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January 5th - According to foreign media analysis, the case of Panamanian leader Manuel Noriega, arrested by the US government more than 30 years ago, may serve as a significant reference for Maduros case. Noriega was accused of involvement in drug smuggling into the US and was also arrested during a military operation within his own country. His lawyers argued that the US invasion and cross-border arrest violated international law and due process, and that Noriega, as a head of state, enjoyed immunity. However, the court did not accept this argument, ruling that the manner in which he was brought to the US did not affect criminal jurisdiction. Legal experts point out that if Maduro claims he was illegally brought to the US, existing precedents support continuing the prosecution. The real difficulty lies in whether he enjoys immunity as a head of state or for official acts. The difference is that the US did not recognize Noriegas head of state status at the time, while the Department of Justice, in its indictment unsealed on Saturday, referred to Maduro as the "de facto but illegitimate ruler" of Venezuela. Steve Vladek, a professor at Georgetown Universitys Law Center, stated, "This lawsuit is by no means a sure thing," especially regarding the accusations against Maduro himself.On January 5th, according to Tianyanchas risk information platform, Fang Yunzhou, Zhang Yong, and Yichun Langling Enterprise Management Consulting Center (Limited Partnership) were recently added to the list of judgment debtors, with an enforcement target of over 1.05 million yuan. The executing court is the Shanghai First Intermediate Peoples Court. Yichun Langling Enterprise Management Consulting Center (Limited Partnership) was established in October 2021, with Fang Yunzhou as the general partner and a capital contribution of 5.48 million yuan. Its business scope includes social and economic consulting services and information consulting services. Partner information shows that the consulting center is jointly funded by Fang Yunzhou, Zhang Yong, and more than 40 other partners.January 5th - As of midday closing, the Hang Seng Index fell 0.08%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.18%. On the sector front, oil stocks, auto stocks, commercial aerospace stocks, and gaming software stocks led the declines, while short video concept stocks, pharmaceutical outsourcing concept stocks, brain-computer interface concept stocks, and mainland property stocks led the gains. NIO (09866.HK) fell over 5%, Great Wall Motor (02333.HK), XPeng Motors (09868.HK), and PetroChina (00857.HK) fell over 4%, CNOOC (00883.HK) fell over 3%, and Sinopec (00386.HK) fell over 1%. Nanjing Panda Electronics (00553.HK) surged nearly 45%, Joinn Laboratories (06127.HK) rose over 11%, and Kuaishou (01024.HK) and Shimao Group (00813.HK) rose over 9%.The yield on Japans 40-year government bonds rose 2.5 basis points to 3.630%.On January 5th, Daiwa Securities issued a report stating that Mixue Group (02097.HK) is facing a potential downward valuation reassessment due to slowing future profit growth, and its second growth engine has not yet been validated. The bank downgraded its investment rating from "Outperform" to "Hold" and lowered its valuation basis from a projected P/E ratio of 28x to 22x, with the target price reduced from HK$535 to HK$427. The bank believes that Mixues current valuation of 21x (equivalent to a projected P/E ratio for this year) is high, compared to 15-19x for mainland catering peers, and its forecast of a 15% CAGR for Mixues earnings from 2025 to 2027. The report stated that after the subsidy boom, Mixues same-store sales growth has remained resilient, and its branch network expansion may provide some support, but the bank believes the market may have overly high expectations for a second growth engine.

The USD/CHF exchange rate fluctuates at 0.94 prior to US five-year inflation projections

Alina Haynes

Dec 08, 2022 15:27

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During the Tokyo session, the USD/CHF pair is oscillating near the round-level barrier of 0.9400 as investors await the release of the United States' five-year consumer inflation forecasts for more direction. The Swiss franc is attempting to surpass the immediate resistance level of 0.9410, but the risk-on mentality stops the US Dollar from advancing further.

 

In the framework of the risk appetite theme, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is hitting resistance close to the significant level of 105.20. In the meantime, 10-year US Treasury yields have attempted to recover after falling to approximately 3.40 percent on Wednesday. The yield on long-term US Treasury bonds has rebounded to approximately 3.45%.

 

The growing unpredictability around the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy outlook has caused market participants to feel anxious. As a result of favorable U.S. economic data, investors anticipate future rate hikes from the Federal Reserve to combat rising inflationary pressures. Moreover, it will compel a recession, as businesses will lower or maintain their current level of economic activity in response to rising interest liabilities.

 

At a Goldman Sachs financial conference, Bank of America (BoA) CEO Brian Moynihan informed investors that the United States economy will see "moderate contraction" in the first quarter of 2023.

 

Friday's release of US Consumer Inflation Expectations for the Next Five Years will continue to be closely monitored by investors.

 

Regarding the Swiss franc, investors are shifting their focus to the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) interest rate announcement scheduled for next week. As inflationary pressures are moderately over the target rate, it is predicted that SNB Chairman Thomas J. Jordan would continue to loosen monetary policy. This week, the Swiss Unemployment Rate fell to 2.1%, which is lower than the previous data of 2.0% and the consensus estimate of 2.2%.