• English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
On December 12th, several major German economic research institutions released their winter forecast reports on the 11th, indicating that the German economy is expected to grow by only 0.1% in 2025, a further downward revision from the 0.2% growth forecast in the autumn, due to factors such as a significant decline in exports to the United States. The reports stated that the continued large-scale tariffs imposed by the United States are putting pressure on the global economy and trade, while the German economy is undergoing profound structural changes. The reports project German economic growth of 0.8% and 1.1% in 2026 and 2027 respectively, both down 0.5 percentage points from previous forecasts.On December 12th, Citigroup interest rate strategists stated in a report that, based on inquiries with clients, the market is highly focused on the extent to which Eurozone government bond supply will be front-loaded in 2026. They believe this focus is "understandable." The report anticipates that 2026 will continue the usual supply pattern, with most annual bond issuances completed in the first quarter. Citigroup projects first-quarter government bond supply to reach €495 billion, approximately 34% of the estimated total financing demand for the following year.On December 12th, the General Office of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the "Implementation Plan for the Civil Explosives Industry to Implement the National Intelligent Manufacturing Standard System Construction Guidelines." The plan proposes that by 2030, a total of 30 intelligent manufacturing standards for the civil explosives industry will be formulated or revised, establishing a relatively complete intelligent manufacturing standard set for the industry. Combining the development trends of intelligent manufacturing technology with the practical foundation of the civil explosives industry, the plan promotes the exploration of typical application scenarios of advanced intelligent manufacturing technologies in the industry, adhering to the principle of "overall planning and prioritizing urgent needs," and orderly advancing the development of industry standards.December 12 – Indonesia is expected to reach a trade agreement with the United States by the end of the year, with both sides facing increasing pressure to resolve differences that could jeopardize bilateral relations. Jakartas Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs, Airlangga Hattato, stated on Friday that Indonesia will send a delegation to Washington next week for consultations. This comes after senior officials from both sides "agreed to finalize the consensus reached by the two leaders on July 22." In July, the US and Indonesia reached a trade framework agreement; however, US officials subsequently claimed Indonesia had broken its promises, while Indonesia rejected US demands, fearing they would undermine its independence, particularly in key mineral and energy sectors. Previous reports indicated that Indonesia particularly opposed a clause in the agreement that would allow the US to cancel the agreement if Indonesia signed it in a way deemed detrimental to US interests.December 12th - It was learned today from the State Administration for Market Regulation that in the first three quarters of this year, market regulators organized special campaigns such as intellectual property law enforcement to further strengthen governance in key areas, key commodities, and key markets, and actively leverage the deterrent power of administrative law enforcement. In the first three quarters, these special campaigns investigated and handled nearly 390,000 related cases, including 27,000 cases of trademark infringement and patent counterfeiting. Approximately 54,000 enforcement actions were carried out against key entities where infringement and counterfeiting are frequent.

US Dollar Index Stabilizes at 103.70; Attention Shifts to US Inflation

Daniel Rogers

May 10, 2022 10:07

In the Asian session, the US dollar index (DXY) is fluctuating within a narrow range of 103.58-103.77 as investors anticipate the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), which will determine the asset's future path. Wednesday will see the release of the US CPI, and investors anticipate a decline. The preliminary estimate for the US CPI is 8.1%, compared to the multi-year high of 8.5% recorded last month. 

Positive NFP versus Lower Inflation Predictions

NFP reached 428k last week. It increased the likelihood that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates by 75 basis points (bps) in June. On the other hand, a lower inflation estimate suggests that recent quantitative measures are preventing inflation from surging, and a similar occurrence could force the Fed to adopt a less aggressive hawkish approach. Therefore, investors are uncertain whether to bet with or against the DXY, which has caused the asset to move sideways.

Fed's Bombastic Speech

According to an interview with Bloomberg, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic stated on Monday that the Fed's most recent 50 basis point rate hike was a "aggressive" move and that the Fed can maintain this pace. By the end of 2023, a Fed policymaker anticipates an interest rate range between 2.0 and 2.5 percent.

 

Key events this week: Consumer Price Index (CPI), Initial Jobless Claims, and Producers Price Index (PPI). Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI).

 

On the back burner are the Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks, China's CPI, and Christine Lagarde's address as President of the European Central Bank (ECB).

Spot Dollar Index

image.png