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Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock: There is a general consensus that the neutral interest rate has risen.On September 18th, Nick Timiraos, a senior Federal Reserve monetary policy reporter for the Wall Street Journal, wrote that while Trump has consistently criticized the Fed for keeping interest rates too high, he claimed that he had endorsed the decision during a phone call with Fed Chairman Warsh a few days before the decision was made, following the Feds rate hike this week. According to sources, Trumps call with Warsh was unexpected for many of the presidents close advisors. This "truce" clearly indicates that Warsh has temporarily reversed the previous tensions where the White House viewed the Fed as an adversary. The risk is that this situation may only last until the Fed raises rates again. A senior government official stated that if the Fed decides to raise rates again in October (before the midterm elections), Warsh may find himself under even closer scrutiny from Trump and his advisors. Trumps description of a hostile Federal Reserve committee may leave investors wondering whether Warsh is leading the Fed or being manipulated by it.Futures News, September 18th: Overnight oil prices continued their decline. Domestic fuel oil producers lacked confidence in future trading, with market transactions driven by immediate needs. Downstream risk aversion intensified, and refinery shipments were sluggish. It is expected that fuel oil trading will remain stable in some areas today, while others will still see a narrow decline.Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock: In the overall situation, the decline in house prices is not too significant.Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock: We are considering whether we have a sufficiently tight policy.

Stop Relying on Russia, Ukraine Tells Europe Following Gas Shutdown

Aria Thomas

Apr 28, 2022 09:35

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Europe should wean itself off Russia's commerce after Moscow cut off gas supplies to Bulgaria and Poland for failing to pay in roubles, Ukraine said on Wednesday, as the cut revealed the continent's shortcomings and divides.


The decision, described as "blackmail" by European leaders, comes as Russia's economy wilts under sanctions and Western countries continue to deliver additional armaments to Kyiv despite Kremlin warnings to back off.


Gazprom (MCX:GAZP), Russia's monopoly on gas exports, has paused gas supply "due to a lack of rouble payments," as required in a directive issued by Russian President Vladimir Putin to mitigate the impact of sanctions.


"The sooner everyone in Europe accepts that they cannot rely on Russia for trade, the sooner stability in European markets can be guaranteed," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy stated late Wednesday.


While the European Commission's president described Gazprom's plan as "yet another attempt by Russia to use gas as a tool of blackmail," EU ambassadors pressed the executive for further clarity on whether transferring euros violated sanctions.


On May 2, France will host a conference of the EU's energy ministers to decide how to respond to Russia's action.


Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin's spokesperson, said Russia remained a trustworthy energy source and denied engaging in blackmail.


He declined to disclose how many countries had agreed to pay for gas in roubles, although other European clients reported normal gas deliveries.


Ukraine claimed on the battlefield that Russian troops had achieved successes in the east.


Russia reported a series of explosions and a fire at an armaments storage on its side of the border. Kyiv referred to the blasts as "karma."


Ukraine claimed that Russian forces used tear gas and stun grenades to disperse a pro-Ukrainian gathering in Kherson, Ukraine's first major city. The center of Kherson was struck late Wednesday by a succession of loud explosions produced by rockets, the Ria News agency said.


The invasion of Ukraine has turned towns and cities to rubble and driven almost 5 million people to go abroad in a conflict that has sparked fears of a wider battle in the West, something that has not been considered in decades.


Moscow refers to it as a "special operation" aimed at disarming Ukraine. Ukraine and its supporters have described the conflict as an unjustified act of aggression.

FEARS OF RECESSION

Given the EU's reliance on Russian energy, the European Commission has stated that EU gas importers may participate in Russia's payment plan if certain requirements are met.


Uniper, Germany's largest importer, stated that it could pay without violating any laws. Austria and Hungary, among others, have shown a willingness to follow this path.


Bulgaria and Poland, both former Soviet satellites that have since joined the EU and NATO, are the only two European countries whose Gazprom contracts are set to expire at the end of 2022, signaling the start of their quest for alternatives.


Warsaw has been one of the Kremlin's most outspoken adversaries during the war.


Bulgaria has enjoyed warmer relations with Russia for a long time, but Prime Minister Kirill Petkov, who assumed office last year, has condemned the invasion. He was scheduled to meet Zelenskiy in Kyiv on Wednesday.


The cut-off occurs when the weather warms and the demand for gas-heated homes decreases. Poland asserts that it has adequate gas reserves, while Bulgaria seeks supplies from Greece and Turkey.


However, if the cut-off continues for several months or spreads to other countries, mayhem might ensue.


Germany, Russia's largest energy consumer, intends to phase out Russian oil imports within days, but weaning itself off Russian gas will be a much tougher issue.


Economy Minister Robert Habeck warned that a Russian energy embargo or blockade would push Germany into recession, Europe's largest economy.


According to a Russian economy ministry study, Russia's GDP could contract by as much as 12.4% this year.

KARMA OF THE 'CRUEL'

Since the Russian invasion army was repulsed last month on the borders of Kyiv, Moscow has shifted its focus to eastern Ukraine, launching a fresh attack to entirely take two provinces known as the Donbas.


Authorities reported hearing explosions early Wednesday in three Russian districts that border Ukraine, and an ammunition storage in the Belgorod area caught fire.


Kyiv has not admitted responsibility for this or previous acts, but has framed them as retaliation. On social media, presidential advisor Mikhaylo Podolyak wrote, "Karma is a nasty thing."


According to an assistant to the mayor of Mariupol's destroyed port city, Russian soldiers have resumed their assault on the Azovstal steel complex, where fighters and some civilians have taken refuge.


Concerns have grown about the violence spreading to neighboring Moldova, where pro-Russian rebels have blamed Ukraine for reported attacks this week in their territory, which has been held by Russian soldiers since the 1990s.


Transdniestria's authorities reported that shots were fired across the border from Ukraine on Wednesday.


Ukraine has accused Russia of attempting to orchestrate 'false flag' assaults in the region, while Moldova's pro-Western government has accused separatists of inciting war.