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On August 18th, according to South Korean media reports, Trump, when discussing the joint US-South Korea military exercises, mentioned South Koreas defense costs and its refusal to participate in a war with Iran, expressing his dissatisfaction. He said, "South Korea has been protected by us for decades. During my first term as president, they agreed to pay nearly $3 billion a year for protection. I asked for $10 billion, and they were unhappy about that. The agreement we reached was to pay $3 billion in the short term, increase it after one year, and increase it again the following year." Trump then claimed, "I watched as Biden (former president) withdrew that $3 billion for some reason." Trump also stated, "Recently, when I spoke with the South Korean president (Lee Jae-myung) on the phone, I said, Would you be willing to offer some help? We dont need your help on Iran, but if you want to help, then help. And he said, Were not going to participate." Trump continued, "We have 39,000 US troops deployed in South Korea, and youre unwilling to help us in such an easy military operation as Iran. Its really strange."Market news: Anthropics annualized revenue surpassed $65 billion prior to its IPO.Sources familiar with the matter revealed that some North American auto industry officials believe that either option would be an improvement over the current 25% tariff imposed by the United States on Canadian cars, since the tariff rates on cars from Japan, South Korea, and the European Union are only 15%.Sources familiar with the matter revealed that U.S. officials proposed deducting only the U.S. domestic value from the 15% tariff on Canadian cars, but Canadian officials wanted to deduct all North American components.Sources familiar with the matter revealed that, after deducting certain value components, the United States and Canada are in talks to reduce U.S. auto tariffs from the current 25% to 15%.

USD/JPY continues Powell-led declines to fresh 14-week low, BOJ's Kuroda, and US PCE Inflation in the horizon

Daniel Rogers

Dec 01, 2022 15:22

截屏2022-12-01 上午10.12.17.png 

 

As Tokyo opens on Thursday, USD/JPY bears take advantage of the weakening US Dollar to mark the lowest level in more than three months near 137.30. In addition to falling US Treasury bond yields and a risk-on market mentality, the recent depreciation of the Yen could be attributed to a weaker yen.

 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell made his first public appearance since the November Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting by speaking at the Brookings Institution about the economic outlook, inflation, and employment. The official noted that it makes sense to reduce the rate of interest rate increases and speculated that this might occur as soon as the December meeting. Lisa D. Cook, a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, praised the inflation figures as evidence that the Fed will likely take fewer steps in the future.

 

Following Powell's speech, market bets supporting a 50 basis point (bps) rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December increased from 69.9% prior to the speech to over 75%, resulting in a depreciation of the US Dollar and a rise in Treasury yields, while equities appreciated.

 

As a result, the US Dollar Index (DXY) shattered a three-day uptrend on Wednesday, exhibiting the steepest daily fall in a week and the largest monthly decline in 12 years. Notable is the fact that Wall Street benchmarks responded favourably to Fed Chair Yellen's dovish remarks, while 10-year Treasury bond yields reversed early gains to end November on a negative note near 3.61 percent.

 

In addition to Fedspeak, the poor US statistics and optimism on China's Covid situation also weighed on USD/JPY prices. Among these, the US ADP Employment Change received the most attention, as its November result of 127K constituted the lowest readings since January 2021, compared to the 200K expected and 239K previous results. In addition, China reported just over 38,000 daily cases of Coronavirus on Tuesday, which was reported on Wednesday, indicating the second consecutive day of declining virus levels after the record high was updated. The gradual easing of virus-driven activity restrictions in major cities such as Zhengzhou, Guangzhou, and Chongqing looked to have favored Yen pair sellers.

 

Moving forward, the Fed's favored inflation measure, namely the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for October, which is forecasted to increase to 5.0% YoY in October from 5.1% in September, will be key for near-term USD/JPY fluctuations. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for November will also be significant, with a predicted reading of 49.8 compared to 50.2 earlier. Recent rumors regarding the possible tightening of monetary policy by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) in 2023 are the focal point of Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's address today.


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