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Poland signs $3.8 billion deal to boost F-16 fleet capabilities.On August 13, CNBC reported that two unnamed government officials revealed that the Trump administration is considering 11 candidates to succeed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell when his term expires next May, including three previously unnamed names. These new members include Jefferies Chief Market Strategist David Zervos, former Federal Reserve Governor Larry Lindsey, and BlackRocks Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income Rick Rieder. They join the eight candidates previously confirmed by CNBC: Federal Reserve Vice Chairman for Supervision Bowman, Federal Reserve Governor Waller, and Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson. Officials also confirmed that the list also includes Mark Summerlin, a former economic adviser in the Bush administration; Dallas Fed President Logan; and former St. Louis Fed President Bullard. Officials described a "deliberative process" in which Treasury Secretary Bessant will meet with all candidates, whittle down the list, and present the final list to the president for a decision. The size of the list and the process described suggest a decision is not imminent and could take considerable time. However, officials declined to provide a timeline.On August 13th, U.S. Treasury Secretary Benson said in an interview that the Federal Reserves interest rate should be 150-175 basis points lower than it is now, and that if the data were accurate, the Fed could have cut rates earlier. Bessant believes a 50 basis point rate cut is possible, with a series of cuts likely starting in September. Regarding the selection of the Fed chair, he mentioned that they will cast a wide net, encompassing 10-11 people. He also stated that he had proposed establishing a "shadow Fed chair" but now believes it is unnecessary. Furthermore, Bessant believes the Fed does not need to resume large-scale asset purchases (QE). Regarding the jobs report, he expressed opposition to halting its release, but emphasized the need for reliable data. Some analysts say the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September is now almost zero. For this to happen, another weak non-farm payroll report would likely be needed in September.According to CNBC: Two government officials revealed that the Trump administration is considering 11 candidates to succeed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell when his term expires in May this year, including three people who have never been publicly nominated before. The new candidates include Jefferies Chief Market Strategist David Zervos, former Federal Reserve Governor Larry Lindsey and BlackRock Global Fixed Income Chief Investment Officer Rick Rieder.On August 13, Eddie Yue, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, stated in a statement: "Hong Kongs banking system is well-capitalized, adequately provisioned, and financially strong to withstand market volatility." While credit risks facing the banking system have increased in recent years amidst the ongoing macroeconomic challenges, the banks profit models remain unaffected. I would also like to take this opportunity to clarify earlier rumors regarding "bad banks." The establishment of "bad banks" is an extraordinary measure taken when banks face serious balance sheet problems and is completely inconsistent with the current sound operations and strong financial position of Hong Kongs banks.

AUD/NZD moves within a 23-pip band due to Australian inflation that is lower than predicted

Alina Haynes

Nov 30, 2022 15:27

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The AUD/NZD pair swung wildly between 1.0764 and 1.0787 throughout the Asian session after the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported lower-than-anticipated Australian inflation data. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October reported a decrease in inflation to 6.9%, when market participants had predicted an increase to 7.4%.

 

If inflation declines, policymakers at the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would likely heave a sigh of relief. Since inflationary pressures had previously shown little indication of abating, the Australian central bank was particularly concerned. In order to combat inflation, the market predicted that RBA Governor Philip Lowe will be forced to return to a rate hike structure of 50 basis points (bps).

 

As the inflation rate has fallen below 7.0%, the RBA may retain its present timetable of 25 basis point rate hikes to sustain economic prospects and satisfy its duty to seek price stability.

 

Investors are currently monitoring the development of the Chinese demonstrations. As a result of the public's enraged and exasperated lockdown protest against Covid, economic projections have become more bleak. This has held the antipodeans captive to bears for the past week.

 

Other than that, Thursday's Caixin Manufacturing PMI data will continue to be crucial. It is projected that the economic data would be lower at 48.9 than the prior reading of 49.2.

 

In New Zealand, the number of Building Permits has decreased by 10.7%, compared to the expected 2.4% increase and the previous release of 3.6%. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) increase in interest rates may be responsible for a decrease in the economic catalyst.

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