only trade with capital that you can afford to lose while trading derivatives. The trading of derivatives may not be suitable for all investors; thus, you should ensure that you fully comprehend the risks involved and, if necessary, seek independent counsel. Before entering into a transaction with us, a Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) can be received through this website or upon request from our offices and should be reviewed. Raw Spread accounts offer spreads beginning at 0 pips and commissions of $3.50 every 100k traded. Spreads on standard accounts begin at 1 pip with no additional commission fees. CFD index spreads begin at 0.4 points. This information is not intended for inhabitants of any country or jurisdiction where distribution or use would violate local law or regulation.

 

Additionally, traders are preparing for another increase in fat storage on Thursday and the delayed restoration of a crucial export facility.

 

The December natural gas price finished at $5.865, down $0.273 or 4.45%, on Wednesday. The United States Natural Gas Fund ETF (UNG) finished at $19.16, a decrease of $1.04, or -5.15 percent.

 

"Imminent cold fronts and flat output this week at 99 Bcf/d benefited bulls," NatGasWeather reported, "with forecasts Wednesday indicating a significant move toward wintry weather beginning this weekend and extending through the current trading week."

 

On paper, this prognosis looks optimistic, but tropical storm Nicole is interfering. Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) said that the storm's winds are strong enough to prompt emergency declarations and power outage forecasts and to significantly reduce near-term gas demand through the current trading week.

 

The price of natural gas may have bottomed out at $5.345.00 on October 24, but the present technical picture shows that it may need to create a stronger support base before going upward.

 

It will require a catalyst to establish the support base. Strong heating demand and increased demand from liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities are two such catalysts.

 

Wednesday, the restoration to service of the Freeport LNG export facility in Texas, originally scheduled for this month, remained uncertain. NGI reported that the Texas LNG export facility had yet to establish the status of required regulatory clearances for reopening after a lengthy outage dating back to a June fire.

 

When it does reopen, Freeport could withdraw approximately 2.0 Bcf/d of domestic natural gas to meet export demand. Samantha Dart, an analyst at Goldman Sachs, stated that if this doesn't occur this month, U.S. demand will be less than anticipated and supply could balloon more in the near future, resulting in an increase in price pressure.

 

With Thursday's inventory report, traders are anticipating another robust build. NGI forecasts a buildup of 68 Bcf. The projection compared to a five-year average of 20 Bcf of production. In the same week of 2021, EIA reported a rise of 15 Bcf.


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