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On April 19th, the Victorian government announced that all public transport will be free in May, with fares halved for the remainder of the year. The measure will cost approximately AU$432 million (US$310 million). This move aims to increase support for consumers affected by high fuel prices, exacerbated by the Middle East wars leading to soaring fuel costs and a fire at one of Australias last two refineries, further fueling concerns about fuel supplies.The Iranian Martyrs Foundation reports that the war between the US, Israel, and Iran has resulted in the deaths of 3,468 Iranians.On April 19th, according to Hubei Daily, on April 16th, the V1000 passenger-type eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) prototype made its first public appearance after rolling off the assembly line at the Wuhan Xunqi Technology Co., Ltd. workshop in the Wuhan Economic and Technological Development Zone Low-Altitude Economy Industrial Park, attracting the attention of visitors. Reporters at the scene observed that the V1000 passenger-type aircrafts appearance is closer to that of a passenger plane, with windows and added seats. Xu Zhilin, chief engineer of the Wuhan Xunqi Technology project, said, "The V1000 passenger-type aircraft is expected to make its maiden flight in June this year. Currently, airworthiness certification work is underway, and it is expected to be officially launched to the market around 2030."On April 19th, Unitree Robotics officially announced that in the Beijing Humanoid Robot Marathon qualifying race on April 16th, Unitree H1 (23-year revised version) autonomously completed the 1.9-kilometer multi-curve course in 4 minutes and 13 seconds, breaking the human 1500-meter world record (calculated proportionally).US-Israel-Iran Conflict: ① Iran 1. Iran claims missile and drone production continues. 2. Irans Chief Justice: The enemy must pay war reparations. 3. Iran announces suspension of ticket sales; flights must be approved on a case-by-case basis. 4. Irans Civil Aviation Organization announces the reopening of some Iranian airspace. 5. Iranian Army Commander: The failure of the operation in Isfahan province was the main reason for the enemys ceasefire. 6. Irans First Vice President: Trumps remarks stem from his delusions and lies; there is no need to respond. 7. Satellite images show fires at two Iranian oil refineries, just days after multiple crude oil storage tanks at these refineries were damaged. 8. According to Iranian media Mizan: Iran will not open the Strait of Hormuz while the US blockade remains in place; Iran is reviewing recent US proposals. 9. According to Iranian media: Irans First Vice President stated that Iran is responsible for the management of the Strait of Hormuz. Either they (the US) give us rights at the negotiating table, or we will go to war. 10. Iran claims US-Israel attacks have killed 3,468 Iranians. 11. According to Irans Press TV: Iranian commanders claim to have shot down 170 US and Israeli drones during the war. ②US 1. US military: 21 ships have turned back to Iran as instructed by the US military. 2. US media: Trump convened a White House Situation Room meeting on the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and US-Iran negotiations, attended by the Vice President, Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense, Secretary of the Treasury, and other senior officials. 3. US Central Command: The guided-missile destroyer USS Pinckney (DDG 91) patrolled the area to support the blockade operation. This blockade has completely blocked maritime economic and trade activities in and out of Iran. 4. According to the New York Times: US intelligence assessments suggest that Iran still retains about 40% of its pre-war drone inventory and has dug underground missile cities during the ceasefire. It currently possesses about 60% of its missile launchers and possibly as much as 70% of its missile inventory. ③Israel 1. The Israeli military established a new "Yellow Line" in southern Lebanon, aiming to implement the "Gaza Model." ④Strait of Hormuz 1. Trump stated that there will be no tolls in the Strait of Hormuz. 2. Several ships attempted to pass through the Strait of Hormuz but ultimately turned back. 3. Maritime News: Iranian Revolutionary Guard opened fire on oil tankers attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz. 4. US Central Command: Since the blockade began, 23 ships have turned back at the instruction of the US military. 5. Five Iranian oil tankers attempted to break through the US blockade by concealing navigation data. US destroyers forced three Iranian oil tankers to return and are pursuing two more. 6. Indian Government: The Indian Foreign Secretary expressed deep concern over the shooting incident involving two Indian-flagged vessels in the Strait of Hormuz earlier today. 7. According to Axios: A US Department of Defense official stated that the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard has launched at least three attacks on merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz since Saturday morning (local time). 8. Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard: The Strait of Hormuz has been blocked from the evening of the 18th until the US blockade is lifted. 9. Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has come to a standstill again. ⑤ Ceasefire Negotiations 1. Islamabad traffic control escalates in preparation for US-Iran negotiations. 2. Iran is reviewing new US proposals and has not yet responded. 3. Iran stated it has not yet agreed to hold the next round of negotiations with the US. 4. Trump responded to the inconsistency in US and Iranian messages: because Iran also has people it needs to appease. 5. Advisor to Irans Supreme Leader: Internal unity and the resistance front cannot be used as bargaining chips. 6. Trump warned that if negotiations fail, he might acquire Irans uranium stockpile in a "more unfriendly way." 7. On the 17th, Trump stated regarding Iran that he had just received "some pretty good news, mainly that Iran will not possess nuclear weapons." 8. Trump: If an agreement cannot be reached with Iran by the 22nd, the ceasefire may not be extended. 9. Trump: The US and Iran are in dialogue, and there will be news before the end of today. Iran cannot blackmail us by closing the Strait again. 10. The Iranian Parliament Speaker stated that there is still a long way to go before reaching a final agreement with the US. ⑥ Other situations: 1. The Pakistani delegation concluded its visit to Iran. 2. UNIFIL was attacked in southern Lebanon, resulting in 1 death and 3 injuries. 3. The US announced sanctions against 7 commanders of Iraqi militia groups. 4. International Maritime Organization: Approximately 20,000 seafarers are stranded in the Persian Gulf. 5. Iraq claims oil exports from all oil fields will resume within days. 6. British Foreign Secretary urges full resumption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. 7. Hezbollah leader: Will respond to violations of the ceasefire agreement. 8. Israeli military says its attacks on militants in several Lebanese regions are "unrestricted by the ceasefire." 9. Hezbollah denies attacking UNIFIL soldiers in Lebanon. 10. Rosatom CEO: Rosatom is prepared to assist Iran in transporting enriched uranium. 11. IATA: Flight cancellations in Europe could begin as early as the end of next month; countries need to coordinate responses. 12. Élysée Palace: Macron, after speaking with the Lebanese president and prime minister, stated that the attack on UNIFIL soldiers in Lebanon is unacceptable. 13. Lloyds Ship Daily reports that the average price of ultra-low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) for marine propulsion has fallen to $856 per ton. The price is down 19% from the wartime peak in the Middle East, but is still 73% higher than the average price in January and February.

