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July 21 – Capital Economics strategist Thomas Mathews stated in a report that gold remains valuable as a hedge against a stock market crash. Recently, golds performance has arguably been more of a "risk" asset than a "safe" one, given its recent price volatility, which has mirrored that of the benchmark S&P 500. Golds poor performance amidst Middle East conflicts appears to have weakened its supposed inflation-hedging role. However, the link between gold and real bond yields appears to remain intact, and any decline in real yields is expected to boost gold. If the US economy is hit and prompts the Federal Reserve to significantly cut policy rates, the recent positive correlation between gold and the stock market will not be sustained.On July 21, it was reported that the highest 7-day annualized yield of Tencent Wealth Managements "Current Account +" was 1.4500%, and the lowest was 0.7710%. The highest 7-day annualized yield of WeChat Pays "Lingqian Tong" was 1.0520%, and the lowest was 0.9220%. The highest 7-day annualized yield of Alipays "Yuebao" was 1.0670%, and the lowest was 0.9860%.The ChiNext index rose by more than 1%, with memory chips, semiconductors, and gaming sectors leading the gains.Newly listed stock N Tainuo-U opened 246.82% higher; the prospectus shows that the company is dedicated to blood product replacement therapy.On July 21st, Z.ai announced the completion of a 1GW-level domestically produced AI computing power data center, utilizing entirely domestically produced AI chips. Simultaneously, Z.ai also officially completed its acquisition of XCore Sigma, a domestic AI heterogeneous computing power software company. XCore Sigma originated from the Compiler Laboratory of the Institute of Computing Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, and has long been deeply involved in heterogeneous computing power software stacks and compiler optimization, considered one of the top AI infrastructure teams in China. Sources indicate that these two moves respectively fill two key gaps in computing power supply and release capabilities. The former provides the computing resources needed for large-scale model training, while the latter improves the utilization rate of heterogeneous chips, reduces inference costs, and enhances model deployment efficiency through basic software capabilities such as compilers, runtimes, and inference engines.

Forecast for Gold: XAU/USD to Waver Below $1,740 Amid Steady DXY, Focus on U.S. Durable Goods Orders

Alina Haynes

Aug 23, 2022 14:51

 截屏2022-08-04 下午5.12.51_1024x576.png

 

Gold prices (XAU/USD) are exhibiting erratic behavior within a tight range of $1,733.40-1,740.00 in the early Tokyo session. After a stronger rebound from Monday's low of $1,727.85, volatility has decreased for the precious metal. Gold is stuck due to conflicting reports about how hawkish Fed chair Jerome Powell would sound at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.

 

After reading the Federal Reserve's minutes from last week, it's evident that Fed officials agreed on the limited data showing that inflation pressures were easing and a resolution would take some time. The Fed is also dedicated to maintaining price stability in the economy. And to serve the same, the recent trend of rate increases should continue. A rate increase of 50 basis points (bps) would be best to show deference to expert opinion.

 

However, before that can happen, all eyes will be on Wednesday's report on US Durable Goods Orders. Market analysts predict that economic growth will slow to 0.5% from the previous release of 2%. When the US economy shows no change in the US core Consumer Price Index (CPI), a drop in economic data is not good for the US dollar index (DXY).

 

Gold prices have rallied strongly after reaching the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (placed from July 21 low at $1,680.91 to August 10 high at $1,807.93) at $1,729.44. The 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is located at $1,738.60, and it is acting as a barrier for the precious metal, preventing it from going lower.

 

The Relative Strength Index (14), which predicts future price declines, is currently fluctuating inside a negative 20.00-40.00 zone.