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On September 15th, Pop Mart (09992.HK) plunged nearly 9% on Monday, its biggest drop since April, hitting its lowest level in over a month, after JPMorgan Chase downgraded its rating to neutral, citing a "lack of catalysts and unattractive valuation." This followed social media posts pointing to weak demand for its new "SKULLPANDA" product, and JPMorgans downgrade heightened market concerns about waning popularity. JPMorgan analysts Kevin Yin and others stated in a report: "Current valuations already reflect perfect expectations. Any minor fundamental disappointment or negative media coverage (such as falling pre-owned prices or third-party licensing issues) could trigger a share price decline." Although the stock has still risen over 180% this year, its 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio is now close to 23 times.On September 15th, the market generally expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, but uncertainty remained about the direction of the policy once it was implemented. Marc Giannoni, Barclays chief US economist, stated that with inflation remaining subdued, the FOMC will judge that downside risks to achieving its employment goals are increasing. He added that the Feds economic projections remained largely unchanged, but the dot plot indicated three rate cuts (each 25 basis points) this year, one each in 2026 and 2027, while the median long-term interest rate forecast remained unchanged at 3.0%.Yunfeng Financial (00376.HK) rose more than 18% and was recently approved to provide virtual asset trading services.Hong Kong stocks opened low and ended high, with the Hang Seng Tech Index up 1% and the Hang Seng Index up 0.23%. Bilibili (09626.HK) rose more than 5%, leading the constituent stocks.On September 15th, Nvidia announced that it is considering adopting TSMCs most advanced process technology, the A16 process, which will enter mass production in the second half of next year and is expected to be used in its future Feynman architecture. This process will utilize backside power supply technology. This will be the first time that AI applications will dominate TSMCs most advanced process technology.

US open: Futures fall ahead of Fed minutes

Cory Russell

Apr 08, 2022 11:46

Futures in the United States

Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average are down 0.75 percent at 34390.


Futures on the S&P 500 are down 1% at 4480.


Nasdaq futures are now trading at 14582, down 1.64 percent.


In Europe, the FTSE is down -43% at 7560.


At 14100, the Dax is down 2%.


At 3828, the Euro Stoxx is down 2.34 percent.


Find out more about indices trading.


Stocks have taken a knock due to Fed concerns.


Ahead of the FOMC minutes, US markets are expected to begin lower, extending losses from the previous session.


Following increased predictions of a more hawkish Federal Reserve, Wall Street finished lower yesterday and is still under pressure today. In order to reign in soaring inflation, Fed Governor Brainard hinted at higher interest rate rises and a quicker runoff on the balance sheet.


The market is putting in a 76.6 percent chance of a 50 basis point rate rise in May, according to the CME Fed Funds. Rates are expected to be raised by 225 basis points before the end of the year, according to the market.


Yesterday, high-growth tech trailed behind its big counterparts, with the NASDAQ100 losing roughly 2.2 percent. Today, the NASDAQ is expected to underperform once again.


The focus now shifts to the publication of the minutes from the March Federal Open Market Committee meeting. This was the first time the Fed increased interest rates since 2018, and it might provide further insight into the future path of interest rate rises and the pace at which the balance sheet would be decreased.


Separately, reports about Russia continue to dominate the news cycle, pushing up oil prices. New sanctions have been imposed on Russia in response to the war crimes perpetrated by Russian military in Ukraine.


In business news, JetBlue Airways revealed that it has made an unsolicited $3.6 billion proposal to Spirit Airlines in order to provide the four main US airlines more competition.

Where does the S&P500 go from here?

After recovering from its March 15 low of 4140, the S&P500 hit resistance around 4630 and has been moving downward since. The price has fallen below the 100 SMA, and the MACD has crossed to the negative side, giving sellers optimism for further downside.


Support is indicated at 4425, the 50 SMA, and the high of March 3. A break below this level might go to 4345, the high from March 11 and the low from March 17. Any rebound, on the other hand, would have to surge above the 100 SMA at 4535 in order to reach 4630, the March high.


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