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Futures News, April 29th - According to foreign media reports, London Metal Exchange (LME) copper futures fell for the fourth consecutive day on Tuesday, hitting a two-week low, mainly due to a stronger US dollar, continued Middle East conflict boosting oil prices, and raising concerns about inflation and global economic growth. With the Iraq War now in its ninth week and no sign of a peaceful resolution in sight, the industrial metals sector continues to be affected by concerns about economic growth and demand stemming from the Middle East crisis. ING strategists stated that the conflicting parties appear to remain in a stalemate, and the supply of oil and other goods through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely restricted. This uncertainty puts pressure on the demand outlook for copper, which is dependent on economic growth. The market is focused on comments from central bank policymakers regarding inflationary pressures, with the Federal Reserve expected to maintain interest rates unchanged.According to foreign media reports on April 29th, American drivers are feeling an increasingly heavy "pain of refueling." Data from the American Automobile Association (AAA) on Tuesday (28th) shows that the average price of regular gasoline across the United States has risen to its highest level in nearly four years. Since the US-Israel attacks on Iran at the end of February, gasoline prices have risen by more than 40%. Data shows that the average price of gasoline across the US on Tuesday was close to $4.18 per gallon, up 11 cents so far this month; and up $1.19 per gallon since the end of February. More worryingly, there is still room for further price increases—last week, Brent crude futures rose by about 16% and US WTI crude rose by nearly 13% as diplomatic efforts to end the war with Iran stalled and supply concerns intensified. GasBuddy analysts pointed out that refinery maintenance and scheduled upkeep in the Great Lakes region will keep consumers in the region facing persistently high gasoline prices.The UKs National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) has lowered its 2026 UK economic growth forecast from 1.4% to 0.9% based on a moderate scenario.The UKs National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) predicts that, under a moderate scenario, the Bank of Englands interest rate will be raised to 4%.The UKs National Institute of Economic and Social Research predicts that the UK economy will grow by only 0.5% under an "unfavorable" Middle East scenario.

Before the US PMI is released, the gold price is expected to rise beyond $1,740 per ounce

Daniel Rogers

Aug 23, 2022 14:48

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On the back of conflicting forecasts for US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data, the gold price (XAU/USD) is trying to break above $1,740.00. A new monthly low of $1,727.85 was recorded for the precious metal on Monday, but it has since rallied strongly. Given the lack of impetus in the upward trend, the gold price is likely to stay volatile. However, a pullback may be less profitable.

 

The consensus for the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is 51.5, which is down from the prior reading of 52.2. When compared to its previous reading of 47.3, the Services PMI has room to grow.

 

The yellow metal has been supported by the disappointing early estimates of US Durable Goods Orders. From a previous release of 2%, the market expects the economic figures to sharply decrease to 0.5%. It's important to note that the most recent reading showed no change in underlying pricing pressures, which stood at 5.9%. So, we expect to see little change, if any, in the Durable Goods Orders numbers. Unfortunately, a precipitous drop in economic statistics portends a precipitous drop in demand.

 

The other thing that will be in the spotlight is Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell's remarks from the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. US economic conditions and Fed Powell's direction on inflationary pressures and interest rates will be determined by him.

 

Gold prices on an hourly scale are looking to continue their recovery after breaking above the $1,729.44 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (set from the low of $1,680.91 on July 21 to the high of $1,807.93 on August 10). Gold has been testing the resistance of the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $1,738.00; a sustained move above this level would signal a change in trend toward the bullish side.

 

Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (14), which had been negative in the 20.00-40.00 range, has moved into the bullish 40.00-60.00 zone, indicating that gold prices are currently not bearish.

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