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1. Federal Reserves Daly: If the Iran conflict is resolved quickly and oil prices fall, a rate cut is "not impossible." He believes the possibility of a rate hike is lower than a rate cut or maintaining the current rate. The real question is whether the ceasefire can last; if it does, then the CPI data is irrelevant. 2. Data from the U.S. Labor Department on Friday showed that the March CPI rose 3.3% year-on-year, significantly higher than Februarys 2.4%. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, rose 2.6%, slightly below the market expectation of 2.7%. Energy prices rose 12.5% year-on-year in March, a significant acceleration from Februarys 0.5%. Gasoline prices rose 18.9%, and fuel oil rose 44.2%. The report reflects the impact of the Iran war on U.S. inflation for the first time. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted shipping and pushed up crude oil and gasoline prices last month. 3. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Seasonally adjusted energy inflation in the U.S. rose 10.9% month-on-month in March, the largest increase since September 2005; unadjusted energy inflation rose 12.5% year-on-year. Seasonally adjusted gasoline inflation rose 21.2% month-over-month in March, the largest increase since records began in 1967, while unadjusted gasoline inflation rose 18.9% year-over-year. Seasonally adjusted fuel oil inflation rose 30.7% month-over-month in March, the largest increase since February 2000; unadjusted fuel oil inflation rose 44.2% year-over-year. 4. Saudi Arabia’s oil exports through the Red Sea remain stable as the impact of the drone attack on its east-west pipeline has not yet materialized. Wednesday’s attack damaged one of 11 pumping stations along the pipeline. The Saudi Press Agency reported on Thursday, citing energy ministry officials, that this reduced pipeline capacity by 700,000 barrels per day. 5. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released data showing that private exporters reported sales of 125,640 tons of corn to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2025/2026 marketing year. The U.S. corn marketing year begins on September 1. 6. U.S. Vice President Vance has departed for Islamabad, Pakistan, aboard Air Force Two to participate in U.S.-Iran talks. The entourage also included US Middle East envoy Witkov and Trumps son-in-law Kushner. Before boarding, Vance stated that he looked forward to the upcoming negotiations with Iran and believed the talks in Islamabad would be positive. 7. After data showed that gasoline prices rose due to the Iran war and US inflation accelerated in March, bond traders slightly reduced their bets on a single Federal Reserve rate cut this year. Fridays interest rate swap market pricing showed that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed this year was about one-third, little changed from before the data release. 8. A spokesperson for the Khatham Anbia Central Headquarters of the Iranian Armed Forces issued a statement on the 10th, saying that due to the repeated breaches of trust by the US and Israel in the past, the Iranian Armed Forces remain fully alert and ready to open fire at any time. 9. Data released by the LME showed that due to supply disruptions caused by the Iran war, Indian aluminum was temporarily unable to be delivered, and the proportion of Russian aluminum available in London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses jumped from 60% in February to 92% in March.The Kuwaiti Army stated that the Iranian attack targeted National Guard facilities, resulting in multiple injuries.Palantir (PLTR.N) narrowed its losses to less than 2%, after falling 6% earlier.Market news: Asian countries are urging the United States to extend sanctions waivers on Russian oil.According to Hong Kong Stock Exchange documents, Zhuhai Baofengtang Semiconductor Co., Ltd. has submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

Natural Gas Prices Continue to Rise, Reaching a Multi-Month High

Drake Hampton

Mar 31, 2022 10:17

Significant Insights

  • Natural gas prices have surged significantly.

  • Prices finished close to a four-month high.

  • The weather is forecast to be typical.

 

Natural gas prices spiked on Wednesday, ahead of the Energy Information Administration's inventory update on Thursday. Estimize, a survey provider, anticipates a 14 Bcf drop in inventories. The weather is forecast to remain normal during the next six to ten and eight to fourteen days, with high temperatures along the Atlantic and Pacific coasts.

 

Residential and commercial sectors drive reduce natural gas consumption in the United States. Natural gas usage in the United States decreased by 18.6 percent in the previous report week. Week over week, natural gas use for power generation decreased by 7.0 percent. Consumption in the industrial sector declined by 5.5 percent. Consumption fell by 37.1 percent in the residential and commercial sectors.

Technical analysis

Natural gas prices finished at a multi-month high on Wednesday and are ready to test new highs. Near the October highs of 6.46, resistance is present.

 

The short-term momentum indicator has turned positive as a crossing buy signal was given by the fast stochastic. Prices have re-entered overbought territory, with the Fast Stochastic reading 93, exceeding the overbought trigger level of 80.

 

The medium-term trend has shifted to the positive. The MACD (moving average convergence divergence) indicator generates a buy signal upon crossover. This occurs when the MACD line (the 12-day moving average divided by the 26-day moving average) crosses over the MACD line's 9-day moving average.


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