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Russia claims that the military declarations of the pro-Ukrainian "Volunteer Union" are becoming increasingly dangerous.A spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry stated that Western troops and military facilities stationed in Ukraine will be considered legitimate operational targets.A spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry stated that the deployment of Western troops and military facilities in Ukraine would be considered an act of intervention that threatens security.January 8th - British businesses expect a slight slowdown in wage growth and a slower pace of price increases over the next 12 months, a welcome sign for Bank of England officials who have been wary of overly high expectations. In the average survey for the fourth quarter, respondents expected wage growth of 3.7%, down 0.1 percentage points from the three months to November. Meanwhile, businesses expected their own price increases of 3.6%, also down 0.1 percentage points from the previous period. Bank of England policymakers had previously worried that wage and price expectations would remain high after inflation surged again to nearly double the 2% target last year. However, price pressures have eased faster than the Bank expected in recent months, and measures in the budget are expected to bring inflation down to near 2% by spring. A Bank of England survey of chief financial officers showed that businesses cut 0.4% of their workforce last year. The number of employees rose 0.5% year-on-year in December, recovering from a 1.8% drop in November. However, businesses still expect job cuts over the next 12 months, forecasting a further decline of 0.4% – the worst reading since 2020.January 8th - Storage and mass storage companies were the best-performing group in the S&P 500 last year. This sector has surged as massive investments in AI infrastructure have permeated some traditionally stable areas of the tech industry. Led by SanDisk, Western Digital, Seagate Technology, and Micron Technology, this group remains among the top performers in the index at the start of 2026. SanDisk rose 16% on the first trading day of the year, followed by a 28% surge on Tuesday. The stock rose 1.1% on Wednesday, bringing its year-to-date gain to 49%. Meanwhile, Western Digital, Seagate, and Micron all recorded double-digit percentage gains at the start of 2026, although all three stocks declined on Wednesday. Peter Andersen, chief investment officer at Andersen Capital Management, said the recent strong momentum is visually justified given the AI data center construction narrative, but he is increasingly concerned that the market is over-extrapolating future demand and underestimating historical cyclicality, as well as the risks of overcapacity and price pressures. This rally may be unsustainable in the short term. For example, SanDisk and Micron both have 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) values above 70, which some technical analysts consider an overbought signal for the stocks.

USD/CAD sees bids near 1.3500 on a risk aversion theme, as oil looks to retake $80.00

Alina Haynes

Dec 28, 2022 11:24

USD:CAD.png 

 

After slipping to about 1.3500 in the early Asian session, the USD/CAD pair has gained purchasing activity. The Canadian currency has risen as the risk-aversion theme takes pace over the tumultuous holiday week. After exhibiting a significant decrease on Tuesday, the major currency has shown signs of recovery as rising oil prices have boosted the Canadian Dollar.

 

Due to the absence of trustworthy triggers for decisive currency market changes, the risk profile is highly uncertain. In addition, the market sentiment was unaffected by China's decision to loosen restrictions on outbound tourists. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 remained under pressure as tech-savvy corporations under significant heat. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has gone flat near 103.80 after failing to surpass the crucial 104.00 resistance level.

 

In the meantime, the US Treasury bonds are affected by the risk aversion theme triggered by illiquid markets due to the holiday week. The yields on 10-year US Treasuries have increased to roughly 3.85%.

 

The Canadian Dollar hogged the focus on rising oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures have dipped little but have continued their upside trajectory and are forecast to recapture the critical resistance of $80.00 led by rising supply worries and China’s progress towards reopening of the economy despite a surge in Covid cases.

 

After Russian President Vladimir Putin signed an order restricting the sale of Russian oil to countries that implemented the oil price ceiling, supply concerns intensified.

 

Thomas M. Mertens, a researcher from the Economic Research Department of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of San Francisco, created a recession predictor based on macroeconomic time series, especially the unemployed unemployment rate. He claimed that no forecasts today predict an approaching recession in the following two quarters. Moreover, the unemployment rate does not yet signal an imminent recession.