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Futures news on June 20, short-term oil prices rebounded sharply, driving the cost side upward, and the absolute prices of high- and low-sulfur fuel oils also fluctuated and were strong. The tense geopolitical situation caused Irans high-sulfur fuel oil shipments to remain low, coupled with summer power generation demand to provide support. The number of arbitrage cargoes of low-sulfur fuel oil increased and the demand side lacked significant highlights. It is expected that the upward space for high-sulfur may be greater than that for low-sulfur.Futures June 20 news, the U.S. terminal consumption in the traditional peak season is still very flat, weaker than the same period last year, the cracking difference of European and American refined oil has continued to fall for more than a month, and the oversupply pressure in the crude oil market has not been eliminated. If the geopolitical risk is not out of control, it is difficult for oil prices to open up upward space. At present, the geopolitical situation has brought uncertainty to the market. The possibility of geopolitical out of control cannot be ruled out, but generally speaking, the probability of out of control is still relatively small. It is difficult for the United States to bear the risk of creating a war in the Middle East, but at the current stage, investors must first pay attention to controlling the risk of uncontrolled oil price surges, although this is a low-probability event. The geopolitical situation may change further after the negotiations on Sunday, so the premise of keeping positions on Friday night must be to control the risk.IDF: Two drones launched by Iran were intercepted in the Dead Sea area.Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi: Japan is working at all levels to ensure that Iran does not miss the opportunity for nuclear negotiations.According to Nikkei: The Japanese government is considering building a state-owned shipyard.

AUD/USD falls below 0.7070 despite a positive Services PMI from Caixin

Alina Haynes

Feb 03, 2023 15:29

Despite the release of good Caixin Manufacturing PMI (January) data from IHS Markit, the AUD/USD pair has established a new daily low at 0.7064. The economic data came in at 52.9, which is significantly higher than the consensus estimate of 47.3 and the prior report of 48.0. China's Services PMI has stayed upbeat despite the Lunar New Year celebrations in the last week of January.

 

Notable are the facts that Australia is China's largest trading partner and the Australian Dollar is its currency.

 

The Australian Dollar is likely to be influenced by the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) anticipated interest rate announcement on Tuesday. In view of the unexpected rise in the Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 7.8% in the fourth quarter of CY2022, RBA Governor Philip Lowe may maintain his aggressive stance regarding interest rates.

 

Deutsche Bank Australia analysts believe that the RBA will likely hike the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 4.1%, citing the most recent inflation update, which revealed a slightly higher-than-anticipated 7.8% increase in the CPI. Forbes Advisor states, "While the RBA will likely move more slowly in 2023 than it did in 2022, we now anticipate four additional 25 basis point hikes in 2019: 25 basis points in February and March, and 25 basis points at the May and August meetings."

 

In the meanwhile, investors have been risk-averse due to rising anxiety preceding the United States' Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data release. Futures on the S&P500 and other perceived-risk assets are under heavy pressure. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has rebounded to approximately 101.50 after a corrective move and is expected to remain under the hands of bulls moving forward. In anticipation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may suspend its policy tightening, 10-year US Treasury yields have fallen to approximately 3.38 percent.


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