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On January 21st, according to foreign media reports, soybean oil futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed slightly lower on Tuesday, with the benchmark contract down 0.1%, mainly due to the unlocking of oil-meal arbitrage opportunities. The most actively traded March contract traded between 52.41 cents and 53.19 cents. Traders said the unlocking of arbitrage opportunities involving buying soybean oil and selling soybean meal put downward pressure on soybean oil prices. However, the upcoming clarification of US biofuel policy and optimistic market sentiment, coupled with rising international crude oil futures and Malaysian palm oil prices, limited the downside potential for soybean oil prices.Integrated Circuits (Chips): 1. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are expected to reduce NAND flash memory production this year. 2. TSMC is increasing investment in advanced packaging, as Apples A20 chip may adopt WMCM technology. 3. Gree Electric Appliances automotive silicon carbide chips will enter mass production; Dong Mingzhu stated that half of the chips will be supplied to GAC Group in the future. Artificial Intelligence: 1. Musk: Dont let your loved ones use ChatGPT. 2. ServiceNow and OpenAI have reached a three-year cooperation agreement. 3. Nvidia invests $150 million in AI inference startup Baseten. 4. Japans Finance Minister: Plans to invest over $330 billion in AI and chip sectors. 5. ByteDance has reportedly rapidly expanded the scale of its enterprise cloud product, Volcano Engine, in recent months. 6. Dark Side of the Moon is expected to release a significant model technology update soon, possibly the K2-VL multimodal large model that has attracted much attention. 7. The X Engineering team stated that it has open-sourced the new X algorithm, which uses the same Transformer architecture as the Grok model. 8. Anthropic CEO: AI development could lead to a 10% unemployment rate in the future, and the government must take action. Other: 1. Netflix changed its acquisition strategy to an all-cash deal for Warner Bros. Discovery, aiming to suppress Paramounts bidding. 2. Shanghai: Starting February 1st, micro, light, and small drones no longer need to declare their flight in suitable airspace. 3. Paris court ruled that Apple can retain AT&Ts (App Tracking Transparency Framework) functionality. 4. Ministry of Finance: Expanding the scope of loan support for equipment upgrades to include aviation equipment, artificial intelligence, and other fields. 5. CrowdStrike announced the launch of new regional clouds in Saudi Arabia, India, and the UAE to expand secure data sovereignty. 1. All three major U.S. stock indexes closed lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.76% to 48,488.59 points, the S&P 500 fell 2.06% to 6,796.86 points, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.39% to 22,954.32 points. 3M fell nearly 7%, and IBM fell more than 4%, leading the Dows decline. The Wind U.S. Tech Big Seven Index fell 3.06%, with Nvidia and Tesla falling more than 4%. Most Chinese concept stocks fell, with Jinko Solar falling more than 12% and 21Vianet falling more than 10%. The S&P 500 recorded its biggest drop since October. 2. All three major European stock indexes closed lower. The German DAX fell 1.08% to 24,689.67 points, the French CAC40 fell 0.61% to 8,062.58 points, and the UK FTSE 100 fell 0.67% to 10,126.78 points. 3. Most major Asia-Pacific stock indexes closed lower. The Nikkei 225 index fell 1.11% to 52,991.1 points, marking its fourth consecutive day of decline. Escalating tensions between the US and Europe, rising yields on Japanese long-term government bonds, and concerns about fiscal deterioration weighed on the stock market. The South Korean KOSPI index fell 0.39% to 4,885.75 points, ending a 12-day winning streak, with semiconductor and auto stocks declining. US Treasury yields rose across the board: the 2-year yield rose 1.68 basis points to 3.595%, the 3-year yield rose 3.35 basis points to 3.678%, the 5-year yield rose 5.10 basis points to 3.857%, the 10-year yield rose 7.94 basis points to 4.293%, and the 30-year yield rose 8.85 basis points to 4.920%. 5. International precious metals futures generally closed higher. COMEX gold futures rose 1.98% to $4,769.10 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.19% to $94.46 per ounce. 6. The WTI crude oil futures contract closed up 0.15% at $59.52 per barrel; the Brent crude oil futures contract fell 0.06% to $63.9 per barrel. 7. Most London base metals declined. LME copper fell 1.3% to $12,796.5 per tonne, LME zinc fell 1.44% to $3,175 per tonne, LME nickel fell 2.06% to $17,760 per tonne, LME aluminum fell 1.27% to $3,118.5 per tonne, LME tin rose 0.8% to $49,650 per tonne, and LME lead fell 1.58% to $2,028 per tonne.January 21st - Market concerns about a significant increase in Japanese government spending and a resurgence of inflation are causing a break in the traditional correlation between the yen and the dollar and government bond yields, prompting HSBC strategists to change their forecasts for the yens performance in the coming months. HSBC analysts believe there are two catalysts for the current "sudden revaluation" of the yen: first, a substantial rise in Japanese inflation starting in 2022; and second, Sanae Takashis inauguration as president in October. HSBC now predicts the yen will fall to 160 yen to the dollar by mid-year, rather than strengthening to 150 yen as previously expected. Strategists point out that complicating matters is the real possibility that Japanese authorities might intervene in the foreign exchange market to support the yen if it falls below 160. Analysts believe several potential factors could halt the yens recent decline—the most plausible of which (such as a slowdown in the US economy) is beyond the control of Japanese policymakers.Pan American Silver (PAAS.O): Equity silver production is projected to be between 25 million and 27 million ounces in 2026, and equity gold production is projected to be between 700,000 and 750,000 ounces in 2026.

Before the US PMI is released, the gold price is expected to rise beyond $1,740 per ounce

Daniel Rogers

Aug 23, 2022 14:48

 截屏2022-08-22 下午5.31.01_1024x576.png

 

On the back of conflicting forecasts for US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data, the gold price (XAU/USD) is trying to break above $1,740.00. A new monthly low of $1,727.85 was recorded for the precious metal on Monday, but it has since rallied strongly. Given the lack of impetus in the upward trend, the gold price is likely to stay volatile. However, a pullback may be less profitable.

 

The consensus for the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is 51.5, which is down from the prior reading of 52.2. When compared to its previous reading of 47.3, the Services PMI has room to grow.

 

The yellow metal has been supported by the disappointing early estimates of US Durable Goods Orders. From a previous release of 2%, the market expects the economic figures to sharply decrease to 0.5%. It's important to note that the most recent reading showed no change in underlying pricing pressures, which stood at 5.9%. So, we expect to see little change, if any, in the Durable Goods Orders numbers. Unfortunately, a precipitous drop in economic statistics portends a precipitous drop in demand.

 

The other thing that will be in the spotlight is Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell's remarks from the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. US economic conditions and Fed Powell's direction on inflationary pressures and interest rates will be determined by him.

 

Gold prices on an hourly scale are looking to continue their recovery after breaking above the $1,729.44 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (set from the low of $1,680.91 on July 21 to the high of $1,807.93 on August 10). Gold has been testing the resistance of the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $1,738.00; a sustained move above this level would signal a change in trend toward the bullish side.

 

Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (14), which had been negative in the 20.00-40.00 range, has moved into the bullish 40.00-60.00 zone, indicating that gold prices are currently not bearish.