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June 17, Swissquote market strategist Ipek Ozkadzia said that efforts to ease tensions in the Middle East appear to be one-sided. While Iran appears to be signaling restraint, Trump urges Iran to withdraw and Israel vows to continue attacks. This is a one-sided downgrade at best and tilts the risk of energy markets and safe-haven assets to the upside. Global energy supplies remain fragile and it doesnt take much to shake the physical flow of oil and reverse market sentiment in an instant.World Gold Council: The survey shows that 73% of the central banks surveyed believe that the share of the US dollar in global reserves will "decline moderately" or "decline significantly" in the next five years.Ukrainian President Zelensky: Russia launched more than 440 drones and 32 missiles in overnight attacks.On June 17, Capital Economics analyst Marcel Thieliant said that the Bank of Japan revealed little about its interest rate outlook at its latest meeting. As widely expected by the market, the Bank of Japan kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.5% and decided to reduce its purchases of Japanese government bonds from April 2026. This is expected to cause the share of outstanding Japanese government bonds held by the Bank of Japan to fall from 50% now to 42% by March 2027. Thieliant pointed out that the Bank of Japans assessment of economic conditions and outlook wording have hardly changed from April. Therefore, we need to wait for the press conference held by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda in the afternoon for more information.Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold a monetary policy press conference in ten minutes.

The USD/CNH Exchange Rate Fluctuates Around 6.9000 As Focus Shifts To PBoC Policy

Daniel Rogers

Mar 17, 2023 13:53

Throughout the Asian session, the USD/CNH has maintained a range near 6.9000. Before taking action on the main, investors are awaiting the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) interest rate decision on Monday.

 

After a strong recovery on Thursday, S&P500 futures are exhibiting minimal losses in the Asian session, indicating a rise in market participants' risk appetite. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has escaped the tight consolidation between 104.30 and 104.60. Investors' skepticism regarding the Federal Reserve's (Fed) prospective monetary policy has diminished the appeal of the USD Index in the wake of a decline in U.S. inflation and escalating banking turmoil.

 

Following an optimistic recovery in 500-US stock basket futures, lethargic demand for US government bonds has increased the returns on the same. The yields on 10-year Treasury notes have surpassed 3.59 percent.

 

In the future, emphasis will be placed on the release of the PBoC's monetary policy decision. Economists from the UOB Group speculate that the PBoC may reduce the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at its March 20 meeting. The 1Y loan prime rate (LPR) could fall to 3.55 percent and the 5Y loan prime rate (LPR) could fall to 4.20 percent after the National People's Congress (NPC). This is due to the need for additional measures to support the actual economy and the wish to increase housing demand.

 

In addition, an upward revision of China's projected Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would strengthen the Chinese Yuan. Goldman Sachs has increased its GDP forecast for China for 2023 from 5.5% to 6%.