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According to futures news on November 19th, as of the week ending November 15th, Japanese commercial crude oil inventories increased by 24,205 kiloliters from the previous week to 10,403,206 kiloliters. Japanese gasoline inventories decreased by 1,025 kiloliters from the previous week to 1,650,289 kiloliters. Japanese kerosene inventories decreased by 128,388 kiloliters from the previous week to 2,536,518 kiloliters. The average operating rate of Japanese refineries was 89.9%, compared to 90.6% the previous week.According to the Wall Street Journal, U.S. Army Secretary Driscoll plans to meet with Russian officials later in the day.On November 19th, the overnight SHIBOR was 1.4200%, down 10.50 basis points; the 7-day SHIBOR was 1.4870%, down 3.10 basis points; the 14-day SHIBOR was 1.5680%, up 1.80 basis points; the 1-month SHIBOR was 1.5200%, unchanged from the previous trading day; and the 3-month SHIBOR was 1.5800%, unchanged from the previous trading day.On November 19th, a Citi research report indicated that Xiaomis (01810.HK) adjusted net profit for the third quarter exceeded both the banks and market expectations, primarily due to in-line non-operating revenue and better-than-expected gross margins in the IoT, internet, and electric vehicle sectors. However, operating expenses were higher than anticipated. Management emphasized that Xiaomi has secured memory supply for 2026 and will prioritize maintaining average selling price and market share given memory price increases. Furthermore, management expects full-year electric vehicle deliveries to exceed 350,000 units, but the vehicle purchase tax subsidy policy will impact next years electric vehicle gross margin. The banks latest forecast projects smartphone shipments of 170 million and 160 million units in 2025 and 2026 respectively, with gross margins of 11.3% and 8.9%; electric vehicle deliveries are expected to remain at 400,000 and 700,000 units, with gross margins of 25.2% and 22.2%. The target price has been lowered to HK$50, while maintaining a buy rating. The bank remains optimistic about the long-term prospects of the IoT and electric vehicle businesses, but memory price increases may put short-term pressure on the share price.On November 19th, a Citi research report indicated that AAC Technologies (02018.HK) has signed an agreement to acquire shares and other equity securities of DispelixOy, an AR diffraction waveguide technology company. The transaction is expected to be completed in the first half of 2026. AAC has been collaborating with Dispelix on a strategic R&D partnership for several years, jointly developing next-generation AR devices with several leading OEM customers and collaborating with major mobile platform suppliers to develop next-generation reference design platforms. The report believes that this acquisition will expand AACs product portfolio and solution capabilities in the XR field, covering acoustics, haptic feedback, microelectromechanical systems (MEMS), camera lenses and lens modules, structural components, and waveguide technology. The report currently gives AAC a target price of HK$56 and a buy rating.

NZD/USD drops to 0.6440 due to New Zealand's weakness Pre-Fed warning probes bears: HYEFU, RBNZ

Alina Haynes

Dec 14, 2022 11:36

NZD:USD.png 

 

In order to justify a new intraday low of 0.6440 on Wednesday morning, the New Zealand dollar (NZD/USD) points to New Zealand's (NZ) poor Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU). The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) statements and the cautious atmosphere leading up to the important Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting, however, have put a damper on recent pair selling.

 

According to Reuters, the New Zealand Treasury expects the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to increase at a negative rate for three quarters of the current fiscal year 2023. (CY23). Additionally, according to the report, New Zealand will have a budget deficit of NZ$3.63 billion ($2.34 billion) for the fiscal year that ends on June 30, 2023, which is lower than the NZ$6.63 billion deficit forecast in the country's budget released in May.

 

The RBNZ crossed wires through Reuters after the negative announcements, saying that "Even with the predicted decline in the period ahead, it is envisaged that the level of employment will remain strong." The central bank of New Zealand also stated that both the current and expected rates of inflation must be kept under control.

 

However, it should be noted that recent worries coming from China, mostly because of internal and external pessimism on the Covid situation, seem to favor the NZD/USD to hold its gains from the previous day. The latest spike in daily Covid cases has led International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva to predict worse economic development for China. Additionally, Bloomberg stated that the COVID-19 outbreak caused the Chinese leadership to cancel the discussion on economic policy. In 2023, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) revised down its estimate of China's GDP growth from 4.5% in September to 4.3%.

 

After the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November dropped to 7.1% from 7.3% and 7.8% earlier, the US Dollar Index (DXY) decreased on Wednesday. Additionally, the Core CPI, also known as the CPI excluding food and energy, fell to 6.0% YoY during the designated month, below both market forecasts of 6.1% and previous readings of 6.3%. "Traders of futures tied to the Federal Reserve's policy rate upped their bets that the U.S. central bank will delay its interest-rate increase pace further in the first quarter of 2019," according to Reuters, after the release of the data.

 

In light of this, Wall Street ended the day up, but the S&P 500 Futures lack a clear trend. Additionally, US Treasury bond rates haven't changed in three days despite dropping to their lowest level in a week.

 

Future NZD/USD price movement may be constrained by pre-Fed concerns, although bears may sustain optimism at the multi-day high if they expect a surprise hawkish Fed action.

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