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On August 2, Russias First Deputy Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Konstantin Polyansky, stated at a Security Council meeting that UN staff were unwilling to take seriously the Ukrainian militarys attack on Russian civilian facilities, which undermined the UNs authority. He said: "In this case, the relevant staff of the UN Secretariat acted with extreme hypocrisy, feigning ignorance and evading responsibility by claiming they could not verify the authenticity of the information about Ukrainian crimes. All of this clearly undermined the authority of our global organization."On August 2nd, a full year since the Bank of England began its interest rate-cutting cycle, despite four consecutive rate cuts and the likelihood of further cuts, British households continue to face the highest borrowing costs in a generation. Analysis of Bank of England savings and mortgage data shows that Britons are spending £11 billion (US$14.5 billion) less annually than in July of last year. This loss stems primarily from two factors: First, the rate cuts have hit savers hard, significantly reducing the returns on their savings. Second, many homeowners have yet to benefit from the rate cuts, as they are still waiting for mortgages locked in during periods of high interest rates to expire. Edward Allenby, an economist at Oxford Economics, said: "Against the backdrop of slowing real wage growth and tighter fiscal policy, the lagged impact of past rate hikes on mortgage holders will continue to dampen consumption. The Bank of Englands rate-cutting cycle is unlikely to provide a significant boost to business investment and consumer spending over the next few years."DeepBlue Auto: Global deliveries of 27,169 vehicles in July, a year-on-year increase of 62%.On August 2, CNN reported that the United States plans to conduct the first large-scale test of its Golden Dome missile defense system before the 2028 presidential election, allowing the current administration to promote it as a political achievement during the campaign. The report indicated that the test is tentatively scheduled for the fourth quarter of 2028. An unnamed US Department of Defense official stated that this timeline indicates that Republicans want to have a demonstration to show during the November election. He also noted that completing the systems test preparations within such a tight timeframe is an "extremely challenging task," especially given the high technical complexity of deploying a new missile interceptor system. This test may only be the first phase of the Golden Dome project, and full deployment will take much longer.YouGov poll: Most Americans believe tariffs hurt American consumers; only 22% blame foreign manufacturers.

Oil Price Daily Fundamental Forecast – Pressured by China Covid Restraints as Traders Await CPI Data Direction

Alina Haynes

Nov 10, 2022 18:17

 截屏2022-11-08 下午5.38.29_1024x576.png

 

U.S. West Texas Intermediate and international benchmark Brent crude oil futures are dipping lower on Thursday as traders anticipate U.S. inflation data that may provide hints as to the path of Federal Reserve policy.

 

Specifically, the data may tell whether the central bank can easily moderate the rate of its rate hikes or if it must continue to aggressively boost rates for a longer period of time.

 

You should only trade with capital that you can afford to lose while trading derivatives. The trading of derivatives may not be suitable for all investors; thus, you should ensure that you fully comprehend the risks involved and, if necessary, seek independent counsel. Before entering into a transaction with us, a Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) can be received through this website or upon request from our offices and should be reviewed. Raw Spread accounts offer spreads beginning at 0 pips and commissions of $3.50 every 100k traded. Spreads on standard accounts begin at 1 pip with no additional commission fees. CFD index spreads begin at 0.4 points. This information is not intended for inhabitants of any country or jurisdiction where distribution or use would violate local law or regulation.

 

Increasing interest rates to slow the economy is crucial for crude oil merchants since it will reduce demand, especially if it causes a recession.

 

December WTI crude oil futures are trading at $85.26, down $0.57 or 0.66 percent, while January Brent crude oil futures are at $92.23, down $0.42 or 0.46 percent. Wednesday's closing price for the United States Oil Fund ETF (USO) was $71.67, down $2.80 or -3.76%.

 

Prior to a week ago, crude oil prices were soaring due to unconfirmed allegations that China was about to announce that it will begin easing its severe COVID limitations in early 2023. This narrative was put to rest over the weekend when officials said that they would continue to enforce strict restrictions.

 

This news may have pushed the market upward this week, but reports of growing COVID infections in parts of China and further restrictions to curb the spread of the virus are driving the market drastically lower.

 

According to Reuters, the manufacturing hub of Guangzhou, a city of 19 million people, reported more than 2,000 new cases on Nov. 9, the third consecutive day above that number, in the city's largest outbreak to date. In addition, millions of residents were instructed to undergo COVID-19 testing on Wednesday, and a municipal area was quarantined, as the number of local cases in China reached its highest level since April 30.

 

If today's U.S. consumer price index (CPI) statistics, scheduled for release at 13:30 GMT, come in higher than anticipated, the market could take a pessimistic tone. Ahead of the data, market participants anticipate yearly readings of 7.9% for headline inflation and 6.5% for core inflation.

 

Meeting or exceeding expectations might reduce the pressure on the Fed to hike interest rates rapidly in December. A hot reading, on the other hand, could push the Fed to continue cutting interest rates for an extended length of time. This is negative for crude oil.

 

In addition to demand concerns, a surge in U.S. crude stockpiles is also dragging on prices, but not as much as gasoline and distillate stockpiles have decreased. In addition, the market is still supported by the OPEC+ production cutbacks and the forthcoming Russian oil embargo by the European Union.

 

I do not consider the price movement to be bearish. I believe that speculative bulls are withdrawing the premium they placed on the market last week when they speculated that China will reduce its COVID restrictions.

 

Tight inventories are likely to tighten in the near future, but traders must first discover value before they can cease selling. The crucial region to monitor for WTI futures is between $84.72 and $82.59.


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