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On January 16th, a research report from CITIC Securities stated that the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) lowered the interest rates of various relending tools by 25 basis points. However, this measure is not a traditional reduction in the reverse repo rate or LPR (Loan Prime Rate), but rather a targeted effort through structural tools. We believe this move will help boost banks lending activity, promote stable credit growth, and alleviate pressure on bank interest rate spreads to some extent. Regarding aggregate policy, the PBOC indicated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rate cuts this year. However, given the continued strong export performance and relatively strong short-term economic momentum, we expect short-term policy easing to be restrained, with the total reduction in the reverse repo rate for the year likely to be around 10 basis points. As for exchange rates, the PBOC continues its policy stance of "maintaining basic stability at a reasonable and balanced level." We believe that in the short term, the policy focus remains on preventing exchange rate overshooting, improving expectation management, and enhancing enterprises exchange rate hedging capabilities, rather than gaining a trade competitive advantage through exchange rate adjustments.On January 16th, CITIC Securities pointed out that new social financing in December 2025 was 2.21 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.65 trillion yuan year-on-year. The decline in social financing year-on-year was in line with expectations, due to government bond issuance leading the way and weakened support from a high base. Corporate lending improved marginally in December, likely mainly due to banks proactive pre-launch project preparations. Retail lending remained sluggish, with expectations for a recovery in demand driven by macroeconomic recovery and coordinated policy efforts. The proactive fiscal policy and relatively loose monetary policy are expected to continue in 2026, with government bonds remaining a significant driver of social financing growth. Credit growth is projected to remain around 7%-8% in 2026, but a genuine improvement in bank fundamentals will require further improvement in credit demand and economic expectations.On January 16, the U.S. Senate passed a bill approving billions of dollars in funding for several federal research agencies, rejecting the Trump administrations proposed budget cuts to research and space programs. Under the bill, the National Science Foundation (NSF) will receive $8.75 billion for research in areas such as quantum information science and artificial intelligence, significantly higher than the White Houses proposed 57% budget cut. Democratic Senator Van Hollen stated that the funding will support nearly 10,000 new research projects, covering more than 250,000 researchers, faculty, and students.European Central Bank Chief Economist Lian: Current interest rate levels set a benchmark for the coming years. If the benchmark scenario holds true, there is no discussion of interest rate changes in the near term.Sources say a bipartisan group of governors will sign an agreement with the Trump administration on Friday to curb rising electricity costs in the PJM region, which covers 13 states. The agreement would cap future electricity auctions for two years and mandate that data centers share more of the financial burden of expansion.

Before the US PMI is released, the gold price is expected to rise beyond $1,740 per ounce

Daniel Rogers

Aug 23, 2022 14:48

 截屏2022-08-22 下午5.31.01_1024x576.png

 

On the back of conflicting forecasts for US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data, the gold price (XAU/USD) is trying to break above $1,740.00. A new monthly low of $1,727.85 was recorded for the precious metal on Monday, but it has since rallied strongly. Given the lack of impetus in the upward trend, the gold price is likely to stay volatile. However, a pullback may be less profitable.

 

The consensus for the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is 51.5, which is down from the prior reading of 52.2. When compared to its previous reading of 47.3, the Services PMI has room to grow.

 

The yellow metal has been supported by the disappointing early estimates of US Durable Goods Orders. From a previous release of 2%, the market expects the economic figures to sharply decrease to 0.5%. It's important to note that the most recent reading showed no change in underlying pricing pressures, which stood at 5.9%. So, we expect to see little change, if any, in the Durable Goods Orders numbers. Unfortunately, a precipitous drop in economic statistics portends a precipitous drop in demand.

 

The other thing that will be in the spotlight is Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell's remarks from the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. US economic conditions and Fed Powell's direction on inflationary pressures and interest rates will be determined by him.

 

Gold prices on an hourly scale are looking to continue their recovery after breaking above the $1,729.44 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (set from the low of $1,680.91 on July 21 to the high of $1,807.93 on August 10). Gold has been testing the resistance of the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $1,738.00; a sustained move above this level would signal a change in trend toward the bullish side.

 

Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (14), which had been negative in the 20.00-40.00 range, has moved into the bullish 40.00-60.00 zone, indicating that gold prices are currently not bearish.

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