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February 19th - According to a Reuters survey, most economists predict the Bank of Japan (BOJ) may raise its key interest rate to 1% by the end of June. Some economists expect the central bank to act as early as April due to heightened concerns about rising inflation and a weak yen. In the survey conducted from February 10th to 18th, all 76 economists said the BOJ would keep interest rates unchanged at its March meeting. However, 58% of them expect the policy rate to reach 1% by the end of June, an increase from slightly over one-third in January. Of the 44 economists who specifically indicated the month of the next rate hike, 36% chose June, 20% chose April, and 34% chose July. Kento Minami, senior economist at Daiwa Securities, said the BOJ will continue to push for further rate hikes at a relatively rapid pace, taking into account the upside risks to inflation from expansionary fiscal policy and the impact of yen depreciation. Meanwhile, to curb further yen depreciation, two-thirds of the 29 respondents said they expect the authorities to intervene in the foreign exchange market again. Of these, 40% believed that the 160 mark was the most likely point to trigger intervention.On February 19th, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, in a media interview, teased the upcoming GTC 2026 conference, explicitly stating that a brand-new chip "unprecedented in the world" would be unveiled at the event. Currently, the specific model of the new product has not been disclosed, but it is widely speculated that it will likely come from two major chip series: one is a derivative of the Rubin series; the other is the next-generation Feynman series chip, which is described as a "revolutionary" product.New York silver futures rose above $78 per ounce, up 0.52% on the day.According to a Reuters poll, 58% of economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise its key interest rate to 1% by the end of June, compared to 36% in the January survey.According to a Reuters poll, all 76 economists expect the Bank of Japan to keep its key interest rate unchanged until March.

Before the US PMI is released, the gold price is expected to rise beyond $1,740 per ounce

Daniel Rogers

Aug 23, 2022 14:48

 截屏2022-08-22 下午5.31.01_1024x576.png

 

On the back of conflicting forecasts for US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data, the gold price (XAU/USD) is trying to break above $1,740.00. A new monthly low of $1,727.85 was recorded for the precious metal on Monday, but it has since rallied strongly. Given the lack of impetus in the upward trend, the gold price is likely to stay volatile. However, a pullback may be less profitable.

 

The consensus for the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is 51.5, which is down from the prior reading of 52.2. When compared to its previous reading of 47.3, the Services PMI has room to grow.

 

The yellow metal has been supported by the disappointing early estimates of US Durable Goods Orders. From a previous release of 2%, the market expects the economic figures to sharply decrease to 0.5%. It's important to note that the most recent reading showed no change in underlying pricing pressures, which stood at 5.9%. So, we expect to see little change, if any, in the Durable Goods Orders numbers. Unfortunately, a precipitous drop in economic statistics portends a precipitous drop in demand.

 

The other thing that will be in the spotlight is Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell's remarks from the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. US economic conditions and Fed Powell's direction on inflationary pressures and interest rates will be determined by him.

 

Gold prices on an hourly scale are looking to continue their recovery after breaking above the $1,729.44 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (set from the low of $1,680.91 on July 21 to the high of $1,807.93 on August 10). Gold has been testing the resistance of the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $1,738.00; a sustained move above this level would signal a change in trend toward the bullish side.

 

Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (14), which had been negative in the 20.00-40.00 range, has moved into the bullish 40.00-60.00 zone, indicating that gold prices are currently not bearish.

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