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1. Barclays: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. The central bank governor has clearly stated that the central banks policy objectives are unusually aligned in one direction: raising interest rates. 2. Reuters poll: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. 28 out of 31 economists predict the Bank of Korea will raise its benchmark interest rate to 3.00% by the end of the year. 3. HSBC: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, as the won continues to face depreciation pressure, core inflation remains strong, and the outlook for South Korean economic growth has improved. 4. Bank of America: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. The banks stance on the won may be more crucial than the rate hike itself, as policymakers may focus on the wons continued weakness. 5. Scotiabank: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. The governor has previously given strong hints, and South Korean inflation continues to exceed the target, with the wons depreciation exacerbating imported inflation. 6. Citibank: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, and its governor will hint at 25 basis point increases every quarter in the second half of the year; further rate hikes are expected in July and October this year, and January and April next year. 7. KB Financial Group: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. The central bank may raise rates twice this year, but the probability of another rate hike in October is higher than consecutive rate hikes in July and August. 8. NH Investment & Securities: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. The central bank may not provide a specific timetable for further rate hikes to avoid the side effects of forward guidance. 9. Hanwha Investment & Securities: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. This meeting may have an overall hawkish tone. Whether economic growth forecasts are revised upwards and the guidance on the future pace of rate hikes will be key points to watch. 10. Crédit Agricole: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. As the central bank will not update its economic forecasts and forward guidance until August, and oil prices have fallen, the central bank is more likely to raise rates again in October. International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol: Markets are nervous about the renewed escalation of the conflict with Iran.July 16 – The U.S. government imposed sanctions on several individuals and entities on Wednesday, alleging they belong to an international network assisting Iran in procuring weapons. The U.S. Treasury Department said in a statement that the sanctions target Iranian and Russian nationals, as well as multiple entities located in Iran, Russia, and Nigeria. The Treasury Department stated that Wednesdays sanctions "fully illustrate how Iran uses foreign airlines and transport companies, financial channels, and travel coordinators to conceal the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps role in illicit procurement and the global movement of supplies and personnel."A Reuters poll shows that more than half of Japanese companies believe the weak yen is bad for their profits.A Reuters poll shows that nearly one-third of Japanese companies say the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hikes to date have hurt capital investment.

AUD/USD Recovers from 0.6900 as Australian Retail Sales Decline Less than Expected

Daniel Rogers

Feb 06, 2023 16:03

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As the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported a smaller-than-expected fall in Retail Sales for the fourth quarter of CY2022, the AUD/USD pair has attempted to recover to approximately 0.6900. The economic figures have decreased by 0.2%, when the market anticipated a 0.6% decline.

 

The Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) anticipated release of its interest rate decision on Tuesday will be the most significant event that will generate volatility in the Australian Dollar. As the Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) has not yet reached its peak, the outlook for the policy stance is quite pessimistic. The rate of inflation in Australia reached a new high of 7.8 percent in the fourth quarter of CY2022.

 

Deutsche Bank Australia analysts believe that the RBA will likely hike the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 4.1%, citing the most recent inflation update, which revealed a slightly higher-than-anticipated 7.8% increase in the CPI. According to Forbes Advisor, "while the RBA will likely move more slowly in 2023 than in 2022, we now estimate four additional 25 basis point increases this year: 25 basis points in February and March, and 25 basis points at the May and August meetings."

 

Following a significant surge in Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data in the United States, the risk profile is currently favoring safe-haven assets. The US Dollar Index (DXY) intends to raise its auction profile over 102.50. S&P500 futures maintained their downward trend during the Asian session, signaling a further decline in market participants' risk appetite. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes has risen to approximately 3.57 percent.