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Moodys expects Nvidias (NVDA.O) balanced capital allocation policy to support its "exceptionally strong net cash position and credit metrics."Moodys affirmed Nvidias (NVDA.O) Aa1 rating with a positive outlook.On August 19th, Kenji Koshimizu, co-head of Mizuhos global markets division, stated that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) may raise interest rates again as early as September, potentially increasing the frequency of policy adjustments from approximately once every six months to once every three months. Koshimizu noted that the weak yen and inflationary pressures are pushing the BOJ to accelerate its actions, and he does not rule out two rate hikes before the end of the year, bringing the policy rate to 1.5%. The market currently anticipates a 78% probability of a rate hike by the BOJ on September 18th. He stated that Mizuho will continue its conservative Japanese government bond investment strategy, focusing only on inflation-linked bonds and short-term government bonds. Although the 10-year JGB yield has risen to a 30-year high, it remains below Japans nominal economic growth rate of approximately 4%. Koshimizu believes that global structural changes and investment growth may further push up Japans neutral interest rate, while inflation risks remain skewed to the upside. Regarding the yen, he stated that the joint intervention by the US and Japan reflects both sides desire to prevent further yen depreciation, but the yens weakness is partly due to Japans loose monetary policy. He anticipates that the Japanese economy is undergoing a significant transformation in decades, and while the Japanese stock market remains attractive, financial market volatility may intensify.According to relevant documents, Brazilian energy company Cosan has formally notified the New York Stock Exchange of its intention to delist its American Depositary Receipts (ADS).August 19th - Bond traders are once again adjusting their strategies. After a series of data suggested that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates for the remainder of the year, options market bets are attempting to hedge against the risk of the Fed turning to rate cuts in 2027. This dovish bet contradicts recent movements in the U.S. Treasury market: long-term bond yields have risen to multi-year highs because a Fed wait-and-see approach would allow inflation to remain above target for a longer period. Options traders, whose policy path is closely tied to the Feds, are turning their attention to signs of a weakening U.S. economy, believing this could trigger a market reversal. This move emerged after data released last week showed that inflation and consumer demand slowed in July, cooling market expectations for a rate hike at the Feds September meeting. Options market participants subsequently began adjusting their positions, reducing the magnitude of rate hikes priced in for the coming months in the swap market. Some options are even considering hedging against a potential rate cut by the middle of next year. "The fear of rate hikes has eased," said Jeff Shul, head of interest rates at Constitution Capital, noting that recent positions betting on this outcome are being liquidated.

Before the US PMI is released, the gold price is expected to rise beyond $1,740 per ounce

Daniel Rogers

Aug 23, 2022 14:48

 截屏2022-08-22 下午5.31.01_1024x576.png

 

On the back of conflicting forecasts for US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data, the gold price (XAU/USD) is trying to break above $1,740.00. A new monthly low of $1,727.85 was recorded for the precious metal on Monday, but it has since rallied strongly. Given the lack of impetus in the upward trend, the gold price is likely to stay volatile. However, a pullback may be less profitable.

 

The consensus for the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is 51.5, which is down from the prior reading of 52.2. When compared to its previous reading of 47.3, the Services PMI has room to grow.

 

The yellow metal has been supported by the disappointing early estimates of US Durable Goods Orders. From a previous release of 2%, the market expects the economic figures to sharply decrease to 0.5%. It's important to note that the most recent reading showed no change in underlying pricing pressures, which stood at 5.9%. So, we expect to see little change, if any, in the Durable Goods Orders numbers. Unfortunately, a precipitous drop in economic statistics portends a precipitous drop in demand.

 

The other thing that will be in the spotlight is Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell's remarks from the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. US economic conditions and Fed Powell's direction on inflationary pressures and interest rates will be determined by him.

 

Gold prices on an hourly scale are looking to continue their recovery after breaking above the $1,729.44 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (set from the low of $1,680.91 on July 21 to the high of $1,807.93 on August 10). Gold has been testing the resistance of the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $1,738.00; a sustained move above this level would signal a change in trend toward the bullish side.

 

Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (14), which had been negative in the 20.00-40.00 range, has moved into the bullish 40.00-60.00 zone, indicating that gold prices are currently not bearish.

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