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On January 9th, RJ Gallo, Deputy Chief Investment Officer of Fixed Income at Federated Hermes, stated in a report that at the start of 2026, both real and implied volatility in the US Treasury market has fallen to a four-year low, returning to levels typically seen before the pandemic. Disruptive factors over the past four years include inflation surging to multi-decade highs; the Federal Reserves rapid tightening of policy to suppress inflation; the Silicon Valley banking crisis; Trumps tariff announcements; and the Feds eventual easing of monetary policy amid slowing job growth. He stated, "So far, recent events have not matched the drivers of these economic uncertainties, which is good news for us."Frances November industrial production figures will be released in ten minutes.January 9th - German industrial output unexpectedly rose for the third consecutive month, further suggesting that Europes largest economy may be on the verge of recovery. Data from the German Federal Statistical Office showed that industrial output rose 0.8% month-on-month in November, exceeding market expectations, with Octobers revised increase at 2%. This growth was primarily driven by Germanys crucial automotive industry, while machinery-related companies also saw growth, helping to offset a decline in energy production. The data also showed an unexpectedly large jump in factory orders, which analysts believe is the beginning of the effects of the fiscal stimulus measures prepared by the Merz government. The slump in traditional growth drivers has led to significant job losses in German manufacturing. Now, the recovery is expected to be driven by domestic demand, and this weeks data seems to confirm this.The chart shows that at 23:00 Beijing time on January 9th, there will be large foreign exchange options contracts for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, etc. There are 3 contracts with strike prices exceeding 1 billion. Please manage your risks.The Ukrainian Foreign Minister stated that Russias repeated claims that Ukraine attacked Putins residence to justify the attack are "absurd."

AUD/USD continues to swing near 0.6860 despite positive Australian employment data

Alina Haynes

Dec 15, 2022 11:35

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The AUD/USD currency pair continues to be affected by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision (Fed). The Australian dollar has continued to bounce at 0.6860 despite the Australian Bureau of Statistics' announcement of a significant improvement in Employment Change data. The Australian economy has created 64K new jobs, as opposed to the 19K expected and the 32.2K seen earlier. The unemployment rate has remained unchanged at 3.4%.

 

Previously, 12-month inflation forecasts for Australian consumers declined to 5.2% from 5.7% and 6.0% in the prior edition. Reserve Bank of Australia will be delighted by a considerable decline in inflationary pressures (RBA). Philip Lowe, the RBA's governor, has been tightening monetary policy to reduce the CPI (CPI).

 

Notably, a drop in one-year inflation expectations will not compel the RBA to abandon further interest rate hikes, given that the route to achieving a 2% inflation rate is not yet complete. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could boost the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps).

 

A change in the Federal Reserve's (Fed) current monetary policy plan caused volatility in the US Dollar. After the Fed announced a lesser rate hike of 50 basis points (bps) and abandoned the 75 basis point rate hike cycle, the US Dollar Index (DXY) plummeted to a six-month low of 103.49. As the fight against inflation will take some time, the Federal Reserve has raised the peak interest rate to 5.1% by the end of CY2023.


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