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On January 15th, the Ministry of Finance issued a notice revising the "Management Measures for Key Ecological Protection, Restoration and Governance Funds," clarifying the financial support policies for integrated protection and restoration projects of mountains, rivers, forests, fields, lakes, grasslands, and deserts, as well as ecological restoration projects of historically abandoned mines during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. The revision aims to standardize the use and management of funds and promote ecosystem protection and restoration. Eligible key ecological protection, restoration and governance projects will have a three-year implementation period. Regarding central government subsidies, support for integrated protection and restoration projects of mountains, rivers, forests, fields, lakes, grasslands, and deserts (also known as the "Mountain and Water Project") has been increased, raising the central government subsidy ratio. Projects within a province will receive a maximum subsidy of 75%, not exceeding 2 billion yuan. For the first time, cross-provincial joint applications for projects are explicitly supported, with cross-provincial projects receiving a maximum subsidy of 80%, not exceeding 2.5 billion yuan.On January 15th, Capital Economics analyst Marcel Tiliant pointed out that the upcoming Japanese general election is unlikely to lead to a significant easing of fiscal policy. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichis cabinet has the highest approval rating since the early days of Shinzo Abes administration, and the ruling coalition is expected to almost certainly extend its majority. However, he questions whether this will necessarily lead to a more accommodative fiscal policy. He stated that the massive supplementary budget passed last year to reduce gasoline surcharges and electricity prices has weakened the case for further fiscal expansion. Furthermore, Japan already plans to increase spending in its regular budget for fiscal year 2026. Any additional fiscal easing would require another supplementary budget, which Japan typically only uses in response to severe natural disasters or major economic turmoil.According to foreign media reports on January 15th, data released by the Petroleum Institute of Japan (PAJ) shows that as of the week ending January 10th, Japans commercial crude oil inventories were 9.9858 million kiloliters, a decrease of 367,647 kiloliters from the previous weeks 10.3534 million kiloliters. Japans commercial gasoline inventories were 1.6824 million kiloliters, a decrease of 13,325 kiloliters from the previous weeks 1.6958 million kiloliters. Japans commercial kerosene inventories were 2.0711 million kiloliters, a decrease of 156,230 kiloliters from the previous weeks 2.2274 million kiloliters. Japans commercial diesel inventories were 1.6332 million kiloliters, a decrease of 11,847 kiloliters from the previous weeks 1.645 million kiloliters.Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast that aluminum prices will fall as new Indonesian supplies enter the market in late 2026/early 2027.Goldman Sachs: The significant price increase is largely complete, and copper prices are increasingly prone to corrections.

Before the US PMI is released, the gold price is expected to rise beyond $1,740 per ounce

Daniel Rogers

Aug 23, 2022 14:48

 截屏2022-08-22 下午5.31.01_1024x576.png

 

On the back of conflicting forecasts for US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data, the gold price (XAU/USD) is trying to break above $1,740.00. A new monthly low of $1,727.85 was recorded for the precious metal on Monday, but it has since rallied strongly. Given the lack of impetus in the upward trend, the gold price is likely to stay volatile. However, a pullback may be less profitable.

 

The consensus for the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is 51.5, which is down from the prior reading of 52.2. When compared to its previous reading of 47.3, the Services PMI has room to grow.

 

The yellow metal has been supported by the disappointing early estimates of US Durable Goods Orders. From a previous release of 2%, the market expects the economic figures to sharply decrease to 0.5%. It's important to note that the most recent reading showed no change in underlying pricing pressures, which stood at 5.9%. So, we expect to see little change, if any, in the Durable Goods Orders numbers. Unfortunately, a precipitous drop in economic statistics portends a precipitous drop in demand.

 

The other thing that will be in the spotlight is Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell's remarks from the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. US economic conditions and Fed Powell's direction on inflationary pressures and interest rates will be determined by him.

 

Gold prices on an hourly scale are looking to continue their recovery after breaking above the $1,729.44 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (set from the low of $1,680.91 on July 21 to the high of $1,807.93 on August 10). Gold has been testing the resistance of the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $1,738.00; a sustained move above this level would signal a change in trend toward the bullish side.

 

Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (14), which had been negative in the 20.00-40.00 range, has moved into the bullish 40.00-60.00 zone, indicating that gold prices are currently not bearish.

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