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According to Yonhap News Agency, South Korea will implement zero tariffs on liquefied natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas in order to combat inflation.On June 18th, Chaos Tiancheng Futures reported that the Federal Reserves June interest rate meeting caused significant market volatility. The overall meeting and statement clearly shifted towards a hawkish stance, while Warshs relatively neutral remarks exacerbated market fluctuations. Subsequently, US President Trump stated that the Fed would maintain interest rates unchanged, which was fine. (Regarding the possibility of a Fed rate hike) This could happen. After the meeting, market expectations for a rate hike rose, and the US dollar index surged, surpassing the 100 mark. Currently, for precious metals, although the meeting showed a hawkish bias and rate hike expectations rose, the market was relatively prepared and anticipated. The decline was completed in the short term, but this mornings news of the US-Iran memorandum led to a recovery of half of the decline, effectively ending short-term trading opportunities. Further developments still require observation of the driving forces, most importantly geopolitical tensions. Given the current increased market volatility, there are no clear trend conditions. (This content and opinion are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.)Markets remain skeptical about the prospects of a US-Iran peace agreement, but concerns about oversupply are limiting oil prices. A chart provides a quick overview of the pre-market crude oil prices converted between domestic and international markets.The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged but predicted a rate hike this year. A chart provides a quick overview of the pre-market gold and silver prices, converted between domestic and international markets.On June 18th, a research report from CICC stated that the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates unchanged at its June meeting, in line with market expectations. The biggest change at this meeting was the reform. The monetary policy statement was significantly simplified, and forward guidance was removed, aiming to reduce the Feds intervention in the market. More importantly, five working groups were established: communication, balance sheet, data, productivity and employment, and an inflation framework. This reshapes the policy framework from fundamental principles, laying the institutional groundwork for Warshs conservative and market-oriented policy approach. The balance sheet assessment was ranked second, indicating that balance sheet reduction remains a core inclination. Regarding policy this year, Warsh did not provide clear guidance, but the dot plot clearly turned hawkish: the average forecast predicts one rate hike this year, reflecting that with stable employment and high inflation, combating inflation has become the focus. We maintain our judgment that the Fed will neither raise nor lower interest rates this year, but note the increased risk of a rate hike next year. If the US economy continues to strengthen and achieve a full recovery driven by AI capital expenditure, the possibility of monetary tightening cannot be ruled out.

Before the US PMI is released, the gold price is expected to rise beyond $1,740 per ounce

Daniel Rogers

Aug 23, 2022 14:48

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On the back of conflicting forecasts for US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data, the gold price (XAU/USD) is trying to break above $1,740.00. A new monthly low of $1,727.85 was recorded for the precious metal on Monday, but it has since rallied strongly. Given the lack of impetus in the upward trend, the gold price is likely to stay volatile. However, a pullback may be less profitable.

 

The consensus for the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is 51.5, which is down from the prior reading of 52.2. When compared to its previous reading of 47.3, the Services PMI has room to grow.

 

The yellow metal has been supported by the disappointing early estimates of US Durable Goods Orders. From a previous release of 2%, the market expects the economic figures to sharply decrease to 0.5%. It's important to note that the most recent reading showed no change in underlying pricing pressures, which stood at 5.9%. So, we expect to see little change, if any, in the Durable Goods Orders numbers. Unfortunately, a precipitous drop in economic statistics portends a precipitous drop in demand.

 

The other thing that will be in the spotlight is Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell's remarks from the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. US economic conditions and Fed Powell's direction on inflationary pressures and interest rates will be determined by him.

 

Gold prices on an hourly scale are looking to continue their recovery after breaking above the $1,729.44 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (set from the low of $1,680.91 on July 21 to the high of $1,807.93 on August 10). Gold has been testing the resistance of the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $1,738.00; a sustained move above this level would signal a change in trend toward the bullish side.

 

Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (14), which had been negative in the 20.00-40.00 range, has moved into the bullish 40.00-60.00 zone, indicating that gold prices are currently not bearish.

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