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March 13th - UK GDP grew 0% month-on-month in January, below the 0.2% increase predicted by economists in a Reuters poll and also lower than the 0.1% increase in December. The UK economy failed to grow in January, giving it a weak start to the year, even before the global energy shock triggered by the Middle East wars. In the third and fourth quarters of last year, the UK economy grew by only 0.1% each year, with businesses and households still grappling with high interest rates, the impact of the US trade war, and uncertainty surrounding potential tax increases in the November budget. The surge in oil and gas prices this month poses further risks to the UK economy. Shortly before the outbreak of the war, the Bank of England had predicted 0.3% growth in the first quarter. David Myers, chief economist at the Office for Budget Responsibility, warned this week that if energy prices remain at current levels, inflation could remain around 3% by the end of the year, rather than decline.March 13th Futures News: On March 13th, the Shanghai Futures Exchanges energy and chemical warehouse receipts and changes are as follows: 1. Pulp futures warehouse receipts: 172,232 tons, an increase of 8,834 tons compared to the previous trading day; 2. Pulp futures mill warehouse receipts: 17,000 tons, unchanged compared to the previous trading day; 3. Offset paper futures warehouse receipts: 0 tons, unchanged compared to the previous trading day; 4. Offset paper futures mill warehouse receipts: 4,160 tons, unchanged compared to the previous trading day; 5. Fuel oil futures warehouse receipts: 0 tons, unchanged compared to the previous trading day. The following figures were unchanged from the previous trading day: 6. Petroleum asphalt futures warehouse receipts totaled 33,160 tons, an increase of 8,520 tons compared to the previous trading day; 7. Petroleum asphalt futures factory warehouse receipts totaled 61,780 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 8. Medium-sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts totaled 3,511,000 barrels, unchanged from the previous trading day; 9. Low-sulfur fuel oil futures warehouse receipts totaled 25,620 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 10. Low-sulfur fuel oil futures factory warehouse receipts totaled 0 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day.March 13 - Algerian authorities, having found a glimmer of hope after the energy price surge triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, are now pinning their hopes on a further rise in oil prices driven by the Iran war. The North African nation of 47 million people has long relied on one of Africas largest oil and gas reserves to pay for subsidies. Since being devastated by the 2014 oil price crash, the country has found it increasingly difficult to cover its budget deficit. Oil prices broke through $100 a barrel on March 9, and despite frequent fluctuations since then, prices have risen by more than 50% due to market concerns that the conflict will hinder Middle Eastern supplies. Independent economic and financial analyst Mahfoud Kaoubi stated that rising prices can only be good for the authorities; if oil prices surge further to the $120-$125 range, the OPEC member will be able to achieve budget balance. Currently, Algerias daily production is approximately 977,000 barrels.The UKs seasonally adjusted trade balance with the EU in January was -£10.988 billion, compared to -£11.73 billion in the previous month.As of 3:00 PM Beijing time, spot platinum fell 1.41%, and spot palladium fell 0.76%.

Forecast for Gold: XAU/USD wipes off Fed Minutes-inspired gains, $1,735 in sight

Daniel Rogers

Aug 18, 2022 11:26

 截屏2022-08-16 下午5.33.12_1024x576.png

 

At the outset of Thursday's Asian trading day, the XAU/USD gold price continued to slide to a two-week low of $1,761. The recent inactivity of the precious metal may be related to the absence of significant data or occurrences. However, rising rates and geopolitical uncertainties, in addition to the widespread pessimism surrounding the US economy and Fed movements, have weighed on the XAU/USD exchange rate.

 

The 10-year US Treasury yield jumped to a new monthly high above 2.90%, the highest level in a week, which put pressure on Wall Street benchmarks and helped the US dollar recover from its drop following the release of the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Wednesday's North American trading session closed with gains of 0.18% for the US Dollar Index (DXY), bringing the index up to a level near 106.70.

 

According to the Fed Minutes, the officials were unanimous in their support for the 75 basis point rate hike in August, but they did anticipate a gradual reduction in the rate of future increases. The Minutes also suggested that Fed members were aware of the risk that the central bank could tighten more than was warranted.

 

In other news, July retail sales in the US showed no rise, compared to the 0.1% forecast and the 0.8% previously reported. However, 0.8% was reported for the Retail Sales Control Group, up from 0.6% originally reported and 0.7% previously (updated from 0.8%).

 

High inflation and high employment would certainly impose some pressure on labor and employment, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman remarked recently.

 

Furthermore, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang recently went off the grid when he urged local leaders from six important provinces that account for approximately 40% of the country's economy to strengthen pro-growth policies by publishing an open letter in the Communist Party's flagship newspaper People's Daily. President Xi Jinping and the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the state planner, have previously signaled their willingness to take additional measures to allay recession fears.

 

Next, XAU/USD investors may find distraction in lower-tier US data as they focus on China, central banks, and economic worries while ignoring the rest of the world.

Technical Analysis

XAU/USD bears are aiming for the prior resistance line from April 18, which is now at $1,735 as of press time and would be reached by confirming the rising wedge bearish chart pattern and then trading below the 50-DMA and 21-DMA for an extended period of time.

 

The yearly low for the time being is around $1,680, but a clear breach below $1,735 will not hesitate to retest it.

 

Alternately, the 21-day moving average and the 50-day moving average both have their eyes on the immediate upside of the quote, around $1,765 and $1,776 respectively. The following support comes from the lower line of the aforementioned wedge, which is now at $1,809.


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