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As Australia's finance minister forecasts economic troubles, the AUD/USD pair declines toward 0.69

Daniel Rogers

Jun 27, 2022 14:48

 截屏2022-06-27 上午10.24.35.png

 

Since Friday's temporary reversal of a two-week slide in the AUD/USD pair, the pair has retraced to 0.6910. Despite reversing the previous day's gains during Monday's Asian session, the AUD/USD pair reflects Australia's and the world economy's economic concerns.

 

According to AAP Australian General News, Australian Finance Minister (FinMin) Katy Gallagher misspoke over the weekend when she stated that Australia is facing economic problems. According to Reuters, the remarks follow warnings that the global economy faces stagflation, a combination of sluggish growth and high inflation.

 

Over the weekend, Australia's Treasurer Jim Chalmers expressed concern over rising inflation, although expecting a rate of 7% and agreeing with a central bank projection.

 

Philip Lowe, governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, remarked on Friday, according to Reuters, that he does not foresee a recession in Australia, but that there is a restricted path back to low inflation.

 

Notably, Reuters noted that the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has recommended for "rapid and forceful" interest rate hikes to avoid the inflationary increase from becoming much more severe.

 

The managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, erred over the weekend when she declared, "Further negative shocks will likely make the US economic situation'more challenging'." Notable is the IMF's downward adjustment of the US GDP forecasts for 2022 from 3.7 percent to 2.9 percent.

 

US New Home Sales for May, by 10.7 percent compared to April's revised numbers of -12.0 percent, together with the record low print of the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index for June, to 50.0 from 50.2 early estimates, impacted severely on the US dollar.

 

S&P 500 Futures fail to track Wall Street's gains, slipping 0.30 percent intraday at the latest, as 10-year US Treasury rates increase 1.5 basis points (bps) to about 3.13 percent following their first weekly decline in four weeks.

 

US Durable Goods Orders for May, expected to be 0.1 percent compared to 0.5 percent before, and Pending Home Sales, expected to be -2.0 percent compared to -3.9 percent previously, will be essential for daily direction moving ahead. Nonetheless, Wednesday's meeting with central bankers from the United States, the United Kingdom, and Europe at the ECB Forum on Central Banking will be a crucial event to track for observable market developments.

Technical Evaluation

Although a rising trend line from May 12 caps the downside around 0.6885, the AUD/USD pair's decline from its 10-day moving average of 0.6945 maintains bearish sentiment intact.

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