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XAU/USD drops from three-week high above $1,750 ahead of US PCE inflation, according to the gold price forecast

Alina Haynes

Jul 29, 2022 10:44

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In the Asian session on Friday, buyers and sellers jostled for position near a three-week high, but the gold price (XAU/USD) was unable to maintain its two-day advance. Nevertheless, the price of the precious metal recently declined to $1,754 as the US dollar's yield was tracked in order to delay the bearish tilt before the important inflation report.


US Dollar Index (DXY) maintains its position at 106.00 while being close to its lowest point since July 2005. Over the past two days, the greenback gauge fell as concerns about the Fed's aggressiveness subsided.


On the other hand, a corrective fall in US Treasury rates following a retest of the multi-day low combines the uneven growth triggers to put pressure on the price of XAU/USD. In spite of this, the US 10-year Treasury rates are fluctuating about 2.67 percent, the lowest levels since early April, while the 2-year bond coupons are under pressure at a three-week low, down 0.14 percent intraday at the latest.


Following Fed Chair Jerome Powell's tease about "neutral rates," gold traders should have followed the Flash readings of the US Q2 GDP, which marked the "technical recession" by decreasing for the second time in a row, to encourage the USD currency weakness and soar even higher. Despite this, the initial estimates of the US Q2 GDP showed an annualized number of -0.9 percent compared to an expected figure of 0.5 percent and a prior figure of -1.6 percent. Additionally, the US Initial Jobless Claims increased by 256K during the week ended on July 22, above expectations by 253K.


However, as the US Q2 GDP fell for the second consecutive quarter, US policymakers—including Fed Chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen—teased the idea of a "technical recession" and attempted to dismiss it. The same questions are directed at central bankers who are urging further rate increases to rein down inflation. Additionally, meetings between US Vice President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping went generally well and put downward pressure on the demand for the dollar as a safe haven.


China recently raised concerns for the XAU/USD traders after the Politburo meeting by avoiding discussing its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) objective and citing its position as one of the world's top purchasers of gold.


S&P 500 Futures increase by 0.5 percent amid these moves to hover close to their best levels since early June.


In the near future, it will be crucial to keep an eye on the Fed's favorite inflation indicator, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, which is predicted to increase by 0.5 percent MoM for July compared to its previous rate of 0.3 percent.