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Forecast for the price of gold: XAU/USD bulls target $1,732-33 barrier, focusing on US data, Fed

Alina Haynes

Jul 26, 2022 11:58

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As bulls again approach the 100-SMA barrier during Tuesday's Asian session after failing to breach it the previous two days, gold price (XAU/USD) consolidates the week-start losses. However, as of the time of writing, the yellow metal shows modest increases of about $1,725.


The recent advances in bullion may be related to the weaker US currency, which is being accompanied by low Treasury rates and recession worries in the US. The US Dollar Index (DXY) therefore declines for the fourth day in a row, down 0.18 percent intraday at roughly 106.30 as of the time of publication. Reversing the previous day's rally to 2.81 percent, the US 10-year Treasury rates are now down 3.5 basis points to 2.78 percent. Additionally, the US S&P Global PMIs for July, released on Friday, and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for June on Monday, both increased global economic concerns regarding the US. Recent downgrades in growth projections for the US, the Eurozone, and both failed to strengthen the US dollar.


Additionally, Bloomberg's study indicates that the lower USD and the metal's historical role as a safe haven support the XAU/USD comeback and are supported by worries about the Chinese recession that are teasing the global economic downturn.


In a similar vein, Walmart's reduction in profit projections and concerns about future consumer spending declines are further drivers that support the risk-off mindset during a slow day. A further strain on risk appetite is the downgrading of the US and European GDP predictions by the global rating juggernaut Moody's.


While these maneuvers are going on, the S&P 500 Futures retreat to 3,955, down 0.40 percent intraday, failing to follow Wall Street.


Nevertheless, a light schedule in Europe may limit the movements of the gold price. However, the important indicator for pair traders to keep an eye on is today's US CB Consumer Confidence for July, which was previous to 98.7. The US New Home Sales for June, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for July, and the May House Price Index data will all be crucial. The pre-Fed conversations and growth-related conversations will be especially important to monitor for clear instructions.


From the 50-SMA, gold continues to rise until it reaches the 100-SMA barrier at $1,732-33. However, slow MACD suggests that the metal may still be ground between the important 100-SMA and the 50-SMA, which are close to $1,732-33 and $1,712 in that order.


It's important to keep in mind that the swing high from July 2008 and a downward-sloping resistance line from the beginning of June, which are around $1,752 and $1,766 in that order, might potentially provide obstacles for XAU/USD buyers over $1,733.


On the other hand, eight-day horizontal support at $1,698-97 may stop the metal's decline from moving past the 50-SMA. The most recent multi-month low at $1,680 and the 61.8 percent Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of July 04-22 downward, around $1,656, might entice the bears should the price go below $1,698.