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Japans core CPI annual rate in September was 2.9%, in line with expectations of 2.90% and the previous value of 2.70%.1. All three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.31%, the S&P 500 up 0.58%, and the Nasdaq up 0.89%. Honeywell International rose over 6%, and 3M Company rose over 2%, leading the Dow Jones Industrial Average higher. The Wind US Tech 7 Index rose 0.7%, with Tesla up over 2% and Amazon up over 1%. Most Chinese concept stocks rose, with Tiger Brokers up nearly 6% and Hesai Technology up nearly 4%. 2. The three major European stock indices closed slightly higher, with Germanys DAX up 0.23%, Frances CAC 40 up 0.23%, and the UKs FTSE 100 up 0.67%, hitting a record high. European stocks were driven by strong performance in energy stocks, as U.S. sanctions on Russian oil giants pushed up oil prices, leading to gains for stocks like Shell. The UKs FTSE 100 hit a record high, benefiting from growing expectations of interest rate cuts and a rebound in bank stocks. 3. U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 2-year Treasury yield up 4.82 basis points to 3.489%, the 3-year Treasury yield up 5.84 basis points to 3.497%, the 5-year Treasury yield up 5.90 basis points to 3.605%, the 10-year Treasury yield up 5.35 basis points to 4.001%, and the 30-year Treasury yield up 4.90 basis points to 4.578%. 4. International precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures up 1.91% to $4,143.2 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 2.03% to $48.65 per ounce. 5. The main U.S. oil contract closed up 5.56% at $61.75 per barrel, while the main Brent crude oil contract rose 5.38% to $65.96 per barrel. 6. Most of the base metals in London rose, with LME aluminum futures up 2.07% to $2,865.00/ton, LME copper futures up 1.44% to $10,817.00/ton, LME nickel futures up 1.13% to $15,335.00/ton, LME lead futures up 1.08% to $2,012.00/ton, LME tin futures up 1.02% to $35,725.00/ton and LME zinc futures down 0.21% to $3,022.50/ton.On October 24th, German Chancellor Angela Merz expressed optimism that the United States would grant an exemption to the German subsidiary of Russian oil company Rosneft. The chancellor added that it was unclear whether the German subsidiary "needed" an exemption, as sanctions require Rosneft to own at least 50% of the business. "It currently owns exactly 50% of the subsidiary," he said. There are concerns that Rosnefts German subsidiary could be cut off from business by major clients if it does not receive a waiver from US sanctions. Oil traders, banks, and oil companies have already threatened to terminate their partnerships with the company.Japans September core CPI annual rate will be released in ten minutes.On October 24th, UK consumer confidence recorded a reading of -17, climbing to its highest level since August 2024, driven primarily by consumers taking advantage of promotions from Amazon and other major retailers. Neil Bellamy, consumer director at GfK, said: "This rise was partly driven by promotions from major retailers. After years of high inflation, savvy consumers have adjusted their purchasing strategies to maximize their money. The rebound in overall confidence masked growing anxiety about personal finances. While households assessment of the overall economic situation improved, their outlook for their own finances over the coming year deteriorated." Analyst Eamonn Sheridan said the report undermined optimism about a strong recovery in the retail sector and could continue to put pressure on the pound as it reinforces the view that households are preparing for financial tightening, which could curb consumption even during the upcoming crucial Black Friday shopping season.

USD/CAD slips below 1.2870 as the DXY struggles above 104.000 and oil prices reach $110,000

Daniel Rogers

Jun 28, 2022 14:13

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After falling below the critical support level of 1.2870, the USD/CAD pair has declined to about 1.2860. As oil prices have extended their recovery and are currently trading over the psychological resistance of $110.00, it is expected that the asset will continue its losses and finish below 1.2860.

 

Notable is the fact that Canada is the United States' largest oil exporter. Therefore, higher oil prices lead to greater cash flows into Canada. Instead of focusing on advanced recession concerns, investors have decided to support current supply constraints, resulting in a strong oil price recovery.

 

After Western leaders banned Russian oil imports, the OPEC cartel is attempting to settle supply issues. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are the only OPEC members able to considerably expand the global oil supply. Both countries are seeing high prices and ample supply.

 

In the meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY) fails to firmly above the 104.00 round-level barrier. As rapidly as the Federal Reserve (Fed) raises interest rates, concerns of a recession intensify. In its monetary policy statement for July, the Fed will certainly hike interest rates to at least 2 percent. A two percent interest rate is sufficient to restrict market liquidity in the United States. This will force the corporate sector to prioritize very selected investment projects, resulting in an extended drop in labor demand.