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Futures News, September 15th: London spot gold prices fluctuated higher on September 15th, reaching a new all-time high, up 1.59% on a weekly basis to $3,643.06 per ounce. Gold prices fluctuated at high levels during the week. While inflation data prompted a rate cut, the cut was already largely priced in. Meanwhile, US inflation remained contained, with no reflationary expectations. With the Federal Reserves interest rate cut expected next week, the market may react with caution, with increased short-term volatility and a degree of uncertainty surrounding the market. However, the macroeconomic logic for golds upward trend remains intact, and with renewed geopolitical uncertainty, buying on dips may remain the primary strategy. US Treasury Secretary Bensont stated that the US economy inherited by Trump is in worse shape than reported, and that the Federal Reserve should recalibrate interest rates. Fed Chairman Powell has again become a target of criticism from the Trump administration, with Trump again calling for a swift rate cut. The US August CPI was in line with expectations, while the PPI unexpectedly fell sharply. Combined with the dismal employment data, market expectations of a renewed US recession are swirling, making a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve almost certain. Market focus is on whether the combination of low inflationary pressures and poor employment conditions will lead to more rate cuts, and the market is awaiting comments from Fed officials. Geopolitically, Israel attacked Hamas targets in Qatar this week. Russian government spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated on the 12th that peace talks between Russia and Ukraine have been suspended, but negotiators from both sides remain open to communication through existing channels.A Yomiuri Shimbun poll in Japan showed that in the Liberal Democratic Party election, Sanae Takaichi led with 29% support, while Shinjiro Koizumi had 25% support.1. The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.59%, the S&P 500 down 0.05%, and the Nasdaq up 0.44%, reaching new all-time highs. Merck and Sherwin-Williams fell over 2%, leading the Dow lower. The Wind US Tech 7 Index rose 1.14%, with Tesla up over 7% and Apple up over 1%. Chinese concept stocks were mixed, with JinkoSolar up over 6% and Douyu down over 4%. 2. U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 2-year Treasury yield up 0.99 basis points to 3.549%, the 3-year Treasury yield up 1.94 basis points to 3.527%, the 5-year Treasury yield up 3.81 basis points to 3.633%, the 10-year Treasury yield up 4.57 basis points to 4.070%, and the 30-year Treasury yield up 2.69 basis points to 4.681%. 3. International precious metal futures generally closed higher. COMEX gold futures rose 0.19% to $3,680.70 per ounce, a weekly gain of 0.75%. COMEX silver futures rose 1.26% to $42.68 per ounce, a weekly gain of 2.71%. 4. International oil prices rose slightly. The main contract for US crude oil closed up 0.37% at $62.60 per barrel, a weekly gain of 1.18%. The main contract for Brent crude oil rose 0.77% to $66.88 per barrel, a weekly gain of 2.11%. 5. London base metals rose across the board, with LME zinc futures up 1.93% at $2,956.00/ton, up 3.32% for the week; LME nickel futures up 1.52% at $15,380.00/ton, up 0.95% for the week; LME lead futures up 1.13% at $2,019.00/ton, up 1.71% for the week; LME aluminum futures up 1.03% at $2,701.00/ton, up 3.86% for the week; LME tin futures up 0.74% at $34,955.00/ton, up 1.87% for the week; and LME copper futures up 0.13% at $10,064.50/ton, up 1.69% for the week.Market News: South Koreas trade minister will visit the United States on Monday for tariff negotiations.US President Trump: The Federal Reserve is expected to "cut interest rates significantly."

Two Trades to Watch: CAC, EUR/USD

Cameron Murphy

Apr 12, 2022 10:49


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The CAC is climbing today, along with its European rivals, despite the fact that the French index has outperformed its peers this week.


The CAC has dropped more than 3% this week, compared to a 2% drop in the DAX and a 0.5 percent increase in the FTSE.


The CAC's weakness might be due to mounting anxieties over the forthcoming French presidential elections, with the market suddenly waking up to the possibility of Marine Le Pen, the far-right contender, winning.


Macron remains the favorite, but the polling margin has narrowed significantly since the two clashed in the last round of the 2017 election.

Where does the CAC go from here?

The CAC continued its rally from its low of 5760 on March 7 until hitting resistance just outside the 200 sma at 6830 and reverting downward.


The price fell below the 50 SMA before finding support around 6450, which is presently acting as a backstop. The RSI is at a neutral level, indicating that the market is consolidating.


Traders may be on the lookout for a breakthrough. Buyers will be looking for a move above the 50 sma of 6650 to expose the 200 sma of 6780 and a retest of the 6830 high to build a new high.


A fall below 6450 might drive a selloff towards 6260, the July 21 low, according to sellers.


For the seventh day in a row, the EUR/USD has fallen.


For the seventh day in a row, the EUR/USD has fallen. Even the ECB's more hawkish minutes from yesterday failed to raise the euro.


The euro is losing ground as investors price in the possibility of a Le Pen victory after she narrowed the deficit in the polls this week.


Today's Eurozone data isn't very noteworthy; nevertheless, ECB President Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak.


The dollar is supported by forecasts of a more hawkish Fed, as well as positive employment data from the previous day.


Unemployment claims dropped to 266k from 171k, the lowest level in 50 years. There is no high-impact data from the United States today.

Where does the EUR/USD pair go from here?

EUR/USD retreated from the 50 sma, dropping below 1.10, a crucial psychological mark as well as the bottom band of a multi-month declining channel.


While it stays outside of oversold territory, the RSI signals to additional falls. 1.08, the 2022 low, provides support ahead of 1.0730, the April 2021 low.


Before reaching 1.10, any recovery would have to surge over 1.0940, the March 28 low.