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July 4th - A Reuters survey showed that OPEC crude oil production rebounded sharply in June, increasing by approximately 3.3 million barrels per day to 19.43 million barrels per day, a significant rebound from the more than two-decade low reached in May, but still far below quota levels. This production increase was mainly driven by the resumption of supply from Gulf countries, with Kuwait seeing the largest increase, followed by Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq. Nigeria and Libya also saw slight increases in production. The UAE withdrew from OPEC on May 1st and is no longer included in the statistics. The report noted that the previous war with Iran and the de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz had caused supply disruptions, but the subsequent lifting of restrictions on ships at Iranian ports by the United States helped to restore some production. Although OPEC+ had planned to increase production in June, it could not be fully implemented due to the war. Overall, global crude oil supply is recovering, but has not yet returned to normal levels.Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf: The United States must "accept the established realities in the trade arena."Hang Seng Index futures closed down 0.2% at 23,253 points in overnight trading, a discount of 97 points.On July 4th, Labour politician Andy Burnham stated that if he succeeds Starmer as Prime Minister, he will not dissolve Parliament early and call a new general election. Instead, he will continue to implement Labours campaign promises from the 2024 general election, including maintaining the triple lock on pensions. He also outlined several policy positions: advocating for stronger regulation in the public service sector, even considering nationalization in some industries; supporting further improvements in UK-EU relations; willing to negotiate with countries including Afghanistan to repatriate rejected asylum seekers; supporting electoral reform; ensuring adequate funding for defense investment programs; and explicitly stating continued firm support for Ukraine. If the party nomination proceeds smoothly and without competition, he could become Labour leader in mid-July and subsequently become Prime Minister.July 4th - As of 2:30 PM closing, the Shanghai Gold futures contract rose 0.81%, the Shanghai Silver futures contract rose 1.61%, and the SC crude oil futures contract fell 0.16%.

As investors anticipate US Services PMI, the USD/JPY pair falls to around 134.00

Daniel Rogers

Dec 05, 2022 14:09

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The USD/JPY pair attempted to surpass the immediate barrier of 134.50 during the Tokyo session. As investors anticipate fresh momentum from U.S. Services PMI data, the asset is expected to remain on tenterhooks. As Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers do not expect the current rate of interest rate hikes to continue, the risk profile remains favorable.

 

Charles Evans, president of the Chicago Fed, was quoted by Reuters as saying on Friday, "We will likely have a little higher Fed policy rate peak even as we slow the pace of rate hikes."

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is hovering near its immediate support level of 104.50 and is likely to test Friday's low at 104.40. In the context of a significant decline in the desirability of safe-haven assets, the risk appetite theme is likely to continue exerting pressure on US Dollar bulls.

 

In the interim, 10-year US Treasury rates have increased after falling below 3.50 percent during the Asian session, as market sentiment turns cautious prior to the release of US Services PMI data. The projected economic statistics is 55.6, a decline from the previous report of 54.4.

 

The New Orders Index is expected to rise from 56.5 to 58.5 on the US Services PMI spectrum. This indicates that future demand will be robust, which might de-anchor short-term inflation expectations and ruin the risk-on profile.

 

On the Tokyo front, Governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) Haruhiko Kuroda stressed the potential of a decrease in inflation beginning in CY2023. This may encourage the BOJ to continue easing monetary policy in order to keep inflation near the 2% target. Total Household Expenditures statistics will be of the utmost relevance in the future. The economic data are projected to increase annually by 3.4%, up from 2.3% in the previous report.