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On August 28th, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf posted a sarcastic remark on social media, criticizing US Treasury Secretary John Bessenter and citing a New York Times report that Irans creditworthiness in the bond market is under pressure. The post stemmed from Bessenters previous criticism of the Iranian government on social media. He stated that while Iranians struggle to afford even basic necessities, the "corrupt Iranian regime is squandering huge sums of money overseas," and that it should spend those billions on its own people instead of channeling them to so-called "terrorist proxies." Ghalibaf responded with almost identical statements: instead of investing heavily in Israel, a "terrorist proxy," and the approximately 750 US military bases worldwide, this "declining empire" could certainly use its money on its own people. "But wait, that might be too reasonable for this regime," he added. He then directly addressed Bessenter: "Scott, man, your credibility is in jeopardy. Do something worthwhile." The post also included a link to the New York Times report. According to the report, Bessenter attempted to lower yields through measures such as expanding long-term US Treasury bond repurchase agreements, but the market response was lukewarm. With US debt already reaching $40 trillion and the situation in Iran exacerbating inflationary pressures, its ability to "tame" the bond market and its personal credit are facing increasing challenges.Conflict Situation: 1. The Israeli military claims to have shot down a Hezbollah drone. 2. The Israeli military decides to expand its troop deployment in the West Bank. 3. Sources: Israel launched an attack near the outskirts of Damascus, the Syrian capital. 4. Rezaei: If the US again "disrupts" Iran during its meeting with the Qatari Foreign Minister, Iran will strike the US military and its economic interests. Strait of Hormuz: 1. Iranian sources: Consultations on the details of the Strait of Hormuz agreement with Oman are still ongoing. 2. Qatar and Iran discussed an agreement to implement a "joint project" to clear mines from the Strait of Hormuz. 3. Rezaei: The mediators have asked Iran to propose conditions for opening the Strait of Hormuz, and Tehran is preparing a list of conditions. 4. Rezaei: The US must take concrete steps to meet Irans conditions in order to reach an agreement before Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz. Peace Negotiations: 1. According to the Wall Street Journal: Sources familiar with the matter revealed that the Trump administration has repeatedly indicated to the mediators that it has no intention of re-accepting the terms of the memorandum of understanding reached with Iran in June of this year. 2. The White House: (Regarding Iran) There are currently no negotiations; all options are under consideration. Reiterates the US focus on economic isolation of Iran; the naval blockade remains in effect. Other matters: 1. Iran denies plans to assassinate Trumps youngest son. 2. British media: Israel considers expelling British officials from the Gaza Reconciliation Center. 3. Iranian President calls for strengthened economic cooperation among Muslim countries. 4. According to Saudi Arabias Al Arabiya TV: A senior Iranian official stated that due to the US naval blockade, Iran is unable to import enough fuel to compensate for insufficient domestic production. 5. Irans Oil Minister stated that despite reductions, Irans offshore oil sales and deliveries have not stopped. 6. Iranian officials inspect oil infrastructure on Kharg Island. 7. The Speaker of the Iranian Parliament met with the Qatari Prime Minister to exchange views on easing regional tensions. 8. Iranian officials: There is no shortage of goods; the main problem is rising prices. 9. According to Kuwait News Agency (KUNA): Kuwait and Pakistan sign a defense agreement. 10. The US Department of Justice plans to reopen arrest trials to seize Iranian oil tankers.On August 28th, top Canadian economists told the countrys finance minister that the damage from the escalating trade war with the United States should be manageable, potentially bolstering Prime Minister Carneys confidence in withdrawing from negotiations. The finance minister reportedly convened a closed-door meeting in Toronto with chief economists, including those representing several of Canadas largest banks, to discuss the economic outlook following the breakdown of trade talks with the US. While some economists lowered their economic growth forecasts and warned that new US tariffs on hundreds of Canadian goods could hit small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) hardest, some attendees revealed that discussions about the risk of recession were minimal. Instead, participants generally agreed that the Canadian economy was strong enough to withstand the series of tariffs imposed by Trump. Some economists stated that tariffs would indeed cause damage, but the impact would likely be concentrated primarily in the sectors affected by the tariffs.U.S. Treasury officials say bond yields will fall as inflation gradually cools; the Trump administration is committed to lowering long-term bond yields.On August 28, Rezaei, secretary of Irans Supreme National Security Council, stated that Iran has prepared a list of conditions to present to the United States. While temporary passage through a specific channel in the middle of the Strait of Hormuz has been permitted, future passage through the strait will be subject to a memorandum of understanding signed with the United States.

Before the US PMI is released, the gold price is expected to rise beyond $1,740 per ounce

Daniel Rogers

Aug 23, 2022 14:48

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On the back of conflicting forecasts for US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data, the gold price (XAU/USD) is trying to break above $1,740.00. A new monthly low of $1,727.85 was recorded for the precious metal on Monday, but it has since rallied strongly. Given the lack of impetus in the upward trend, the gold price is likely to stay volatile. However, a pullback may be less profitable.

 

The consensus for the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is 51.5, which is down from the prior reading of 52.2. When compared to its previous reading of 47.3, the Services PMI has room to grow.

 

The yellow metal has been supported by the disappointing early estimates of US Durable Goods Orders. From a previous release of 2%, the market expects the economic figures to sharply decrease to 0.5%. It's important to note that the most recent reading showed no change in underlying pricing pressures, which stood at 5.9%. So, we expect to see little change, if any, in the Durable Goods Orders numbers. Unfortunately, a precipitous drop in economic statistics portends a precipitous drop in demand.

 

The other thing that will be in the spotlight is Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell's remarks from the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. US economic conditions and Fed Powell's direction on inflationary pressures and interest rates will be determined by him.

 

Gold prices on an hourly scale are looking to continue their recovery after breaking above the $1,729.44 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (set from the low of $1,680.91 on July 21 to the high of $1,807.93 on August 10). Gold has been testing the resistance of the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $1,738.00; a sustained move above this level would signal a change in trend toward the bullish side.

 

Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (14), which had been negative in the 20.00-40.00 range, has moved into the bullish 40.00-60.00 zone, indicating that gold prices are currently not bearish.