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The main contract of industrial silicon rose by more than 3% and is now quoted at 8,995 yuan/ton.On September 15, the overnight shibor was 1.4080%, up 4.10 basis points; the 7-day shibor was 1.4700%, up 1.00 basis points; the 14-day shibor was 1.5040%, down 2.00 basis points; the January shibor was 1.5330%, up 0.10 basis points; and the March shibor was 1.5530%, the same as the previous trading day.According to futures data on September 15, overnight shibor was 1.4080%, up 4.10 basis points; 7-day shibor was 1.4700%, up 1.00 basis points; 14-day shibor was 1.5040%, down 2.00 basis points; January shibor was 1.5330%, up 0.10 basis points; March shibor was 1.5530%, the same as the previous trading day.On September 15th, Pop Mart (09992.HK) plunged nearly 9% on Monday, its biggest drop since April, hitting its lowest level in over a month, after JPMorgan Chase downgraded its rating to neutral, citing a "lack of catalysts and unattractive valuation." This followed social media posts pointing to weak demand for its new "SKULLPANDA" product, and JPMorgans downgrade heightened market concerns about waning popularity. JPMorgan analysts Kevin Yin and others stated in a report: "Current valuations already reflect perfect expectations. Any minor fundamental disappointment or negative media coverage (such as falling pre-owned prices or third-party licensing issues) could trigger a share price decline." Although the stock has still risen over 180% this year, its 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio is now close to 23 times.On September 15th, the market generally expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, but uncertainty remained about the direction of the policy once it was implemented. Marc Giannoni, Barclays chief US economist, stated that with inflation remaining subdued, the FOMC will judge that downside risks to achieving its employment goals are increasing. He added that the Feds economic projections remained largely unchanged, but the dot plot indicated three rate cuts (each 25 basis points) this year, one each in 2026 and 2027, while the median long-term interest rate forecast remained unchanged at 3.0%.

AUD/USD bulls retain dominance over 0.68 prior of RBA's Lowe and US NFP data

Daniel Rogers

Dec 02, 2022 15:42

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The AUD/USD pair oscillates near 0.6800 in the early Asian session on Friday, a day after reclaiming the 11-week high. Despite this, the AUD/USD pair has climbed for three consecutive days as a result of widespread US Dollar weakness and market optimism on China's Covid situation. Weak US statistics could contribute to the rally's vigor.

 

At the time of publication, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was under pressure near 104.70, its lowest level in four months, as the dovish stance of Federal Reserve (Fed) members and the pessimistic comments of US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen increased expectations of easy rate hikes.

 

Michelle Bowman, governor of the Federal Reserve (Fed), recently stated that we should control the rate of price increases. Prior to him, Fed Governor Jerome Powell and US Treasury Secretary Yellen both alluded to a halt in rate hikes and advocated for a soft landing. Michael Barr, vice chairman of supervision, adding, "At the next meeting, we may reduce the rate of rate increases." Notably, recent remarks by John Williams of the New York Fed appeared to test US Dollar bears as policymakers underlined that the Federal Reserve still has a ways to go with rate hikes.

 

The predominance of bad US statistics, in addition to Fed-speak, weighed heavily on the US Dollar. However, the US Core Personal Consumption Expenses (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, matched market forecasts of 5.0% on a year-over-year basis, but dropped to 0.2% on a month-over-month basis, compared to 0.3% that was anticipated. In addition, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for November dropped to 49.0 from the expected 49.7 and the previous 50.2.

 

In addition, the three consecutive days of a decline in the number of daily Covid infections in China from the record high allowed regulators to hint at the "next step" in combating the virus while announcing a number of easings of activity-control measures. Given the close ties between Australia and China, AUD/USD buyers typically celebrate positive developments in Beijing.

 

Domestic Private Capital Expenditures in Australia for the third quarter (Q3) declined to -0.6%, compared to the predicted 1.5% and the prior -0.3%. Moreover, poor November readings for Australia's AiG Performance of Mfg Index and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI appeared to have weighed on AUD/USD bulls at the multi-day high.

 

Prior to the speech of Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe, it appears that the mixed performance of Wall Street and the multi-month low US Treasury yields weighed on AUD/USD bulls. During his address earlier in the week, the policymaker alluded to a reduction in interest rates; hence, the bull's concerns are justified. In addition, the cautious outlook ahead of the crucial US employment report for November, for which preliminary indications have been negative and which may favor Australian buyers if actual results match forecasts, could weigh on prices.

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