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On March 15th, Matt Reed, Vice President of the geopolitical and energy consultancy Foreign Reports, stated that an attack on Kharg Island could trigger Iranian retaliation against Gulf oil-producing countries. He said, "Iran will retaliate in kind." The United States warned on Friday that if Iran continues to block the Strait of Hormuz, Kharg Islands oil facilities could become the next target. Reed warned that the longer the conflict continues, the harder it will be to find alternative energy supplies. "At least 10 million barrels of oil are trapped in the Gulf every day, plus more than 4 million barrels of refined petroleum products and tens of billions of cubic feet of liquefied natural gas, with no easy alternatives." The International Energy Agency has announced the largest emergency oil reserve release in history, with 32 member countries planning to release approximately 400 million barrels of oil. However, Reed believes this measure will have limited effect, stating, "By the time the oil gets to the market, it may be too little, too late." He described it as nothing more than a "band-aid."On March 15th, local time, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement saying that in the past 48 hours, the US and Israel had launched attacks on several civilian industrial facilities in Iran, resulting in the deaths of several workers. The statement said that after setbacks in its confrontation with Iran, the US and Israel have turned to attacking non-military industrial facilities. Iran warned that US companies in the region should withdraw from their facilities and urged nearby residents to stay away from industrial areas with US capital involvement to avoid potential attacks.The Swiss government has discussed the US request for military overflight. In accordance with the principle of neutrality, the Federal Council rejected two requests related to the war with Iran.Local officials said operations at the Lanaz refinery in Iraq’s Erbil province have been suspended until the fire is extinguished and the damage is assessed.On March 15th, Colombian Energy Minister Edwin Palma posted on the X platform that Venezuelas state-owned oil company PDVSA intends to terminate its contract with Colombias state-owned oil company Ecopetrol regarding the Antonio Ricardo pipeline, citing insufficient investment in its maintenance. Palma stated that the Colombian government plans to meet with the US government next Monday to discuss lifting sanctions in an effort to normalize commercial relations with Venezuela. Palma also indicated that Colombia has approved a license to resume imports of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) from Venezuela at a rate of 1.26 million gallons per month.

Bears on the AUD/NZD pair are watching 1.1080

Alina Haynes

Aug 09, 2022 15:04

 截屏2022-08-09 上午10.11.28.png

 

The AUD/NZD exchange rate is stable at the Tokyo open and has fluctuated today between 1.1091 and 1.1115 as a result of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's projections for inflation at the beginning of the week and strong Chinese data.

 

According to analysts at Westpac, as inflation expectations fall, the RBNZ will become more assured that the risks of high inflation becoming ingrained in the economy are waning. This is especially relevant in light of the multi-decade high actual inflation rate and related concerns of a wage-price spiral, analysts said.

 

Analysts did note, however, that the poll "The evidence that there are still strong inflation pressures in the New Zealand economy supports raising interest rates. At the RBNZ policy meeting the following week, a further 50bp increase is anticipated.

 

The New Zealand dollar has since made up all of the losses suffered after Friday's strong US Nonfarm Payrolls report. US bond yields have decreased, which has led to a rise in risk and a decline in the value of the dollar. The most recent surge in NZD strength, according to analysts at ANZ Bank, appears to be the outcome of a stronger AUD, which has reclaimed the lead as markets take in strong Chinese trade data.

 

"Before the critical US Consumer Price data for July is released tomorrow evening, it is doubtful that the NZD will increase much. The Fed's (and the US bond market's) main concern is that monthly core readings will continue to be elevated, even though annual headline inflation may calm down. The specifics will determine if this results in a resurgence of USD strength.


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