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On May 5, according to CMEs "Fed Watch": The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 96.8%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 3.2%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 63.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 35.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 1.1%.Spot gold opened basically flat on Monday, currently trading at $3,243.89 an ounce.1. Chechen leader: Ukrainian troops try to return to Kursk. 2. Temporary restrictions imposed at Vnukovo Airport in Moscow, Russia. 3. Ukrainian military: 69 drones launched by Russia were shot down overnight. 4. Putin said he has been considering the issue of succession, but the final choice will be made by the Russian people. 5. According to Interfax: Russian President Putin said that we have enough strength and means to push the conflict with Ukraine to a reasonable end. 6. According to Ukrainian Pravda: The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces said that in the past 24 hours, the Russian army lost two fighter planes, 1,340 soldiers were killed or wounded, and 11 tanks.On May 5, Japans attitude towards using U.S. debt as a negotiating tool with the United States reversed again. According to Nikkei News, Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Sunday (May 4) that Japan has no intention of using the possibility of selling its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds to gain an advantage in trade negotiations with the United States, and Japan does not consider the sale of U.S. Treasury bonds to be a tool for Japan-U.S. negotiations. Katsunobu Kato said last Friday that although Japan would not easily sell its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, they were a "card" for negotiations with the United States on trade issues; he overturned this statement at a press conference on Sunday. The Japanese Ministry of Finance reported that as of the end of March, Japan held $1.27 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, most of which were U.S. Treasury bonds. Foreign exchange reserves can be used to intervene in the foreign exchange market. In April, Katsunobu Kato ruled out the possibility of using Japans holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds as a negotiating tool.On May 5, the Israeli Prime Ministers Office issued a statement on the evening of May 4 local time, saying that Israel will retaliate against the Houthi armed forces and their ally Iran in response to the missile attack on Tel Avivs Ben-Gurion International Airport earlier that day. The statement said that the attack by the Houthi armed forces in Yemen "originated from Iran" and Israel will choose the time and place to take action against Iran, the force behind the Houthi armed forces. Iran has not responded to this yet.

As Japan Prepares for BOJ Amamiya to Handle Monetary Policy, the EUR/JPY Rebounds from 142.00

Daniel Rogers

Feb 06, 2023 16:09

After falling to approximately 142.00 during the Asian session, the EUR/JPY pair has made a robust recovery. According to a Nikkei article published by Bloomberg, the Japanese government is aiming to recruit Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya to replace Haruhiko Kuroda as the head of the central bank.

 

In February, the nominees for Kuroda's replacement will be finalized, and discussions for a change from the ultra-loose monetary policy of the past decade will intensify.

 

The BoJ has already widened the yield curve to boost flexibility. Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan Masazumi Wakatabe noted last week, "BoJ's December decision to broaden band was a necessary step to make YCC more sustainable, but the move alone may have undermined the effect of the stimulus."

 

For renewed impetus in the Eurozone, investors anticipate the release of Retail Sales data. The economic statistics is expected to drop by 2.7% annually, compared to the prior annual contraction of 2.8%. It is projected that the monthly data will decrease by 2.5% compared to the 0.8% growth reported earlier.

 

The Eurozone economy has suffered a decrease in consumer spending for five consecutive months, which will satisfy the European Central Bank (ECB) as it reduces its forecasts for the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

 

Pierre Wunsch, a member of the ECB Governing Council, told Reuters on Friday that the ECB will not reduce its benchmark interest rate from 50 basis points (bps) in March to zero in May. May might see a 25 or 50 basis point increase, according to Wunsch.


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