European Open: FTSE Aims For a 5th Bullish Week, USD/CAD in Focus

Skylar Shaw

Apr 12, 2022 10:55

The ASX 200 index in Australia increased by 33.4 points (0.45 percent) to 7,476.20.


The Nikkei 225 index in Japan has gained 87.06 points (0.25 percent) and now trades at 34,583.57.


The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong has dropped -124.54 points (0.57%) and is now trading at 21,684.44.


The A50 Index in China has increased by 33.08 points (0.24 percent) to 13,884.16.


The FTSE 100 futures in the United Kingdom are now up 50 points (0.67 percent), with the cash market expected to start at 7,601.81.


Futures on the Euro STOXX 50 are now up 32 points (0.86 percent), with the cash market expected to start at 3,834.01.


The DAX futures in Germany are now up 96 points (0.68 percent), with the cash market expected to open at 14,174.


Futures in the United States: The DJI futures are now down -10 points (-0.03 percent )


Futures on the S&P 500 are now up 2 points (0.01 percent )


Futures for the Nasdaq 100 are now down -2 points (-0.04 percent )

Market Internals (FTSE)

On the weekly chart, if the FTSE closes around 7550 today, it will create a little bearish pinbar. It would also be the market's fifth straight positive week, and the first of the year. However, the FTSE hasn't had more than five positive weeks since May 2018, so the chances of a rebound next week are slim. Especially considering, as bulls lose speed, volatility into recent highs has been the lowest in the last five weeks.


08 April 2022, FTSE 350: 4230.52 (-0.45%).


16 stocks hit new 52-week highs, while 7 hit new lows.


89 (25.36 percent) equities rose, while 250 (71.23 percent) fell.


Outperformers:


Hochschild Mining PLC (HOCM.L) is up 13.77 percent, while BAE Systems PLC is up 5.16 percent (BAES.L)


Capricorn Energy PLC is up 4.72 percent (CNE.L)


Underperformers: Ferrexpo PLC (FXPO.L) -42.6 percent; Polymetal International PLC (POLYP.L) -37.8 percent; EVRAZ plc -30.4 percent (EVRE.L)

 

At 13:30 BST, the job situation in Canada will be discussed.


Employment in Canada is now at 5.5 percent, the lowest level since June 2019. Even yet, if it matches projections and falls to 5.4 percent, it would be the lowest it has been in at least 48 years.


Expectations for another big job gain are modest, with the consensus hovering around 80k, a long cry from the 336.6k it printed in February. Still, since that fears of nuclear war have (hopefully) diminished compared to a month ago, another solid report might tilt the scales back towards a BOC (Bank of Canada) rate rise this month.


Prior to the jobs report in Canada, the USD/CAD is hovering at resistance.


While currency and commodities market volatility remained minimal overnight, we observed a continuation of yesterday's developments. For the eighth day in a row, the dollar is higher (while the euro is down). In today's Asian Open report, we mentioned a probable bull flag on GBP/AUD, and a similar setup is emerging on GBP/CAD, albeit we'd need to see a break above the 1.6473 high to invalidate the bearish channel and confirm the flag.

 

The possibility for USD/CAD to mean reversion on the daily chart was highlighted on Tuesday, and it has not disappointed, climbing for two days in a row and hitting our top bullish objective. Prices are stabilizing at the highs on the four-hour chart, as the monthly pivot point, weekly R1, and 200-bar eMA offer resistance.


Given that markets are already pricing in a 50-bps raise from the Bank of Canada this month, a shockingly weak jobs data for Canada might see the pair break decisively higher (and may also provide the more volatile move). However, if the jobs data is greater than predicted, USD/CAD may retreat from its recent highs. As a result, the zone between 1.2580 and 1.2610 is crucial to monitor.


Regardless of today's conclusion, considering the recovery from 1.24 after its powerful bullish pinbar on Tuesday, we may see this one break higher in the future.

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