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Chart: Speculative Sentiment Index on Friday, June 12, 2026Trump halts strikes against Iran, says peace agreement to be signed "in the coming days," causing international oil prices to plummet. A quick chart shows the pre-market conversion of domestic and international crude oil prices.According to Futures News on June 12, as of 8:30 AM Beijing time, spot platinum rose 0.56% and spot palladium rose 1.50%.June 12 (Futures News) – Since the second quarter, gold prices have continued to decline, and market pessimism has spread. Signals from the options market indicate that some traders are betting that this decline will continue for the next two years. 1. According to ThinkOrSwim and SpotGamma data, approximately $200 million in premiums were traded in the GLD options market on Wednesday, of which $130 million was related to put options. Of the top 10 contracts by trading volume, 8 were put options, and more than half of the put option premiums were traded at or above the ask price, indicating that these contracts were primarily bought. The second most traded option contract was a put contract expiring in June 2028 with a strike price of $240, priced at $11.50 per contract – this is a deep bearish bet, meaning traders expect the GLD ETF (SPDR Gold Trust) to fall by approximately 40% over the next two years. 2. Market participants told Futures Daily that the recent decline in gold prices is not due to the collapse of the long-term bull market foundation, but rather to the concentrated release of short-term macroeconomic negative factors, among which the change in expectations for the Federal Reserves monetary policy is the core negative factor. 3. Lin Zhenlong, senior precious metals analyst at Shanjin Futures, added that the core reason for the more than 20% drop in gold prices since the beginning of the year is a phased shift in market pricing power, rather than a failure of long-term logic. Long-term supporting factors such as central bank gold purchases and de-dollarization remain unchanged, but the short-term trading focus has completely shifted to interest rates. The increase in US Treasury yields and the strengthening of the US dollar have raised the cost of holding gold, triggering a sell-off by bulls. Currently, the impact of real interest rates on gold prices far exceeds traditional supporting factors such as safe-haven assets. In the medium to long term, the supporting logic for a long-term bull market in gold remains solid. However, before a substantial shift in Federal Reserve policy and confirmation that US Treasury yields have peaked, gold is unlikely to start a trend of upward movement and will most likely continue to fluctuate and consolidate at the bottom. (This content and opinion are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.)Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 1.8%, German DAX futures rose 1.7%, and UK FTSE futures rose 0.9%.

Forecast for Gold: XAU/USD wipes off Fed Minutes-inspired gains, $1,735 in sight

Daniel Rogers

Aug 18, 2022 11:26

 截屏2022-08-16 下午5.33.12_1024x576.png

 

At the outset of Thursday's Asian trading day, the XAU/USD gold price continued to slide to a two-week low of $1,761. The recent inactivity of the precious metal may be related to the absence of significant data or occurrences. However, rising rates and geopolitical uncertainties, in addition to the widespread pessimism surrounding the US economy and Fed movements, have weighed on the XAU/USD exchange rate.

 

The 10-year US Treasury yield jumped to a new monthly high above 2.90%, the highest level in a week, which put pressure on Wall Street benchmarks and helped the US dollar recover from its drop following the release of the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Wednesday's North American trading session closed with gains of 0.18% for the US Dollar Index (DXY), bringing the index up to a level near 106.70.

 

According to the Fed Minutes, the officials were unanimous in their support for the 75 basis point rate hike in August, but they did anticipate a gradual reduction in the rate of future increases. The Minutes also suggested that Fed members were aware of the risk that the central bank could tighten more than was warranted.

 

In other news, July retail sales in the US showed no rise, compared to the 0.1% forecast and the 0.8% previously reported. However, 0.8% was reported for the Retail Sales Control Group, up from 0.6% originally reported and 0.7% previously (updated from 0.8%).

 

High inflation and high employment would certainly impose some pressure on labor and employment, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman remarked recently.

 

Furthermore, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang recently went off the grid when he urged local leaders from six important provinces that account for approximately 40% of the country's economy to strengthen pro-growth policies by publishing an open letter in the Communist Party's flagship newspaper People's Daily. President Xi Jinping and the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the state planner, have previously signaled their willingness to take additional measures to allay recession fears.

 

Next, XAU/USD investors may find distraction in lower-tier US data as they focus on China, central banks, and economic worries while ignoring the rest of the world.

Technical Analysis

XAU/USD bears are aiming for the prior resistance line from April 18, which is now at $1,735 as of press time and would be reached by confirming the rising wedge bearish chart pattern and then trading below the 50-DMA and 21-DMA for an extended period of time.

 

The yearly low for the time being is around $1,680, but a clear breach below $1,735 will not hesitate to retest it.

 

Alternately, the 21-day moving average and the 50-day moving average both have their eyes on the immediate upside of the quote, around $1,765 and $1,776 respectively. The following support comes from the lower line of the aforementioned wedge, which is now at $1,809.


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