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A Reuters poll shows 53% of economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates to 0.75% in December. Economists unanimously believe the Bank of Japan will raise rates to at least 0.75% before the end of the first quarter of next year. Wage increases in labor negotiations next year are expected to be 4.90%, lower than this years 5.25%.November 20th - Despite Trumps repeated mentions of providing $2,000 to low- and middle-income families and his claim that the funds would come from tariff revenue, his party colleagues are generally lukewarm about the plan, questioning its ability to secure congressional approval to deliver on its promise. Several Republican members of Congress have stated they prefer using tariff revenue to reduce the fiscal deficit rather than directly distributing cash. With US public debt nearing historic highs, lawmakers believe the priority should be strengthening fiscal discipline, not restarting the "money-giving" model. Furthermore, some lawmakers are considering using tariff revenue to extend subsidies under the Affordable Care Act. This subsidy expires on December 31st, and failure to renew it would lead to a surge in insurance premiums for millions of Americans.Market news: The White House has asked Congress to reject a bill restricting Nvidias exports.Jinlu Electronics: The companys PCB products are used in battery management systems, but it does not produce lithium batteries.On November 20th, Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara stated at a press conference that the recent one-way, sharp fluctuations in the yens exchange rate are worrying and require close monitoring. He pointed out, "We must be vigilant against excessive volatility and disorderly trends in the exchange rate." This statement came as the yen fell below 157 against the dollar, reaching its weakest level since January of this year. The weakening market expectations for a near-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve are a significant factor driving the dollars strength and putting pressure on the yen. Kihara emphasized that stable exchange rates based on economic fundamentals are crucial, and he opposed sharp fluctuations driven by speculation or market sentiment.

Before the PBoC's monetary policy announcement, AUD/JPY recovers strongly from 92.00

Alina Haynes

Feb 20, 2023 11:14

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Despite a difficult start to the Tokyo session at 92.10, the AUD/JPY pair has gained momentum. The risk barometer has recovered to approximately 92.30 and is expected to continue its upward trend in the near future. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the US representative to the United Nations, declared on Sunday that China would cross a "red line" if it sent lethal military help to Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine.

 

According to Reuters, recent news from public broadcaster NHK that Japan's Coast Guard said North Korea fired three projectiles that may have been ballistic missiles has compounded the already negative market sentiment.

 

When the United States conducted bilateral air exercises with South Korea and Japan in response to the North's ICBM launch on Sunday, Kim Yo Jong, the sister of North Korean leader Kim, warned against the escalating deployment of U.S. strategic weapons on the Korean peninsula.

 

Investors await the People's Bank of China's interest rate announcement for additional guidance (PBoC). Eight out of 10 economists, according to a Reuters poll published on February 17, believe that the PBoC would retain the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.65%. After the abolition of currency restrictions, China is required to maintain an expansionary monetary policy to stimulate economic growth.

 

Bloomberg stated that Goldman Sachs predicts the MSCI China Index could reach 85 by the end of 2023, a nearly 24% increase from current levels, as the nation's economic opening generates windfall advantages for corporations.

 

Notably, Australia is a major trading partner of China, and the increased economic activity in China will benefit the Australian Dollar.

 

On Tuesday, preliminary Jibun Bank PMI (Feb) data will be released, which will have a substantial impact on the Japanese Yen. The Manufacturing PMI is expected to remain constant at 48.9, whilst the Services PMI is expected to increase from 51.1 to 51.5.