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AUD/USD crosses 0.6900 amid market concern ahead of an RBA rate hike

Alina Haynes

Jul 05, 2022 11:56

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The AUD/USD currency pair continues its recovery from the week's start, trading at approximately 0.6875 on Tuesday during the Asian session. Market caution and a weakened US dollar may be to blame for the quotation's improved performance. However, bulls appear cautious previous to the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) Interest Rate Decision.

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is struggling to hold onto its two-day gain to 105.00 as buyers retreat from a two-week peak. In reaction to rising Treasury rates, it appears that bulls in the dollar have risen in price. Notable is the fact that benchmark 10-year Treasury bond rates retain the earlier U-turn from a one-month low at roughly 2.92 percent, up three basis points (bps) from Friday's closing.

 

The holiday in the US did not give much relief for bond bears, but higher printing of German Bunds and chatter about the US debate on eliminating Trump-era tariffs on China looked to underpin US Treasury prices. The 10-year German Bund yield rose to 1.32 percent, up at least 10 basis points from its previous level.

 

The AiG Performance of Construction Index for June in Australia fell to 46.2, below the previous level of 50.4, while the S&P global Composite PMI and Services PMI confirmed the initial June prediction of 52.6%.

 

Between now and RBA day, investors will be put to the test by concerns about the economy and China's credit situation, as well as Russian claims to full power in Lysychansk.

 

The US Factory Orders for May, expected at 0.5 percent versus 0.3 percent, might be of interest to AUD/USD traders in the future, but traders should pay close attention to risk triggers and pre-NFP sentiments, as well as the markets' reaction to the recently increased bond rates.

 

Noting that the RBA's 0.50 percent rate hike is already a certainty and looks to have been priced in, Tuesday's RBA Rate Statement will likely give extra momentum. The AUD/USD may be able to extend its recent surge for the time being if the policy announcement signals further rate hikes.


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