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1. Barclays: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. The central bank governor has clearly stated that the central banks policy objectives are unusually aligned in one direction: raising interest rates. 2. Reuters poll: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. 28 out of 31 economists predict the Bank of Korea will raise its benchmark interest rate to 3.00% by the end of the year. 3. HSBC: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, as the won continues to face depreciation pressure, core inflation remains strong, and the outlook for South Korean economic growth has improved. 4. Bank of America: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. The banks stance on the won may be more crucial than the rate hike itself, as policymakers may focus on the wons continued weakness. 5. Scotiabank: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. The governor has previously given strong hints, and South Korean inflation continues to exceed the target, with the wons depreciation exacerbating imported inflation. 6. Citibank: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, and its governor will hint at 25 basis point increases every quarter in the second half of the year; further rate hikes are expected in July and October this year, and January and April next year. 7. KB Financial Group: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. The central bank may raise rates twice this year, but the probability of another rate hike in October is higher than consecutive rate hikes in July and August. 8. NH Investment & Securities: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. The central bank may not provide a specific timetable for further rate hikes to avoid the side effects of forward guidance. 9. Hanwha Investment & Securities: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. This meeting may have an overall hawkish tone. Whether economic growth forecasts are revised upwards and the guidance on the future pace of rate hikes will be key points to watch. 10. Crédit Agricole: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. As the central bank will not update its economic forecasts and forward guidance until August, and oil prices have fallen, the central bank is more likely to raise rates again in October. International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol: Markets are nervous about the renewed escalation of the conflict with Iran.July 16 – The U.S. government imposed sanctions on several individuals and entities on Wednesday, alleging they belong to an international network assisting Iran in procuring weapons. The U.S. Treasury Department said in a statement that the sanctions target Iranian and Russian nationals, as well as multiple entities located in Iran, Russia, and Nigeria. The Treasury Department stated that Wednesdays sanctions "fully illustrate how Iran uses foreign airlines and transport companies, financial channels, and travel coordinators to conceal the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps role in illicit procurement and the global movement of supplies and personnel."A Reuters poll shows that more than half of Japanese companies believe the weak yen is bad for their profits.A Reuters poll shows that nearly one-third of Japanese companies say the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hikes to date have hurt capital investment.

AUD/USD falls below 0.7070 despite a positive Services PMI from Caixin

Alina Haynes

Feb 03, 2023 15:29

Despite the release of good Caixin Manufacturing PMI (January) data from IHS Markit, the AUD/USD pair has established a new daily low at 0.7064. The economic data came in at 52.9, which is significantly higher than the consensus estimate of 47.3 and the prior report of 48.0. China's Services PMI has stayed upbeat despite the Lunar New Year celebrations in the last week of January.

 

Notable are the facts that Australia is China's largest trading partner and the Australian Dollar is its currency.

 

The Australian Dollar is likely to be influenced by the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) anticipated interest rate announcement on Tuesday. In view of the unexpected rise in the Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 7.8% in the fourth quarter of CY2022, RBA Governor Philip Lowe may maintain his aggressive stance regarding interest rates.

 

Deutsche Bank Australia analysts believe that the RBA will likely hike the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 4.1%, citing the most recent inflation update, which revealed a slightly higher-than-anticipated 7.8% increase in the CPI. Forbes Advisor states, "While the RBA will likely move more slowly in 2023 than it did in 2022, we now anticipate four additional 25 basis point hikes in 2019: 25 basis points in February and March, and 25 basis points at the May and August meetings."

 

In the meanwhile, investors have been risk-averse due to rising anxiety preceding the United States' Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data release. Futures on the S&P500 and other perceived-risk assets are under heavy pressure. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has rebounded to approximately 101.50 after a corrective move and is expected to remain under the hands of bulls moving forward. In anticipation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may suspend its policy tightening, 10-year US Treasury yields have fallen to approximately 3.38 percent.