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Futures News, October 30th: Crude oil prices improved, and news in the fuel oil market improved slightly. However, gasoline and diesel shipments remained sluggish, downstream demand was weak, and traders mainly purchased small orders to meet immediate needs. Refinery shipments were flat, and the market is expected to remain stable with a narrow range today.Samsung Electronics shares rose more than 3%.Samsung Electronics: The Taylor plant in the United States will begin operation in 2026.Samsung Electronics: The semiconductor market is expected to remain strong due to continued investment momentum in artificial intelligence in the fourth quarter.On October 30th, a research report from CICC stated that under the "natural scenario," their calculations indicate the Federal Reserve still has room for three more rate cuts in this round, corresponding to long-term interest rates of 3.8% to 4.0%. Currently, the difference between the US real interest rate and the natural interest rate is 0.8%. Three more rate cuts of 25 basis points each would bring financing costs and investment returns "even," corresponding to a nominal neutral interest rate of 3.5%. Assuming a term premium of 30-50 basis points, this corresponds to a 10-year US Treasury yield of 3.8% to 4.0%. The short-term rate cut path will depend more on the government shutdown and data, such as when the shutdown will be resolved to release new employment data. The subsequent path will also be influenced by inflation trends. In contrast, the new Fed chairman and the Feds independence are the biggest variables in the rate cut path next year, potentially increasing policy uncertainty after the second quarter of 2026.

Before the US PMI is released, the gold price is expected to rise beyond $1,740 per ounce

Daniel Rogers

Aug 23, 2022 14:48

 截屏2022-08-22 下午5.31.01_1024x576.png

 

On the back of conflicting forecasts for US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data, the gold price (XAU/USD) is trying to break above $1,740.00. A new monthly low of $1,727.85 was recorded for the precious metal on Monday, but it has since rallied strongly. Given the lack of impetus in the upward trend, the gold price is likely to stay volatile. However, a pullback may be less profitable.

 

The consensus for the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is 51.5, which is down from the prior reading of 52.2. When compared to its previous reading of 47.3, the Services PMI has room to grow.

 

The yellow metal has been supported by the disappointing early estimates of US Durable Goods Orders. From a previous release of 2%, the market expects the economic figures to sharply decrease to 0.5%. It's important to note that the most recent reading showed no change in underlying pricing pressures, which stood at 5.9%. So, we expect to see little change, if any, in the Durable Goods Orders numbers. Unfortunately, a precipitous drop in economic statistics portends a precipitous drop in demand.

 

The other thing that will be in the spotlight is Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell's remarks from the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. US economic conditions and Fed Powell's direction on inflationary pressures and interest rates will be determined by him.

 

Gold prices on an hourly scale are looking to continue their recovery after breaking above the $1,729.44 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (set from the low of $1,680.91 on July 21 to the high of $1,807.93 on August 10). Gold has been testing the resistance of the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $1,738.00; a sustained move above this level would signal a change in trend toward the bullish side.

 

Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (14), which had been negative in the 20.00-40.00 range, has moved into the bullish 40.00-60.00 zone, indicating that gold prices are currently not bearish.

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