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On August 7, the New York Federal Reserves latest monthly survey showed that consumers confidence in the Federal Reserves long-term inflation management has declined. The data showed that consumers expectations for inflation over the next five years were 2.9%, up from 2.6% in the June survey. Short-term inflation expectations remained largely unchanged, with expectations for the next year rising to 3.1% from 3% in June, and expectations for the next three years remaining stable at 3%. In other aspects, consumer confidence remained good in July. Fewer consumers (37%) believed that the unemployment rate would be higher in a year, the lowest proportion since January. Consumers believe that if necessary, they are 51% likely to find a new job in the next three months, up from 49.6% in June. Consumers said they expect government debt to grow by 9.1% over the next 12 months, up from 7.3% a month ago.Bank of England Governor Bailey: I will not prejudge the Bank of Englands decision on the pace of quantitative tightening in October. The steepening of the yield curve is a global phenomenon.New York Fed: The three-year expected inflation rate remained unchanged at 3.0% in July; the five-year expected inflation rate was 2.9% in July, higher than 2.6% in June.New York Fed: Home price increase expectations remained unchanged at 3% in July, and consumers believe it will be easier to obtain credit in the future.The New York Fed’s one-year inflation forecast for the United States in July was 3.09%, compared with 3.02% in the previous month.

USD/CAD Price Analysis: Bulls Target Annual High at 1.2965

Alina Haynes

May 09, 2022 10:23

During Monday's Asian session, USD/CAD extends the previous week's bounce from 1.2813 by rising to a new high of 2022. In spite of this, the Loonie pair is up 0.20 percent at 1.2931 as of press time.

 

A successful breach of the horizontal area including numerous tops marked since September 2021, about 1.2895, gives USD/CAD buyers reason to be optimistic. The lack of overbought RSI readings further supports the rising momentum.

 

Consequently, the most recent run-up has additional capacity to the north before hitting a speed-breaker, which is the December 2021 high at 1.2965.

 

The USD/CAD bulls will be encouraged by a rising trend line from August 2021, near 1.2985, which will precede the psychological level of 1.3000.

 

In the meanwhile, pullbacks may initially target the previous horizontal resistance, which is now support around 1.2895, prior to testing the upwardly sloping support line from April 21 near 1.2760.

 

Even if the USD/CAD price falls below 1.2760, bears can wait for a clear break below the 100-day moving average (DMA) at 1.2682 to gain conviction.

USD/CAD

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