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On May 25th, Japanese financial regulators are urging domestic listed companies to allocate more of their cash reserves to long-term business investments, rather than rewarding shareholders through share buybacks and increased dividends. Tatsufumi Shibat, a senior official at the Financial Services Agency, stated in an interview that, in addition to cash, executives should consider using cross-shareholdings and real estate assets to promote growth. He pointed out that regardless of where Japanese companies are on their growth curve, they tend to prioritize shareholder returns. "I dont think investors would make that demand of companies in a rapid growth phase," he said in the interview. Shifting the vast wealth held by businesses and households to fund future expansion is one of the core pillars of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichis efforts to revitalize the Japanese economy. She has long criticized the cash reserves on corporate balance sheets.On May 25th, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who was visiting India, told the media on the 24th that a draft agreement between the US and Iran had gained the support of several Middle Eastern countries. Rubio said that seven to eight countries in the region currently support the draft, and the US is prepared to continue pushing it forward. Rubio also stated that nuclear negotiations are highly specialized, and "its impossible to settle a nuclear matter in 72 hours by writing it on the back of a napkin," but President Trumps commitment to preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons should not be questioned. Earlier that day, Trump posted on social media that negotiations with Iran were "going in an orderly and constructive manner," and that he had informed US representatives that there was no need to rush into an agreement with Iran.On May 25th, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde stated that the ECB is likely to raise its inflation outlook when policymakers meet next month. She said on Sunday that the March forecast of 2.6% inflation this year "may be revised," adding that the situation "has changed" since then. Her comments confirm recent signals from policymakers, including Governing Council member Demarco. Demarco, in an interview, suggested that the forecast, released shortly after the outbreak of the Iran-Iraq conflict, might have been overly optimistic. Lagarde declined to elaborate on whether such a revision would lead to a rate hike by the ECB on June 11th. "The current situation is so uncertain that we must examine all available data, assess how the economy will develop in the coming quarters, determine whether action is needed, and what the medium-term impact will be," she said. "Our target is 2% in the medium term."On May 25th, Kevin Hassett, US President Trumps chief economic advisor, stated that he believes the eventual drop in oil prices will create room for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. "We again expect that once an agreement is reached, energy prices will plummet," Hassett said. "When that happens, the Fed will have ample room to take the right action and lower interest rates." He emphasized his respect for the Feds independence and praised Kevin Warsh, who was sworn in as Fed chairman last Friday. While the surge in US fuel prices caused by Irans closure of the Strait of Hormuz poses a growing political risk to Trump and his Republicans in the November midterm elections, Hassett believes that accelerating inflation is primarily driven by energy prices. "If you look at the recent data reports, energy prices are absolutely worrying, but core prices have hardly changed," he said. "I think once we see energy prices fall, you might actually see negative inflation because of the drop in energy prices."European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde: The current situation is too uncertain to make a commitment on interest rates; inflation forecasts may be revised in June, at which time the ECB will assess the economic situation by taking all data into account.

After recovering from 0.8600 prior to ECB Lagarde's speech, the EUR/GBP pair continues to advance

Daniel Rogers

Dec 08, 2022 15:31

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The EUR/GBP pair has strengthened its rebound to roughly 0.8615 during the Asian session. As investors moved their focus to Christine Lagarde's speech for the European Central Bank, the cross rebounded well after touching Wednesday's low at 0.8600. (ECB).

 

The ECB President's comments will provide fresh impetus for the anticipated monetary policy adjustments at the December monetary policy meeting. Despite the fact that ECB policymakers believe the central bank has imposed a significant deal of pressure on interest rates and that a neutral rate is close at hand, a December rate hike is more likely due to Eurozone inflationary pressures.

 

The median consumer inflation forecast for the next 12 months jumped from 5.0% to 5.4%, according to a survey conducted by the ECB. Inflation forecasts for the next three years remain unchanged at 3%. Therefore, markets should anticipate a hawkish statement on interest rate policy from the ECB president.

 

The monthly Retail Sales statistics declined by 1.8% this week, although analysts had projected a 1.7% decline. In addition, annual Retail Sales declined by 2.7% versus the consensus projection of a 2.6% decline. In the absence of other variables, a decline in consumer spending indicates that inflation will soon decelerate.

 

The escalating food supply problem in the United Kingdom is driving already high food inflation, resulting in an increase in inflationary expectations. Rising input costs and labor constraints are producing a food supply shortage, which is anticipated to increase food inflation from its current 12.4% level. This might exacerbate the decline in the British economy and have repercussions for the pound.